Extended Abstract (112K)12C.7
Modeling Tropical Cyclone Gridded Wind Field Forecasts
Ken R. Waters, NOAA/NWS, Honolulu, HI; and J. Cline
This paper documents a mechanism used to convert a deterministic tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast into an interpolated grid of wind speed values. Forecasts issued by one or more tropical cyclone centers will be used as input to the model. The technique builds on work done by others to apply an exponential model to tropical cyclones. It further advances the work by building a parameterized wind speed model that takes into account factors such as wind field asymmetries, environmental (external) wind fields, and variations in storm factors such as intensity with time and forward movement. Grid point wind values will be compared to in situ observational data such as buoys, airports, and automated systems. The resultant gridded data fields will be evaluated for usefulness in initializing gridded wind values that are used in the National Weather Service's new digital forecast system known as the National Digital Forecast Database.
It has become apparent that meteorologists in NWS forecast offices are faced with a challenge when editing hourly or 3-hourly wind field grids based when dealing with a tropical cyclone. These meteorologists need a usable starting point, or initial wind field at all required forecast hours, which can be further modified using the Graphical Forecast Editor to reflect local effects, as needed. It is hoped that this wind model will be useful in reducing this challenging workload.
Supplementary URL: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/presentations/Miami-2004/
Session 12C, Tropical cyclone simulation I
Thursday, 6 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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