NGGPS Supported Unified Forecast System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP: Plans for Improved Hurricane Forecast Guidance from FV3GFS

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with Unified Forecast System development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales.

Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The R2O plans are further facilitated through the development of Community Common Unified Modeling Infrastructure (CCUMI) and Common Research and Operations Workflow (CROW).

The NCEP Unified Forecast System is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization.

This talk presents the current and future plans of the Unified Forecast System development at NCEP with special emphasis on the plans for improved forecast guidance from FV3GFS for hurricanes. Strategies for development of moving nests for FV3GFS, which are expected to provide very high resolution modeling capabilities required for intensity and structure forecasts, will be discussed along with other tropical cyclone specific developments in the context of FV3GFS for hurricanes.