J13.5
TRMM and the forecasting of the 2002-03 El Niņo
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Adler
Fine-scale information about sea surface temperature and precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in the Indo-Pacific sector is used to explore the prediction of the 2002-03 El Niņo. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal tropical climate variability and is pronounced in the Indo-Pacific sector in boreal winter. The MJO is thought to be a stochastic forcing mechanism for the development of El Niņo. However, many studies of MJO have relied on spatially coarse outgoing longwave radiation data sets, a common proxy for tropical convection. However, actual precipitation measurements from TRMM and other satellites are available at 0.25-degree resolution. This allows for an exploration of the complex interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land as the MJO complex passes through the Maritime Continent. A recently developed El Niņo prediction index, which uses precipitation information in the eastern Indian Ocean, successfully forecasted the onset of the 2002-03 El Niņo. The physical mechanisms behind this statistical forecast need further study. Initial indications are that the amount of precipitation, the speed of the systems and their preferred track from the Indian to Pacific basins are potentially important for wind bursts in the western Pacific and the development of El Niņo. TRMM will help clarify these issues.
Joint Session 13, Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C
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