J13.13
Seasonal Forecasting Using Natural Analog Ensembles
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Ross, J. M. Fritsch, C. Hosler, R. H. Grumm, and R. James
Using the 1948-2002 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, an objective ensemble natural analog system is employed to produce monthly-mean forecasts of tropical 1000-500hPa thickness out to two years forecast length. When averaged over the entire 54-year verification period (1948-2000), the analog system is more skillful that either climatology or persistence out to 24 months and out to 8.5 months compared to an immediately previous 10-year climatology. Heidke skill score values vary seasonally, but average 0.43 for a 3-month forecast, 0.37 for a 6-month forecast, 0.34 for a 9-month forecast, 0.33 for a 12-month forecast, and 0.32 for an 18-month forecast. This presentation will outline the approach and give a brief overview of the results. The results will be examined in more detail in the related poster presentation given by the same authors.
Joint Session 13, Seasonal to interannual climate prediction with emphasis on the 2002 El Nino (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp. on Forecasting Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean (Room 6C)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-4:30 PM, Room 6C
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