* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Monday, 15 January 2007
	9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday Plenary Session for the Presidential Forum (Presidential Forum will then run parallel to other sessions throughout the day)
	10:45 AM-2:30 PM, Monday, 212A Joint Session 7 Measurements and Modeling of Aerosols (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
CoChair: Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
10:45 AM J7.1 Improvements to Aerosol Size Distributions in CMAQ   Robert A. Elleman, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Covert 11:00 AM J7.2 Simulating Secondary Organic Aerosol: Accuracy versus Computational Efficiency   Ping Liu, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang J7.4 Coupling of CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism with MADRID aerosol module in WRF/Chem   Jianping Huang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang, X. Hu, and K. L. Schere 11:15 AM J7.3 Size Distribution and Hygroscopic Properties of Agricultural Aerosols   Naruki Hiranuma, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. D. Brooks, B. W. Auvermann, and R. Littleton 11:30 AM J7.5 Evaluation of the aerosol direct effect on a mesoscale simulation   Steven E. Peckham, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado & NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. A. McKeen, J. D. Fast, R. Zaveri, and S. Chung 11:45 AM Recognition of NASA Student Travel Award Winners in the field of Atmospheric Chemistry   12:00 PM Lunch Break   1:30 PM J7.6 Dust sandstorm dynamics analysis in Northern China by means of atmospheric, emission, dispersion modeling   Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology and National Research Council/IBIMET-CNR, Firenze, FI, Italy; and L. Bottai, C. Busillo, F. Calastrini, G. Gualtieri, F. Guarnieri, P. Scalas, and L. Torriano J7.7 Episodic particulate matter modeling in a semi-arid/arid area over the U.S./Mexico border: Incorporating a wind-blown dust emissions model into the MODELS-3/CMAQ system   Yu-Jin Choi, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and H. J. S. Fernando 1:45 PM J7.8 The Instability associated with the Cross-Atlantic Transport of Saharan Dust and its Meteorological Implications   Sun Wong, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, P. R. Colarco, and A. Da Silva 2:00 PM J7.9 Comparison of AEROSE I and AEROSE II Surface Level Ozone Measurements and Ozonesonde Profiles within Saharan Dust and Biomass Burning Plumes   Michelle D. Hawkins, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and V. R. Morris, N. R. Nalli, and E. Joseph
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall C Joint Poster Session 1 Climate change: in Hydrometeorological Variables, Detection & Attribution (Joint Between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 23rd Conference on IIPS, Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather, and the 5th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to Environmental Sciences)
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
JP1.1 Spatial coherence of rainfall variations using the Oklahoma Mesonet   K. Margret Sturgis, Oklahoma Climatological Survey and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson, M. B. Richman, and D. J. Karoly   Poster Moved. New Paper Number 4A.11A     JP1.2A What can we (not?!) say about historical temperature changes from Radiosonde records?   Peter Thorne, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and M. McCarthy and H. Titchner   JP1.3 Blocking in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: An update to include 2000 - 2006   Joseph V. Clark, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. M. Mihalka and A. R. Lupo   JP1.4 GPS radio occultations of arctic temperature profiles   Jaclyn Trzaska, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and J. Francis and D. E. Veron   JP1.5 Identifying Connections Between Temperature Trends and Station Changes in the United States   Rebecca A. Smith, Florida State Univ./COAPS, Tallahasssee, FL; and J. J. O'Brien   JP1.6 Comparison of glacier-inferred temperatures with observations and climate model simulations   Diandong Ren, Univ. of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and D. J. Karoly   JP1.7 Assessing the trends of Southern Hemisphere transient wave activity in reanalyses and rawinsonde observations   Yanjuan Guo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang   JP1.8 Comparative study on the land-cover change and global warming impacts on regional climate in Northeast Asia   Tomonori Sato, Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and F. Kimura   Poster JP1.9 has been moved. New paper number 2B.7A in the 23IIPS Program     JP1.10 The search for ocean influences on midlatitude cyclones   Richard E. Danielson, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada   JP1.11 Regional climate change expected in Eastern/Central Europe   Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, C. Torma, and A. Hunyady   JP1.12 Increased Precipitation is Climate Change imposed by Anthropogenic Activities   Pankaj Kumar Sinha, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Cochin, India   JP1.13 Impact of land cover on the regional response to global warming   Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and Y. K. Lim and E. Kalnay   JP1.14 Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis   James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL   JP1.15 Detected trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Central/Eastern European region   Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall C Joint Poster Session 2 Model Diagnostics and General Climate Variability (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
JP2.1 Impact of precipitation characteristics on model's horizontal resolution and orography   Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and O. Arakawa   JP2.2 Low-level cloud amount simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size   Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Inoue and H. Kawai   JP2.3 Downscaled 1997/1998 Summer over East Asia using the Regional Spectral Model   E-Hyung Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong   JP2.4 Extreme hydrologic events from an ensemble of CCSM3 climate change simulations   Marcia L. Branstetter, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. J. Erickson   JP2.5 Implementation of a Double Fourier Series (DFS) Dynamic Core in a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model   Hoon Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and H. B. Cheong and S. Y. Hong   JP2.6 The Role of MJO in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Nińo in the POAMA1 System   Li Shi, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang   JP2.8 NCEP global ensemble based anomaly forecast   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth   JP2.9 Assessment of the Severe Weather Environment in North America Simulated by Global Climate Models   Patrick T. Marsh, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Brooks and D. J. Karoly   JP2.10 Assessment of global climate models performance from the characterization of duration, intensity and frequency of daily rainfall. Application to African Sahel   Amadou Idrissa Bokoye, EC/MSC/Ouranos Consortium, Inc., Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. Gachon, N. Gauthier, D. Parishkura, A. Cotnoir, G. Vigeant, and J. Milton   JP2.11 A successful story in predicting NAM events by the operational NCEP's GFS model   Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and C. S. Shin and H. Van den Dool   JP2.12 Asian dust - pollution interactions inducing more solar radiation absorption: Results from ground-based sky radiation measurements   B. J. Sohn, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Nakajima, H. W. Chun, and K. Aoki   JP2.13 Interaction between dust storms, precipitation and Gulf of California moisture surges in the Paso del Norte region   Karina Apodaca, Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris, A. Y. Lozano, J. Negrete, and D. R. M. Fitzgerald   JP2.14 Climatology of sub-monthly wave patterns associated with tropical cyclone tracks over the East Asian monsoon area during July-August season   Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu   JP2.15 Recurving typhoons and eastern North Pacific predictability as revealed by singular vectors   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA   JP2.16 The relationship between ENSO, PNA, and AO/NAO and extreme storminess, rainfall, and temperature variability during the Florida dry season: thoughts on predictability and attribution   Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL   JP2.17 Atmospheric blocking and patterns of low-frequency variability arising from the breaking of upper level Rossby waves   T. J. Woollings, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn   JP2.18 Comparison of observed and modeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation   Dmitry Kiktev, Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia; and J. Caesar and L. V. Alexander   JP2.19 Understanding the climatology of small-scale patterns of orographic precipitation: progress from the Olympic Mountains   Justin R. Minder, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. M. Anders, G. H. Roe, and D. Durran   JP2.20 Innovations in Spatial Analysis in the Bureau of Meteorology   David Jones, BOM, Vic., 3001, Australia; and D. X. Wang, N. Plummer, D. I. Grant, and A. Rea   JP2.21 Links between West Africa monsoon variability and summer anomalies in the western Mediterranean   Marina Baldi, IBIMET/CNR, Rome, Italy; and G. A. Dalu and M. Gaetani   JP2.22 On the mechanisms resulting in post-fire flash floods: a case study   Lee Tryhorn, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and A. Lynch and R. Abramson   JP2.23 Climate Variability and the Texas Fire Weather Season of 2005–2006: An Historic Perspective of a Statewide Disaster   Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. R. Patrick and M. C. Oaks   JP2.24 Bioclimatological aspects of sudden cardiovascular death cases   Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, Z. Kis, K. Toro, G. Dunai, N. Szlavik, and E. Keller   JP2.25 Southern California upwelling: Is recent weakening a result of global warming?   Steve LaDochy, California State Univ., Los Angeles, CA; and P. Ramirez and W. C. Patzert   JP2.26 Abrupt Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ into the Summer Hemisphere   Peng Xian, Columbia Univ. and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY; and R. L. Miller
Tuesday, 16 January 2007
	11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Ballroom C2 Joint Panel Discussion 1 Summer 2006 Extreme Drought, Floods, Heat (Joint between the Impacts of 2006's Weather: Major Stories of the Year and the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
Panelists: Roger S. Pulwarty, (Drought in the Southwest) NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; David R. Vallee, (Floods in New England) NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA; Timothy J. Brown, (Wildfires in the Plains) DRI, Reno, NV; Laurence S. Kalkstein, (The Heat Stress Index) Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; David Runyan, (Summer Heat Wave) NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ Moderator: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM Drought in the Southwest   Roger Pulwarty, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO 11:10 AM Floods in New England   David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA 11:20 AM Wildfires in the Plains   Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV 11:30 AM The Heat Stress Index   Laurence S. Kalkstein, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE 11:40 AM Summer Heat Wave   David Runyan, NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ 11:50 AM Panel Discussion
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Tuesday, 212A Joint Session 8 Air Quality and Climate Change (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
CoChair: Brian K. Lamb, Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA
1:30 PM J8.1 Assessment of Long-Term Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Air Quality   Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. Leung 1:45 PM J8.2 Global climate change impacts on air quality in North America   Efthimios Tagaris, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and K. J. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. Russell, S. He, J. H. Woo, P. Amar, and L. R. Leung 2:00 PM J8.3 Impacts of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Emissions on Photochemical Oxidants over the Pearl River Delta Region, China   Xuemei Wang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and L. Wenshi and Z. L. Yang 2:15 PM J8.4 A comparison of AURA/MLS CO measurement with 2 global chemical models   Jonathan Jiang, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Neary, J. McConnell, H. Su, and J. Kaminski
	1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, 214D Session 1 Climate and Extreme Weather Events
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
1:30 PM 1.1 A comparison of model produced climate extremes with observed and projected trends for the 20th and 21st centuries   David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Gleason, K. E. Kunkel, and R. J. Stouffer 2:00 PM 1.2 Extremes and El Nino   Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi 2:30 PM 1.3 The ecological impacts of regional-scale drought-induced tree die-off: implications and challenges for atmospheric sciences   David D. Breshears, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 3:00 PM Coffee Break   3:30 PM 1.4 Simulating the synoptic climatology of extreme precipitation events under global warming   William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and S. S. Willis, J. C. Patton, B. R. Schwedler, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle 4:00 PM 1.5 Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change   Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and J. Pal, R. J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi 4:15 PM 1.6 Occurrence of heavy precipitation and streamflow in Southern California   Theresa M. Carpenter, Hydrologic Research Center/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and K. P. Georgakakos 4:30 PM 1.7 Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend?   Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Webster 4:45 PM 1.8 Can we detect climate trends in extreme tropical cyclones?   Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. A. Knaff 5:00 PM 1.9 The water and energy budgets of hurricanes and implications for climate change   Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Fasullo 5:15 PM 1.10 Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century   Gemma T. Narisma, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI; and R. Licker and J. Foley
Wednesday, 17 January 2007
	8:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, 214A Joint Session 3 Forecasting Water Cycle Components at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and Climate Aspects of Hydrometeorology)
Organizers: Ana P. Barros, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:30 AM J3.1 Prediction of Elements of the Hydrologic Cycle at Climatic Time Scale: Observations and Prospects (INVITED)   Upmanu Lall, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York, NY 9:00 AM J3.2 Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Spatio-Temporal Downscaling of Seasonal Climate to Daily Weather Forecasts   Abedalrazq F. Khalil, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and H. H. Kwon and U. Lall 9:15 AM J3.3 Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the continental U.S. regional climate using the Eta/SSiB Regional Climate Model   Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic, Z. Janjic, F. Mesinger, and K. Mitchell 9:30 AM J3.4 Climatic aspects of hydrometeorology and water resources – the role of drought (INVITED)   Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 10:00 AM Coffee Break   10:30 AM J3.5 When model results and observations disagree . . .   Andrew A. Lacis, NASA/GISS, New York, NY 10:45 AM J3.6 Extreme Floods in Urban Watersheds (INVITED)   James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ 11:15 AM J3.7 Cool season heavy rainfall events over west central Florida   Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWSFO, Ruskin, FL; and A. Reynes and J. C. McMichael 11:30 AM J3.8 An Examination of Central Gulf Coast Rainfall Quantities to Characterize the Hydrologic Impacts of Gulf of Mexico Tropical Systems   Suzanne Van Cooten, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK 11:45 AM J3.9 Effect of Mean Midtropospheric Winds on Monthly Precipitation Anomolies in the Central Rocky Mountain Region   Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS
	8:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, 214D Session 2 Linking Weather and Climate
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
8:30 AM 2.1 Weather - Climate and Subseasonal Forecasting   Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry 9:00 AM 2.2 Tropical cyclones, continental closed anticyclones and organized mesoscale systems as important links between high-impact weather and seasonal climate   Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY 9:30 AM 2.3 The Impact of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Weather   Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Suarez, P. Pegion, Y. Chang, and J. Bacmeister 10:00 AM Coffee Break   10:30 AM 2.4 Coupling of water vapor convergence, clouds, precipitation and land-surface processes in the climate over land   Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT 11:00 AM 2.5 From Cloud Organization to Climate Sensitivity—The Cloud Object Approach   Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki and T. Wong 11:30 AM 2.6 Predictability and Forecast Skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation   Duane Edward Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. L. Li, S. D. Schubert, B. P. Kirtman, H. L. Pan, and A. Vintzileos 11:45 AM 2.7 A unified approach to weather, climate, and earth-system prediction for the 21st century   Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO
	1:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, 214A Session 3 THORPEX Special Session: Impacts of Processes over the Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on Mid-Latitude Weather and Predictability
1:30 PM 3.1 US THORPEX: Science, Structure, and Activities   Jim Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and L. Bosart 1:45 PM 3.2 International Prospective on Research Plans for the Tropical Western Pacific   Gilbert Brunet, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada 2:15 PM 3.3 Interactions of middle latitude troughs and tropical disturbances on 4-6 week time scales   John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro 2:30 PM 3.4 The influence of the MJO on Midlatitude statistical predictability   Richard Kleeman, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY; and M. Kadota 2:45 PM 3.5 Extratropical Forecast Errors Associated with Tropical Heating Anomalies   Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Hakim 3:00 PM Coffee Break   3:30 PM 3.6 Analysis of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone structure through extratropical transition   Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. Veren 4:00 PM 3.7 Research Issues on Tropical Convection and Two-way Interaction with the Large-scale Flow   Chidong Zhang, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. B. Parsons, J. Tribbia, and M. Moncrieff 4:30 PM 3.8 A Mass Circulation Paradigm for the Annular Mode Variability   Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. -. C. Ren 4:45 PM 3.9 Bridging the gap between weather and climate   Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell and Y. H. Kuo 5:00 PM 3.10 Quantifying dynamical predictability by time-dependent exponent curves: the technique of pseudo-ensembles   Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Gao and J. Hu 5:15 PM 3.11 Linking weather and climate forecasting   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, 214D Session 4 Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
1:30 PM 4.1 Simulation of ocean circulation and heat content changes attributable to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols   Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ 2:00 PM 4.2 Attributing regional climate variations to tropical SST changes   Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, CDC/CIRES, Boulder, CO
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall C Joint Poster Session 4 Joint Poster: Climate & Extremes, Linking Weather and Climate (Joint with Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, and Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
JP4.1 An examination of the relationship between North Atlantic tropical storm activity and sea surface temperature using time series modeling   Jose Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY   JP4.2 Implications of enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes   Jan Kysely, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic   JP4.3 Hydrological variability and trends in global reanalyses   Junye Chen, Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC & NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. G. Bosilovich   JP4.4 An investigation of ENSO-related parameters used to predict Australian tropical cyclone activity   Hamish A. Ramsay, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, M. Leplastrier, and L. M. Leslie   Poster JP4.5 has been moved. New Paper number 2B.1A     JP4.6 The relationship between actual and potential intensities of tropical cyclones on an interannual time scale   Allison A. Wing, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. H. Sobel and S. J. Camargo   JP4.7 Observations and predictability of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Ocean   Kevin H. Goebbert, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. A. Ramsay, L. M. Leslie, and M. Leplastrier   JP4.8 Impact of ENSO, NAO, and PDO on monthly extreme temperature and precipitation   J. Brolley, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. O'Brien   JP4.9 Quantifying the influence of environmental conditions on the effect of winter wheat   Cynthia A. Whittier, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson   JP4.10 Trends in Australia's climate means and extremes: a global context   Lisa V. Alexander, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and N. Nicholls, A. Lynch, P. Hope, D. A. Collins, and B. Trewin   JP4.11 Utilizing the statistical downscaling model to project weather extremes - a Canadian example   Gary S. Lines, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and L. Titus   JP4.12 A generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators   Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer   JP4.13 Understanding the local and regional impacts of large wind farms   Amanda S. Adams, Univ. of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; and D. W. Keith   JP4.14 Western Arctic storm surge and extreme cyclones: a factorial analysis of fifty years of flooding   Amanda H. Lynch, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and L. R. Lestak, P. Uotila, E. N. Cassano, and L. Xie   JP4.15 Weather-Climate Linkage Leading to the 24-29 June 2006 Excessive East Coast Rainfall   Edward Berry, NOAA, Dodge City, KS; and K. M. Weickmann   JP4.16 Trends towards wetter hurricane basins   J. Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote   JP4.17 Tornado climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the North Central U.S.: A compositing study   Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS WFO Quad Cities IA/IL, Davenport, IA; and C. Cogil, G. Lussky, and R. Ryrholm   JP4.18 The "Perfect Storms" of 1991: An intraseasonal example of a link between weather and climate   Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart   JP4.19 The Impact of Local and Global Climate Variation/Change on Extreme Weather Events in the South Central Texas   Xianwei Wang Sr., The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX; and H. Xie and H. Sharif   JP4.20 Severe convective storms in past and future climates using a scale-spanning, multiple-model approach   Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and B. A. Halvorson, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and M. E. Baldwin   JP4.21 Predicting extreme hurricane winds in the United States   Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner   JP4.22 Interactions between flood management decisions and scientific uncertainty about the climatological risk of extreme flooding   Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, M. Downton, and E. Gruntfest   JP4.23 Influence of Climate Model Cloud and Convection Parameter Uncertainties on Present and Future Simulated Precipitation Extremes   Yi Deng, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Jackson   JP4.24 Impacts of recurving West Pacific tropical cyclones on extratropical predictability in the Northern Hemisphere   Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. Bosart   JP4.25 Identifying patterns and trends in severe storm environments using re-analysis data.   Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, H. Brooks, and B. Brown   JP4.26 ENSO and Global Daily to 3-Hourly Precipitation Extremes   Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and S. Wuensch and R. F. Adler   JP4.27 Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction   Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pena and A. Vintzileos   JP4.28 Relation between subseasonal and interannual variability of Indian monsoon and potential for seasonal predictability in a coupled GCM   Deepthi Achuthavarier, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and V. Krishnamurthy
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, 214D Session 5 Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change II
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
4:00 PM 5.1 Can regional surface warming trends be attributed to anthropogenic climate change??   David J. Karoly, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 4:30 PM 5.2 Assessment of climate variability and change in the New York Metropolitan Region   Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA/GISS, New York, NY 5:00 PM 5.3 Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003   William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 5.4 Impact of a greener West Africa on the Mediterranean climate   Marina Baldi, IBIMET - CNR, Rome, Italy; and G. A. Dalu and M. Segnalini
Thursday, 18 January 2007
	1:30 PM-5:45 PM, Thursday, 214D Session 6 Impacts of Aerosols on Weather and Climate
1:30 PM 6.1 Aerosol-Climate Research: The Kaufman-MODIS Era   V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA 2:00 PM 6.2 Wind and water supply reduction by aerosol particles   Mark Z. Jacobson, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and Y. J. Kaufman 2:15 PM 6.3 The impacts of aerosols on Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation   Kyu-Myong Kim, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. M. Lau 2:30 PM 6.4 "Weekend effect" for precipitation over eastern U.S.: Evidence for midweek intensification by pollution and historical evolution   Thomas L. Bell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim, D. Rosenfeld, J. M. Yoo, M. I. Lee, and M. Hahnenberger 2:45 PM 6.5 Global aerosol climatology in the EOS satellite era: Sources, transport, and atmospheric effects using the MODIS satellite data and the GOCART global model   Mian Chin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, MD; and L. A. Remer, T. Diehl, and H. Yu 3:00 PM Coffee Break   3:30 PM 6.6 MODIS aerosol observations used to constrain dust distributions and lifecycle in the NASA GEOS-5 model   Peter R. Colarco, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and E. Nowottnick and A. Da Silva 3:45 PM 6.7 How 3D science can help to correctly interpret satellite data on aerosol-cloud interaction   Alexander Marshak, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Wen, T. Varnai, and R. F. Cahalan 4:00 PM 6.8 Possibilities and Limitations of Current-Generation Satellite Aerosol Passive Remote Sensing, and Hopes for the Future   Ralph A. Kahn, JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and J. Martonchik, D. Diner, B. Gaitley, M. Garay, O. Kalashnikova, D. Nelson, K. Yau, and T. M. Team 4:15 PM 6.9 Urban Aerosol Impact on Surface Energy and Hydrologic Cycles   Menglin Jin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. M. Shepherd 4:30 PM 6.10 Stratocumulus sensitivity to aerosols and dynamics   Guillaume Sadler Mauger, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. R. Norris 4:45 PM 6.11 An aerosol climatology from MODIS observations and products   Lorraine A. Remer, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kleidman and Y. Kaufman 5:00 PM 6.12 Remote sensing of the aerosol-cloud boundary   Jens Redemann, Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Ventura, CA; and Q. Zhang, P. B. Russell, P. Pilewskie, J. Livingston, B. Schmid, L. A. Remer, and R. A. Kahn 5:15 PM 6.13 Aerosol retrievals using airborne lidar and MODIS measurements   Richard A. Ferrare, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and E. V. Browell, Y. Kaufman, J. F. Leon, M. Chin, C. Butler, V. G. Brackett, S. Burton, G. Chen, A. Clarke, P. B. Russell, J. Redemann, and L. A. Remer 5:30 PM 6.14 The Impact of Aerosols on the Color and Brightness of the Sun and Sky   Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY

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