15A.4
Climate and wind energy: recent trends in wind speed and potential effects of climate change
Jeffrey M. Freedman, AWS Truewind LLC, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack and B. H. Bailey
Climate variability and energy consumption are inextricably intertwined. For wind power applications, variations in weather and climate play a critical role in determining accurate site assessments for long-term energy generation. Thus, the robustness and representativeness of existing climate data sets and identifying past and future trends in the available wind resource are crucial to the ability of the nation to achieve the nation's target of producing 20% of electrical demand through growth in the wind energy industry.
There have been relatively few studies of long-term wind speed trends on regional scales in the U.S. or other parts of the world, especially at the heights of the larger wind turbines (about 80 m; but see. e.g. Klink 2002). Only in recent years has attention turned to the potential effects of global climate change on wind power production. Results from downscaling of different Global Climate Models (GCMs) are inconclusive as to future affects on low-level wind speeds (Pryor et al. 2006), with some areas experiencing a net increase in wind speeds and other areas showing a decrease. More importantly, areas within the U.S. that are most susceptible to climate change also contain the greatest wind resource (for example, the Great Plains and the near and offshore waters). Here, we present preliminary analysis of wind speed trends over Canada and the U.S. using data from long-term (50 years) climate and rawinsonde stations. In addition, we will present estimates of the change in low-level wind speeds for a variety of climate change scenarios and predicted changes in future wind energy production by downscaling results from this analysis through the use of a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model.
Recorded presentationSession 15A, Detection and attribution of climate change: Part IV
Thursday, 24 January 2008, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, 215-216
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