13A.5
Attributing Anthropogenic Climate Influence on Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems
David J. Karoly, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and C. Rosenzweig
The IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) found, with very high confidence, that observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Observed changes related to regional warming has been found primarily in terrestrial biological systems, the cryosphere, and hydrologic systems. The IPCC Working Group I AR4 concluded that most of the observed increase in global average surface temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due
to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. For the first time, the IPCC extended its attribution to the continental scale, stating that it is likely that there has been a substantial anthropogenic contribution to surface temperature increases in every
continent except Antarctica since the middle of the 20th century.
Here we conduct a joint attribution study across multiple physical and biological systems at both global and continental scales by 1)demonstrating consistency of observed changes in natural systems with warming; and 2) conducting spatial analyses that show that the co-location
of observed changes in natural systems and areas of warming is highly unlikely to be due to natural variability of the climate or the systems themselves and is consistent with the responses to anthropogenic climate change. We show that changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are
occurring in regions of observed temperature increases and conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems at continental and global scales.
Recorded presentationSession 13A, Detection and attribution of climate change: Part II
Thursday, 24 January 2008, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, 215-216
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