Program: 25th Conference on Hydrology (91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Short Course Registration

WeatherFest

Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Registration continues through January 27

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Plenary Session

Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

9:00 AM

CWAC

Recorded Presentation

Panel Discussion

Communicating Weather and Climate

Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; and the IMPACTS: Weather 2010 )

Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council

Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV

9:00 AM

Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling

Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV, Chicago, IL

9:10 AM

Panelist: Claire Martin

Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

9:20 AM

Panelist: Doyle Rice

Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

9:30 AM

Panelist: Martin Storksdieck

Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Session 1A

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Role of HydroEcology on Climate I

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: David J. Gochis, NCAR; Jessica D. Lundquist, University of Washington; Enrique R. Vivoni, Arizona State Univ.

11:00 AM

1A.1

The Role of Land-Atmosphere Interactions on Droughts [INVITED]

L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and M. Huang, Y. Qian, and X. Liang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1A.2

On the use of Ecosystem Functional Types to represent lower boundary conditions in the WRF/Noah Model

Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Alcaraz-Segura and S. J. Lee

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1A.3

Multi-variate evaluation of land surface model performance in a semi-arid, complex terrain pine forest

David J. Gochis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, A. A. Turnipseed, J. Hu, F. Dominguez, and P. Harley

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

Impact of Weather and Climate Extremes on Hydrologic Processes, Responses and Hazards I

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Brent Bower, NOAA/NWS; Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS

11:00 AM

1B.1

Flooding in western Washington: The connection to atmospheric rivers

Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. J. Schick, F. M. Ralph, M. Hughes, and G. A. Wick

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

1B.2

On the operational use of an enhanced observing network for the Howard Hanson Dam hazard

Brent Bower, NOAA/NWS, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1B.3

Extreme rainfall frequency in the Atlanta metropolitan area: An analysis of September 2009

Laura Griffith Belanger, NOAA/NWS, Peachtree City, GA

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1B.4

A look back at 2010's notable precipitation events in the United States using CoCoRaHS (The Community Collaborative, Rain, Hail and Snow Network) Observations

Zach Schwalbe, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. J. Doesken, H. Reges, J. Turner, and N. Newman

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 2A

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Role of HydroEcology on Climate II

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: David J. Gochis, NCAR; Jessica D. Lundquist, University of Washington; Enrique R. Vivoni, Arizona State Univ.

1:30 PM

2A.1

Seasonal climate transitions in New England

Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2A.2

Spatiotemporal variations in evapotranspiration partitioning within the North American monsoon region: Role of vegetation dynamics

Enrique R. Vivoni, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and L. A. Mendez-Barroso

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2A.3

Impacts of beetle-kill and wildland fire on regional water and energy cycles in western North America [INVITED]

Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Wiedinmyer, M. Barlage, Y. Zhang, J. A. Hicke, and A. J. H. Meddens

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

Impact of Weather and Climate Extremes on Hydrologic Processes, Responses and Hazards II

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Brent Bower, NOAA/NWS; Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

2B.1

Macro Trigger Point Thresholds for Longer Forecast Lead Times on the Green River

Bradley Colman, NOAA/NWS, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2B.2

Extreme Precipitation over the West Coast of North America: Is There a Trend?

Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Warner and A. Skalenakis

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2B.3

What if the 1–4 May 2010 Historic Nashville, Tennessee Flood Occurred Across East Tennessee?

Brian M. Boyd, NOAA/NWSFO, Morristown, TN; and T. W. Troutman, J. S. Graschel, and S. Roberts

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

2:15 PM

2B.4

Mesoscale controls on the mountainside snow line

Justin R. Minder, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and D. Durran and G. H. Roe

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 1

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Role of HydroEcology on Climate

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: David J. Gochis, NCAR; Jessica D. Lundquist, University of Washington; Enrique R. Vivoni, Arizona State Univ.

15

Estimating evapotranspiration (ET) using satellite sensors in the North American Monsoon region in western Mexico

Paper 16 has been moved. New paper number is 3A.2A.

17

Understanding heat transfer and vapor transport in the shallow subsurface

Martine Rutten, University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; and S. C. Steele-Dunne and N. van de Giesen

18

Effects of vegetation dynamics on evapotranspiration and soil moisture in northwestern Mexico

Qiuhong Tang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Munoz-Arriola, E. R. Vivoni, and D. P. Lettenmaier

Handout (431.6 kB)

19

Vegetation feedback may reduce climatic aridity over the contiguous United States in a 2xCO2 situation

Chang-Eui Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. J. Jeong and C. H. Ho

20

Estimating energy fluxes in the North American Monsoon region using flux tower and satellite data

Dea Doklestic, New Haven, CT; and R. Smith

21

Evaluating regional impacts of spring snow conditions on early warm season precipitation in central Canada

Hua Su, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Dickinson

22

Change in land cover in ecological zones of Mongolia Using Long-Term Remotely Sensed Vegetation Index NDVI (1982–2008)

Battumur Tserenchunt Sr., Dryland Sustainability Institute of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; and T. Chuluun

Handout (2.3 MB)

23

The Impact of Tree Line Shifts on Orographic Cloud Habits over the Andes

Xiaoming Sun, Duke University, Durham, NC; and A. P. Barros

24

Evaluating the role of vegetation dynamics and complex topography on land surface fluxes using a tree-shrub-grass competition model in a semiarid landscape

Xiaochi Zhou, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. Istanbulluoglu

25

Impacts of variable agricultural extensification on regional-scale hydrology: the case of the Mississippi River Basin

Christopher D. Frans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Munoz-Arriola, E. Istanbulluoglu, and D. P. Lettenmaier

26

Near-surface atmospheric response to irrigation over the United States: A model based simulation with a regional atmospheric model coupled to a land surface model and an irrigation model

Arturo I. Quintanar, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI; and M. Ozdogan

Poster Session 2

Impact of Weather and Climate Extremes on Hydrologic Processes, Responses and Hazards

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Brent Bower, NOAA/NWS; Bradley R. Colman, NOAA/NWS

27

High- resolution observations and modeling of precipitation processes in the Great Smoky Mountains: the importance of getting the physics right

Ana P. Barros, Duke University, Durham, NC; and O. P. Prat, D. Miller, A. Wilson, and J. Tao

28

Assessing the potential for changes in extreme precipitation events across the Colorado Front Range

Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, J. Barsugli, L. D. Brekke, J. England, S. Gangopadhyay, D. Raff, and J. Soddell

29

Urbanization impact on summer convective storm and flood magnitudes in the Great Lakes region

Laura C. Bowling, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and G. Yang, L. Ming, K. A. Cherkauer, D. Niyogi, and B. C. Pijanowski

30

Common environmental parameters associated with heavy precipitation events over Louisiana, northeast Texas, and southwest Arkansas

Brandi Richardson, NOAA/NWS, Shreveport, LA; and J. Hansford and K. Falk

Manuscript (984.5 kB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

33

Synoptic drivers of storm surge in Kotzebue Sound

Austin Cross, IARC, Fairbanks, AK; and D. E. Atkinson

32

Destruction along the Yukon River: a summary of the 2009 spring breakup flooding and the National Weather Service River Watch program

Poster Session 3

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS; Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

34

COMET hydrometeorological training: hydrology, QPF, QPE, drought, and verification

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and W. Abshire

35

Q2 radar QPE quality index: an attempt to quantify radar QPE uncertainties in a national radar network

Jian Zhang, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. Qi

Paper 36 has been moved. New paper number is 3B.5A.

37

A trial of ensemble flood simulation experiment based upon TIGGE data with a coupled atmosphere-hydrology model

Ziyan Zheng, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China; and W. Zhang

38

A continental scale daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges—APHRODITE project

Atsushi Hamada, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan; and K. Kamiguchi, O. Arakawa, N. Yasutomi, and A. Yatagai

39

Improved Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model calibrations from bias-corrected NEXRAD radar based precipitation estimates

Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH; and S. Young

40

A case study: calculating a precipitation frequency curve using L-moment statistics with emphasis on the uncertainties in the analysis

Victoria Lynn Sankovich, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and J. England, Jr.

Manuscript (174.4 kB)

Handout (208.3 kB)

41

Effects of snowflake characteristics on the collection efficiency of snow gauge

Julie M. Theriault, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Ikeda, R. Rasmussen, S. Landolt, S. Ziegler, and A. Jachcik

Handout (2.0 MB)

Joint Session 1

Communicating with Technology (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Rajul Pandya, UCAR

4:00 PM

J1.1

Integrating air quality tools with the Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Narasimhan Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and M. Rorig, T. Strand, T. J. Brown, S. Raffuse, P. Lahm, and T. Zimmerman

4:15 PM

J1.2

Using YouTube Videos to Communicate Science

Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and T. Nakamura and M. Dunlap

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J1.3

Commuicating Climate Science fo the General Public

Andrew Freedman, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and H. Cullen and M. McGuirk

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J1.4

Utility of 2D/3D visualization methods in analyzing and disseminating flood information

Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and P. Amburn, D. Reed, and D. Welch

Recorded Presentation

J1.5

PAPER WITHDRAWN

5:00 PM

J1.5A

Undergraduates using multimedia to present climate research in their own words: An overview of the Communicating Climate Change program at the University of North Dakota

Gretchen Mullendore, University of North Dakota , Grand Forks, ND; and L. Munski, A. Kirilenko, F. Remer, and M. Baker

Recorded Presentation

J1.6

Communicating with Technology in Large Classes

Session 3A

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and the Role of HydroEcology on Climate III

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: David J. Gochis, NCAR; Jessica D. Lundquist, University of Washington; Enrique R. Vivoni, Arizona State Univ.

4:00 PM

3A.1

Observational diagnostics of soil moisture-climate interactions as constraints to IPCC climate projections

Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and P. Ciais, M. Reichstein, E. L. Davin, B. Orlowsky, and A. J. Teuling

3A.2

Hydraulic redistribution and its impact on hydroclimatological predictions over North America

4:15 PM

3A.2A

Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming

Jin-Ho Yoon, PNNL, Richland, WA; and N. Zeng

4:30 PM

3A.3A

How sensitive is the North American Monsoon to land surface characteristics? An examination of land surface-atmosphere interactions using a mesoscale model for the 2004 North American Monsoon season

Wendilyn J. Kaufeld, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

3A.3

Effects of Root Water Uptake Parameterizations on Land-Atmosphere Exchanges at Local and Basin Scales

4:45 PM

3A.4

Simulated impact of vegetation across the North American monsoon region in CCSM3.5

Michael Notaro, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. S. Gutzler

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3A.5

High resolution joint atmospheric-terrestrial water balance estimations in a pre-alpine environment: comparison between stand alone, 1-way and fully 2-way coupled WRF-NDHMS simulations

Harald Kunstmann, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; and T. Rummler and D. J. Gochis

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3A.6

Soil moisture, temperature and heat flux measurements using Distributed Temperature Sensing

Susan C. Steele-Dunne, University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; and M. M. Rutten, E. Owusu-Ansah, J. Jansen, P. Stive, S. Tyler, and N. van de Giesen

Session 3B

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS; Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

4:00 PM

3B.1

CCPA Precipitation Analysis and Its Cross Validation

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Luo, Y. Zhu, P. Xie, and Y. Lin

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3B.2

Moving toward optimum use of gridded precipitation forcings in hydrologic modeling

David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Wu, F. Ding, D. A. Miller, S. Wu, and Y. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

3B.3

Analyzing the performance of the high resolution precipitation products for streamflow simulation

Ali Behrangi, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and B. Khakbaz, T. Jaw, and A. AghaKouchak

4:45 PM

3B.4

Study of Spatial Patterns of Daily Precipitation over the Western United States

Wei Chu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and X. Gao and S. Sorooshian

Recorded Presentation

3B.5

Orographic precipitation and flash flood occurrence frequency in Southern California

5:00 PM

3B.5A

Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Through Objective Evaluations during NOAA Testbed Activities

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and E. I. Tollerud, S. J. Weiss, F. E. Barthold, D. R. Novak, H. Yuan, J. H. Gotway, E. Sukovich, P. Oldenburg, W. L. Clark, A. J. Clark, F. Kong, M. Xue, M. Harrold, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3B.6

Hydrological intercomparison of quantitative precipitation estimates in the Colorado Front Range

Hernan Moreno, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and E. R. Vivoni and D. J. Gochis

Recorded Presentation

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 4

Post-stationarity? Hydrologic Analysis and Predictions in a Changing Environment I

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Michael D. Dettinger, USGS; Glenn A. Hodgkins, USGS

8:30 AM

4.1

Non-stationarity of the validity of stationarity [INVITED]

P. C. D. Milly, USGS, Princeton, NJ

8:45 AM

4.2

Hydrologic sensitivities of Colorado River runoff to changes in temperature and precipitation

Julie A. Vano, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Das and D. P. Lettenmaier

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4.3

Probabilistic climate change analysis for stormwater runoff in the Pacific Northwest

Gregory S. Karlovits, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and J. C. Adam

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.4

Climate change impacts in the Tahoe region: past and projected future trends

Robert N. Coats, Hydroikos Ltd., Berkeley, CA; and M. Costa-Cabral, M. D. Dettinger, J. Reuter, J. Riverson, G. Sahoo, G. Schladow, and B. Wolfe

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.5

Hydrologic response to climate change in selected basins across the United States throughout the 21st century

John C. Risley, USGS, Portland, OR; and H. Moradkhani, L. Hay, and S. Markstrom

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 6

Land Data Assimilation Systems: Methods and Applications I

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Cochairs: Susan C. Steele-Dunne, University of Technology; Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC; Wade T. Crow, USDA

8:30 AM

J6.1

Estimating the global terrestrial hydrologic cycle through modeling, remote sensing, and data assimilation [INVITED]

Eric F. Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Pan, A. Sahoo, J. Sheffield, and T. Troy

8:45 AM

J6.2

A Bayesian analysis scheme for estimating river depth using SWOT measurements [INVITED]

Michael Durand, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and K. Andreadis, L. Smith, and M. Mersel

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J6.3

Horizontal correlations in assimilated satellite-derived downwelling radiative fluxes

Barton A. Forman, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Margulis

Recorded Presentation

J6.4

Using Data to Detect and Resolve Model Structural Errors [INVITED]

9:15 AM

J6.4A

Contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates in a land data assimilation system

Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Q. Liu, R. Bindlish, M. Cosh, W. T. Crow, R. de Jeu, G. De Lannoy, G. J. Huffman, and T. J. Jackson

9:30 AM

J6.5

Towards assimilation methods that adequately reflect distinct sources of error: A Bayesian perspective [INVITED]

Dmitri Kavetski, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; and A. Newman, G. Evin, M. Thyer, and G. Kuczera

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 7

Special Session on the Life and Work of John Roads I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 25th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Gerald L. Potter, University of Michigan

8:30 AM

J7.1

An overview of the coupled atmosphere-wildland fire model WRF-Fire

Jan Mandel, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and J. D. Beezley and A. Kochanski

Manuscript (352.5 kB)

8:45 AM

J7.2

Exploring the possibility to Forecast Annual Mean Temperature with IPCC and AMIP Runs

Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

J7.3

California Reanalysis Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Downscaling at 10km

9:00 AM

J7.4

Analysis of seasonal climate predictability based on long term global sea surface temperature

Constantin Andronache, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J7.5

Observed climate variability and change impacts on agricultural productivity in the Midwestern US

Keith A. Cherkauer, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and V. Mishra

Recorded Presentation

Spouses' Coffee

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Poster Session 1

Land Data Assimilation Systems: Methods and Applications

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Cochairs: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC; Susan C. Steele-Dunne, TU Delft; Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

42

Evaluation of the impacts of assimilating multi-sensor snow observations on land surface processes

Sujay V. Kumar, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. H. Reichle, C. D. Peters-Lidard, M. Shaw, D. K. Hall, J. L. Foster, G. A. Riggs, and J. B. Eylander

Paper 43 has been moved. New paper number is J6.4A.

43A

(Formerly 7.4) High Spatial Resolution Observation of Rainfall from Space

James A. Weinman, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Mori, G. Levy, and F. S. Marzano

44

Field-Scale Soil Moisture Assimilation: State, Parameter or Bias Estimation?

Gabriëlle J.M. De Lannoy, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and V. Pauwels, R. H. Reichle, W. P. Kustas, T. Gish, P. R. Houser, A. Russ, and N. Verhoest

45

Investigating the impact of improved rainfall model error characterization on the assimilation of synthetic soil moisture fields in a land data assimilation system

Viviana Maggioni, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and R. H. Reichle and E. N. Anagnostou

Handout (1022.5 kB)

46

Impacts of the new satellite derived land products on mesoscale precipitation processes

Vince C. K. Wong, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ek

47

Improving simulated soil moisture states through AMSR-E data assimilation

48

Bias correction based on regime-dependent Cumulative Distribution Functions for soil moisture data assimilation in a Land Surface Model

Clay B. Blankenship, USRA, Huntsville, AL; and W. L. Crosson

Manuscript (443.9 kB)

Handout (334.2 kB)

49

Online vegetation parameter estimation using passive microwave observations for soil moisture estimation

Jean A. Fitzmaurice, USDA, Beltsville, MD; and W. T. Crow

50

Comparison analysis of water and energy fluxes and application of model products for North-American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2

Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, B. Cosgrove, L. Luo, C. Alonge, H. Wei, J. Meng, B. Livneh, D. P. Lettenmaier, V. Koren, Q. Duan, K. C. Mo, and Y. Fan

51

Evaluation and analysis of model-simulated soil temperature in the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2

Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Sheffield, M. B. Ek, H. Wei, E. F. Wood, S. Feng, L. Luo, J. Meng, and K. Mitchell

52

Surface Water and Energy Budgets for the Mississippi River Basin In Three NCEP Analyses

Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, J. Meng, and K. Mitchell

53

Distributed streamflow predictions based on precipitation data from sparse ground networks and the North American Land Data Assimilation System in Northwest Mexico

Agustin Robles-Morua, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI; and E. R. Vivoni and A. S. Mayer

54

A land data assimilation system using MODIS-derived land data and its application to WRF prediction

Yoon-Jin Lim, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Byun, T. Y. Lee, J. Kim, and M. S. Joh

Handout (1.9 MB)

55

Calibration of Three Sophisticated Operational Hydrological Forecast Models Using Land-Data Assimilation: Comparison of Results Over Selected Basins in Romania

John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC, Raleigh, NC; and D. J. Gochis, C. J. Coats Jr., J. Vukovich, and T. K. Burnet

56

NASA Water Resources Program and LDAS for Improved Water Management

David L. Toll, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Doorn

Paper 57 has been moved. New paper number is J21.4A.

58

Snow surface temperature update process in Noah land surface model: a modified approach

Rebeka Sultana, University of California, Irvine, CA; and K. L. Hsu, J. Li, and S. Sorooshian

59

Change in land cover in ecological zones of Mongolia

Battumur Tserenchunt Jr., Dryland Sustainability Institute of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Poster Session 4

Post-stationarity? Hydrologic Analysis and Predictions in a Changing Environment

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Michael D. Dettinger, USGS; Glenn A. Hodgkins, USGS

60

Loading the dice: Climate change and recent Northwest droughts

Guillaume Mauger, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. A. Mckinnon, P. W. Mote, and P. Pall

Handout (1.0 MB)

61

Trends and sensitivities in late-season snowpack in the Pacific Northwest

Guillaume Mauger, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Mantua

Handout (2.3 MB)

62

Effects of climate change on Olympic National Park flood risks

Alan F. Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. Y. Lee and I. M. Tohver

Handout (1.8 MB)

63

Climate change and heavy precipitation in the western US from regional climate models

Eric Salathe, University of Washington, Bothell, WA

64

Sensitivity of Projected Streamflow Changes to Future Scenarios in Three Hydrologic Regimes in BC

Arelia T. Werner, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; and K. E. Bennett, M. A. Schnorbus, and A. B. Berland

65

Quantifying the hydrologic impacts of mountain pine beetle and salvage harvest in the Fraser River drainage, British Columbia, Canada

Markus A. Schnorbus, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and K. E. Bennett and A. T. Werner

66

Historical climate change in New England: the importance of record length in estimating magnitude of change

Glenn A. Hodgkins, USGS, Augusta, ME

67

Stationarity, variability and change in hydrologic extremes

Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV; and K. E. Kunkel

68

On the origin of recent changes in western North American snowpack

Sarah Kapnick, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Hall

69

A study of lakes and wetlands in Africa from land surface modeling

Huilin Gao, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Bohn and D. P. Lettenmaier

70

Evaluation of three climate downscaling techniques in forcing a coupled hydrological model in a snow-dominated watershed in the Lake Tahoe basin

Benjamin J. Hatchett, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. F. Mejia, J. Huntington, and D. Koracin

71

Implications of glacier change to Upper Indus River streamflow

Bibi S. Naz, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Bowling, M. Ashfaq, and N. S. Diffenbaugh

72

Simulating climate variability and change in Central Asia using a coupled NHMM-AR1 Model

Scott Sellars, Columbia Water Center, New York City, NY; and A. W. Robertson and T. Siegfried

Handout (2.3 MB)

Poster Session 5

Progress in Estimating Land Surface Evaporation

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS; Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC

73

The fallacy of drifting snow

Edgar L. Andreas, NorthWest Research Associates, Inc., Lebanon, NH

Manuscript (251.7 kB)

Handout (318.7 kB)

74

A watershed scale Groundwater-Land-Surface Model

Yuning Shi, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and K. J. Davis and C. J. Duffy

Handout (1.7 MB)

75

Application of a Unified Land Model for estimation of the terrestrial water balance

Ben Livneh, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier and P. J. Restrepo

Handout (2.3 MB)

76

Improve the estimation of sublimation and evaporation from the ground snow surface and frozen soil in WRF

Yihua Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek

77

Multi-model land-surface evaporation with the Land Information System (LIS)

78

Regional modeling of evapotranspiration using WRF coupled to the high complexity land surface model ACASA

Liyi Xu, University of California, Davis, CA; and R. D. Pyles and K. T. Paw U

79

Use of a dual temperature-difference two-source model to estimate the turbulent energy fluxes under strongly advective conditions during BEAREX08

Joseph G. Alfieri, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and W. P. Kustas, M. C. Anderson, P. D. Colaizzi, J. H. Prueger, L. E. Hipps, J. L. Chavez, S. R. Evett, K. S. Copeland, and T. A. Howell

Handout (263.5 kB)

80

Estimating Distributed Soil Evaporation to Account for Background Evaporation Between Satellite Image Dates

Jeppe Kjaersgaard, University of Idaho, Kimberly, ID; and R. Allen, A. Kilic, I. Ratcliffe, P. Ranade, R. Trezza, and C. Robison

Handout (125.2 kB)

81

Web-based disseminating of surface energy balance evapotranspiration estimates

Amnon Nevo, Riverside Technology, inc., Fort Collins, CO; and T. C. Martin

Handout (395.6 kB)

82

Developing two long-term, daily datasets of evaporative demand across the conterminous US

Mike Hobbins, University of Kansas, Boulder, CO; and D. Streubel, K. Werner, and D. Brandon

Handout (8.5 MB)

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

Session 5

Post-stationarity? Hydrologic Analysis and Predictions in a Changing Environment II

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Michael D. Dettinger, USGS; Glenn A. Hodgkins, USGS

11:00 AM

5.1

Preparing for Water Management under a Changing Climate: Overview of Methods for Incorporating Future Climate Information into Planning Analyses [INVITED]

Levi D. Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5.2

Dynamic reservoir operations using seasonal hydrologic forecasts: managing water resources for ecological integrity

Scott Steinschneider, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and B. Pitta, R. Palmer, C. Brown, D. Ahlfeld, A. Polebitski, and K. Adamec

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.3

Management Implications of Non-Stationary Hydrology: Decision-Scale Approaches

J. R. Arnold, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, IL; and P. Wagner, S. Gangopadhyay, K. D. White, L. D. Brekke, R. Olsen, and D. Raff

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.4

Informing water management decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and non-stationarity [INVITED]

Robert Lempert, RAND, Santa Monica, IL

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 20

Land Data Assimilation Systems: Methods and Applications II

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Cochairs: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC; Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

11:00 AM

J20.1

Overview of the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Xia, E. F. Wood, J. Sheffield, B. Cosgrove, and K. Mo

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J20.2

Monitoring Many Faces of Drought over the United States based on the NLDAS systems [INVITED]

Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Xia and M. Ek

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J20.3

Validation and Assessment of Model-Simulated Soil Moisture in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2

Helin Wei, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Xia, J. Sheffield, M. B. Ek, E. F. Wood, L. Luo, J. Dong, and J. Meng

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J20.4

Evaluation and validation of model-simulated streamflow for North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2

Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Mitchell, M. B. Ek, J. Sheffield, B. Cosgrove, L. Luo, C. Alonge, H. Wei, J. Meng, B. Livneh, Q. Duan, and D. Lohmann

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Session 9

Special Session on the Life and Work of John Roads II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 25th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Michael Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC

1:30 PM

J9.1

Using SMOS to study the Mississippi River basin water budget

Alan Robock, Rutgers, The State Univ. of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and T. W. Collow

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J9.2

Hydrology in the air: the influence of irrigation in India on the atmospheric branch of the water cycle

Obbe Tuinenburg, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; and R. Hutjes

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J9.3

Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and F. R. Robertson, D. Mocko, and J. Chen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (465.2 kB)

2:15 PM

J9.4

Water balance over oceans observed from satellites

W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J9.5

Ensemble downscaling of seasonal forecasts for hydrological applications

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J9.6

How realistic is precipitation over the western U.S. and Mexico in IPCC AR4 GCMs?

Nicole J. Schiffer, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 21

Land Data Assimilation Systems: Methods and Applications III

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Cochairs: Youlong Xia, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

1:30 PM

J21.1

Development and applications of land data assimilation systems for China [INVITED]

Kun Yang, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITP-CAS), Beijing, China; and J. Qin, L. Zhao, and Y. Chen

1:45 PM

J21.2

ECMWF land surface analysis

Patricia de Rosnay, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and G. Balsamo, L. Isaksen, J. Muñoz Sabater, M. Drusch, K. Scipal, C. Albergel, J. C. Calvet, and R. Essery

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J21.3

Plans and tests for the operational implementation of the new Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS)

Stephane Belair, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Carrera, B. Bilodeau, S. J. Solomon, C. Derksen, L. Wang, and S. Leroyer

J21.4

Land Data Assimilation in the Arctic System Reanalysis

2:15 PM

J21.4A

Improving operational streamflow via remotely sensed microwave radiance data

Caleb Matthew DeChant, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and H. Moradkhani

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J21.5

Comparison of Modeled and SMOS-Observed Surface Soil Moisture Estimates in Preparation for the SMAP L4_SM Assimilation Product

Gabriëlle J.M. De Lannoy, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. H. Reichle, W. T. Crow, R. D. Koster, J. Kimball, and Q. Liu

2:45 PM

J21.6

The land data assimilation system in the NOAA Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Jesse Meng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Yang, H. Wei, M. B. Ek, Y. Xia, and K. E. Mitchell

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 6

Progress in Estimating Land Surface Evaporation

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS; Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC

3:30 PM

6.1

The LandFlux-EVAL Initiative [INVITED]

Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Jimenez, B. Mueller, C. Kummerow, M. McCabe, W. B. Rossow, G. Balsamo, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, J. B. Fisher, R. H. Reichle, M. Reichstein, M. Rodell, K. Wang, and E. F. Wood

3:45 PM

6.2

Analysis of multi-year global evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 model simulations

Brigitte Mueller, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and S. I. Seneviratne and C. Jimenez

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

6.3

An observational and reanalysis study of the water budget in the Amazon basin

Janice L. Bytheway, Science and Technology Corporation, Laporte, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

6.4

Land Surface Evaporation from Reanalysis and Modeling

Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Decker, K. Sakaguchi, Z. Wang, and M. Brunke

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

6.5

Developing a dual assimilation approach for thermal infrared and passive microwave soil moisture retrievals [INVITED]

Christopher Hain, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Camp Springs, MD; and W. T. Crow, M. C. Anderson, and J. R. Mecikalski

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

6.6

Temperature-driven PET projections

Laura S. Harrison, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and E. Tarnavsky, C. C. Funk, J. Michaelsen, M. Brown, and M. T. Marshall

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

6.7

Improvements and Evaluations of the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration Algorithm

Qiaozhen Mu, University of Montana, Missoula, MT; and M. Zhao and S. W. Running

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

6.8

Estimating irrigation use and improving water resources management using energy balance (METRIC) estimates of evapotranspiration

Timothy C. Martin, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and R. Allen, J. Kjaersgaard, and A. Nevo

Recorded Presentation

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Joint Session 3

Risk Communication of Weather and Climate Information (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Cochairs: Nate Johnson, NBC Owned Television Stations Group; John Sokich, NOAA/NWS

8:30 AM

J3.1

The Communication of Risk: At the Crossroads of Science, Economics, and Communications

Paul Hettler, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and S. A. Jasko and C. M. Kauffman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J3.2

Communicating weather, climate and catastrophe risk and preparedness

Jeanne Salvatore, Insurance Information Institute, New York, NY

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J3.3

Insurance loss return periods with extreme event intensity thresholds across the US: 1980–2010

Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NCEI, Asheville, NC

Manuscript (21.8 kB)

9:15 AM

J3.4

Visualization of slow-developing hazards: Influencing perceptions and behaviors to facilitate adaptation planning

Tim G. Frazier, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and F. Murtinho, G. Broad, D. Campbell, P. Howe, and H. Reyes Hernandez

9:30 AM

J3.5

How do people perceive and respond to flash flood risk and warnings?

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo, K. Mulder, J. L. Demuth, and A. Bostrom

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J3.6

Now what do people know about global climate change? A mental models approach

Ann Bostrom, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. W. Reynolds and R. Hudson

Recorded Presentation

Session 7

Hydrologic Prediction and Verification for Water and Energy Resources and Other Applications I

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Julie Demargne, NOAA/NWS; Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS; James David Brown, NOAA/NWS/Office of Hydrologic Development

8:30 AM

7.1

Verification of peak flow forecasts in the Colorado Basin

Ashley Nielson, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Werner and A. W. Wood

Recorded Presentation

7.2

Verification of experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation and streamflow produced by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) [INVITED]

8:45 AM

7.2A

Impact of basin scale and initial condition on ensemble streamflow forecast uncertainty

Giuseppe Mascaro, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy; and E. R. Vivoni and R. Deidda

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

7.3

Verification of the meteorolgical model-based ensemble forecast system (MMEFS) SREF-based forecasts in the Ohio River Valley

Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH

9:15 AM

7.4

Coastal and Inland FLooding Observation and Warning (CI-FLOW) Project- An Assesment of Research Outcomes From An Integrated Hydrologic Prediction System for Coastal Watersheds [INVITED]

Suzanne Van Cooten, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Kelleher, K. Howard, J. Zhang, J. J. Gourley, C. Langston, V. Farmer, K. Nemunatitis-Monroe, Z. L. Flamig, H. Moser, R. Kolar, Y. Hong, K. Dresback, E. Tromble, H. Vergara, R. Luettich, B. Blanton, K. Galuppi, C. A. Blain, J. F. Thigpen, K. Mosher, D. Figursky, M. Moneypenny, J. Orrock, R. S. Bandy, C. Goodall, J. G. W. Kelley, J. Greenlaw, M. Wengren, D. Eslinger, J. Payne, J. Feldt, J. Schmidt, T. Hamill, R. H. Bacon, R. Stickney, and L. Spence

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

7.5

Short range operational streamflow forecasting in western washington state, usa

Matthew Wiley, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and B. Nijssen, P. Storck, and J. Lerner

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

7.6

Hydrological model sensitivity to small-scale rainfall forecasts

Andrea L. Zimmer, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY

Spouses' Coffee

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Exhibit Hours

Joint Session 2

Hydrologic Prediction and Verification for Water and Energy Resources and Other Applications—II

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )

Cochairs: Julie Demargne, NOAA/NWS; James David Brown, NOAA/NWS/Office of Hydrologic Development; Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

10:30 AM

J2.4

Seasonal rainfall prediction in the East Mediterranean with statistical downscaling

Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, M. Ge, G. Descombes, T. Warner, D. Yates, T. Hopson, S. Swerdlin, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, P. Kunin, and A. Givati

10:45 AM

J2.2

Invited Speaker: A new multi-decadal reforecast global ensemble reforecast data set using the NCEP GFS

Thomas M. Hamill, Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J2.3

Verification of ENSO-weighted long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts in the Blue Nile River

Mohamed A. Habib, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and A. A. Bradley, M. Elshamy, and D. Amin

Manuscript (354.0 kB)

11:15 AM

J2.1

Advances in calibration of QPF/PQPF for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Yan Luo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J2.5

Short-term streamflow forecasting by ensemble Bayesian neural network models with climate variability

Kabir Rasouli, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. J. Cannon

11:45 AM

J2.6A

The HydroMet Decision Support System: transfer of hydrometeorological technologies to developing countries

J. William Conway, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and B. Clarke, C. Porter, L. Venkatrmani, Y. Li, A. Oldaker, P. Spencer, W. Ladwig, C. Goering, B. Shaw, E. D. Mitchell, C. Barrere, and M. Eilts

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 4

Communicating Climate Change I (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Susan Solomon, MIT

10:30 AM

J4.1

What counts as knowledge? Using science dynamics to communicate climate dynamics

James Rodger Fleming, Colby College, Waterville, ME

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J4.3

Communicating climate change: from awareness to action

Amy K. Snover, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. C. Whitely Binder, A. F. Hamlet, and J. Littell

Recorded Presentation

J4.2

What are the biggest challenges in communicating climate science?

11:15 AM

J4.4

Making climate part of the human world

Simon D. Donner, University of British Colombia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J4.6A

Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC 5th Assessment

Myles R. Allen, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

J4.5

Communicating climate science: Why is it so hard? (Because facts are not enough)

Lunch Break

Joint Session 5

Communicating Climate Change II (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )

Chair: Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria

1:30 PM

J4.6

Devils Lake climate, weather, and water decision support system

Fiona M. Horsfall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Kluck, M. J. Brewer, M. Timofeyeva, J. Symonds, S. Dummer, and M. Frazier

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J5.1

Trends in public opinion on climate change, as reflected in contributions to Australian newspapers

David J. Karoly, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and B. Parr

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J5.2

Promoting climate information and communication of climate change

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (270.8 kB)

2:15 PM

J5.4

Turning the tide on climate change

Philippe de Casabianca, Cefic, Brussels, Belgium; and R. Kandel

Lecture

Robert E. Horton Lecture

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

1:30 PM

L.1

What Robert Horton Did Not Know About Floods

James A. Smith, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 6

Hydrologic Prediction and Verification for Water and Energy Resources and Other Applications

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; James David Brown, NOAA/NWS/Office of Hydrologic Development; Julie Demargne, NOAA/NWS

375

Improving Hydrologic Analysis and Applications in the U.S. and Canada Using Quality Controlled Radar Data and the Storm Precipitation Analysis System

Beth Clarke, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and T. W. Parzybok, D. M. Hultstrand, B. D. Kappel, and E. Tomlinson

376

High spatial resolution hydrological modeling on the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) grid

Jiarui Dong, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, B. Cosgrove, V. Koren, H. Lee, M. Smith, P. Restrepo, and K. Mitchell

377

Analysis of National Mosaic and Multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates during warm season rainfall events in Oklahoma

Anthony L. Brown, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Van Cooten, K. Howard, K. M. Willingham, J. Zhang, and C. Langston

Handout (1.3 MB)

378

Evaluation of GFS water vapor forecast errors during the 2009-2010 West Coast cool season using the MET/MODE object analyses package

Wallace L. Clark, STC/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, T. L. Jensen, G. Wick, E. I. Tollerud, R. Bullock, and E. Sukovich

Manuscript (524.2 kB)

Handout (1015.7 kB)

379

The utility of soil moisture estimates from a land surface model in seasonal streamflow forecasts

Eric A. Rosenberg, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. A. Clark, A. C. Steinemann, and D. P. Lettenmaier

Paper 380 has been moved. New paper number is 7.2A.

381

Incorporating weather and climate predictions from NCEP GFS and CFS into seasonal water supply forecasts for the Colorado River basin

Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Lhotak, J. C. Schaake, K. Werner, and M. Schmidt

382

The quandary with QPF in hydrologic forecasting

Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH; and T. Rench

383

Modeling seasonal river discharge with heavy-tailed distributions

Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung and J. Gao

384

Summertime Flash Floods in the Southern Appalachians

Jing Tao, Duke University, Durham, NC; and A. P. Barros

Paper 385 has been moved and replaced with Paper 385A. New paper number is J2.6A.

385A

Improved Ensemble Streamflow Prediction through New ESP Weighting Schemes and Bias Correction

Mohammad Reza Najafi, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and H. Moradkhani

Poster Session 7

Remote Sensing of Hydrometeorological Variables

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI; Chandra R. Kondragunta, NOAA

386

Rainfall estimation using a C-band polarimetric radar

Raquel Evaristo, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and A. Stepanek, K. H. Goebbert, D. J. Smalley, and E. R. Williams

Handout (2.5 MB)

387

Radar-observed Lahar at Redoubt Volcano on 4 Apr 2009

Andrew Dixon, NOAA/WFO, Grand Rapids, MI; and D. Schnieder

388

Version 7 TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)

David T. Bolvin, SSAI and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, E. J. Nelkin, and R. F. Adler

389

Validation of the CMORPH satellite-rainfall product using an experimental rain gauge network and radar rainfall product

Emad Habib, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA; and A. Haile, L. Qin, and Y. Tian

390

An Experimental Study of Small-Scale Variability of Rainfall

Kurtulus Ozturk, Turkish State Meteorological Service, Kalaba, Turkey; and A. Tokay and P. G. Bashor

391

Using gauge and radar data from TRMM ground validation sites to determine the diurnal rainfall cycles of quarter degree pixels, seasonal rain rate, and seasonal rain coverage

Jason L. Pippitt, NASA/GSFC/SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and D. B. Wolff and D. A. Marks

Manuscript (3.0 MB)

Handout (5.9 MB)

392

Annual and diurnal variation of precipitable water over California and Nevada

James D. Means, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Cayan

Handout (448.8 kB)

393

Initiation times of warm season precipitating storms in the southern Great Plains

Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and X. Li

394

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and its relationship with precipitation

Alyssa V. Bates, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and X. Z. Liang

395

Multisite calibration of a multifractal downscaling model for satellite-based soil moisture estimates

Giuseppe Mascaro, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy; and E. R. Vivoni and R. Deidda

396

Data Sources and Techniques for Operational Ice Analysis in Alaska Waters

Kathleen Cole, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK

Session 8

Remote Sensing of Hydrometeorological Variables I

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC/SSAI; Chandra R. Kondragunta, NOAA

4:00 PM

8.1

Flood hazard monitoring in Colorado mountains with mobile Doppler radars [INVITED]

Steven V. Vasiloff, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Busto, M. P. Meyers, D. J. Gochis, and K. Friedrich

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

8.2

Assessing the role of dual-polarimetric radar in quantitative precipitation estimation and nowcasting in the Colorado Front Range region

David J. Gochis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Rutledge, K. Ikeda, P. Kennedy, R. Cifelli, B. A. Dolan, R. M. Rasmussen, and P. A. Kucera

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

8.3

The impact of precipitation Bragg backscatter on radar hydrometeorology

A. R. Jameson, RJH Scientific, Inc., Arlington, VA

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

8.4

Vertical profiles of reflectivity over complex terrain and their impact on WSR-88D radar QPEs: case studies from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed

Jian Zhang, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. Kingsmill, Y. Qi, and K. Howard

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

8.5

Practical considerations for using remotely sensed precipitation estimates—TMPA and 1DD

George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC/SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and E. J. Nelkin

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

8.6

A multi-sensor merged analysis of high-resolution global precipitation analysis

Pingping Xie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. H. Yoo, R. J. Joyce, and Y. S. Yarosh

Recorded Presentation

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

91st AMS Awards Banquet

Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater

Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 9

Remote Sensing of Hydrometeorological Variables II

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI; Chandra R. Kondragunta, NOAA

8:30 AM

9.1

Evaluation of passive microwave land surface emissivities for improved precipitation retrievals over land for GPM-era algorithms—part I: comparison of inversion methodsp

Ralph R. Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, G. Skofronick-Jackson, N. Y. Wang, K. Gopalan, and C. Hernandez

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9.2

Evaluation of Passive Microwave Land Surface Emissivities for Improved Precipitation Retrievals Over Land for GPM-era Algorithms—Part II: Forward Modeling and Sensitivity to Land Surface Snowpack, Soil Moisture and Temperature

Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. R. Ferraro, G. Skofronick-Jackson, K. W. Harrison, Y. Tian, and L. S. W. Group

9:00 AM

9.3

The Establishment of the International Soil Moisture Network

P.J. Van Oevelen, International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Dorigo, W. Wagner, T. J. Jackson, and M. Drusch

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9.4

Combining Thermal and Microwave Satellite Sensor Observations for a Moderate Resolution Soil Moisture Data Product

Xiwu Zhan, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and C. Hain and J. Liu

9:30 AM

9.5

Using the vegetation signal to determine the root zone soil moisture from radar remote sensing

Susan C. Steele-Dunne, University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; and J. Friesen and N. van de Giesen

Joint Session 10

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale I

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

8:30 AM

J10.1

Drivers of extreme events at the regional scale: Investigations with regional climate simulations and observations [INVITED]

Sonia I. Seneviratne, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and E. L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E. B. Jaeger, R. Lorenz, B. Orlowsky, and A. J. Teuling

8:45 AM

J10.2

Assessment of the agricultural impacts of climate change in the Southeastern United States: Decision support tools and uncertainty

Alex C. Ruane, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and R. M. Horton, J. M. Winter, and C. Rosenzweig

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J10.3A

Assessment of AOGCM biases for RCM applications over the Great Basin in the western U.S

John Mejia, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin, E. M. Wilcox, and K. E. Kunkel

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J10.4

Great Lakes net basin supply and lake levels under a changed climate based on a regional climate model

Brent M. Lofgren, NOAA/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Gyawali

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J10.5

Improvement in Regional Climate modeling using WRF coupled to the high complexity multilayer land surface model ACASA

Liyi Xu, University of California, Davis, CA; and R. D. Pyles and K. T. Paw U

Recorded Presentation

Exhibit Hours

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Joint Poster Session 2

Drought Management, Policy and Social Implications

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research )

Cochairs: Rosalind Bark, University of Arizona; Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona; Mark Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

397

Drought Characterization: Indicators and Decision-Making

Shraddhanand Shukla, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. C. Steinemann and D. P. Lettenmaier

398

Drought management in the Lower Colorado River basin: combining paleo-streamflow ensembles, CRSS, and decision trees

Rosalind Bark, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Morino

399

Water shortages and agriculture in the Colorado River Basin: adaptations and economic impacts

George Frisvold, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Konyar

400

Vision into Action: The Establishment and Facilitation of an Effective Drought Coordinator Network in the United States

Crystal J. Bergman, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and D. Bathke, M. D. Svoboda, N. A. Wall, J. Nothwehr, J. Robine, T. K. Bernadt, and M. Hayes

Handout (807.0 kB)

Joint Poster Session 3

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

401

The potential for an abrupt failure of the West African monsoon as climate warms

Naresh Neupane, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and K. H. Cook

402

Combined effects of global warming and an AMOC shutdown on West African and European climate

Meredith Brown, University of Texas , Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy and K. H. Cook

403

Air-sea coupling mechanisms in the North Pacific using a high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model

Ramesh K. Vellore, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin, I. Cerovecki, and C. E. Dorman

404

Local and remote influences on vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic region

Xiaojie Zhu, Texas A&M University, College station, TX; and R. Saravanan

Handout (8.8 MB)

405

High resolution simulation of the succession of hurricanes in 2008: Gustav, Hanna, and Ike

Wuyin Lin, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and M. Zhang, A. M. Vogelmann, and J. He

Handout (2.4 MB)

406

A study of inter-annual variability of U.S. West Coast upwelling zones with ENSO and PDO indices using high-resolution regional climate modeling

Darko Koracin, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Mejia, C. E. Dorman, and K. E. Kunkel

Paper 407 has been moved and replaced by 407A. New paper numer is J10.3A.

407A

Advances in Coupling Regional Circulation/Land Surface Models and Dynamic Crop Models

Guillermo A. Baigorria, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and D. W. Shin

408

Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Runs

Tanya L. Otte, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. H. Bowden, C. G. Nolte, M. J. Otte, J. E. Pleim, J. A. Herwehe, G. Faluvegi, and D. Shindell

Handout (2.2 MB)

409

Analysis and quantification of uncertainty in climate adaptation products for the southwestern US

Duane Apling, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. Higgins, K. Darmenova, and H. Kiley

410

Regional climate modeling in the Lower Mississippi River Valley for water resources assessments

Valentine G. Anantharaj, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN; and G. V. Mostovoy, Y. Lau, C. A. Peterson, C. D. Armstrong, and X. Fan

411

Reproducibility and future projection of monthly maximum number of consecutive dry days in Japan: Improvement by a 5-km-mesh regional climate model

Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. Kanada, T. Kato, and K. Kurihara

412

Assessment of Climate Change over Colorado River Basin as predicted by Regional Climate Models

Yanhong Gao, Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China; and J. Vano and D. P. Lettenmaier

Handout (1.9 MB)

413

Simulated regional climate change in the Carpathian Basin using ENSEMBLES model simulations

Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, E. Miklos, and A. Kis

Manuscript (211.4 kB)

Handout (1005.2 kB)

414

Paleo-reconstruction of summer streamflow with estimates of uncertainties and applications to climate change assessments

Eric Lutz, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet and J. Littell

415

Assessment of dynamical downscale ability to simulate intra-seasonal and interannual variation in East Asia

Tomonori Sato, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; and Y. Xue

416

High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation patterns over the western U.S using WRF

John Mejia, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin

Handout (1.9 MB)

417

Modeling the hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States: predicting soil moisture under a warmer climate

Jonathan M. Winter, NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and E. A. B. Eltahir

418

Development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) --- Performance of the VIC land surface model in coupled simulations

Chunmei Zhu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Lettenmaier, J. He, T. Craig, and W. Maslowski

419

Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: Rainfall climatology and interannual variability

Zewdu Segele, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. J. Lamb

Handout (249.6 kB)

420

Conservative and Noise Resistant Data Remapping for Coupling WRF and CAM

Ying Chen, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and X. Jiao, W. Lin, M. H. Zhang, and J. He

Handout (1.1 MB)

421

Construction of WRF/CAM two-way coupling system and preliminary results

Juanxiong He, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Zhang, W. Lin, Y. Chen, and A. M. Vogelmann

Handout (384.6 kB)

422

Assessment of dynamical downscaling in Japan using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and R. Pielke Sr., A. Beltran-Przekurat, S. IIzuka, and W. Sasaki

423

Assessment of Climate Model Performance over the Australian Region

Luke M. Leslie, Washington University in St. Louis, Norman, OK

Paper 424 has been moved. New paper number is 505A

Poster Session 8

Drought Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

425

U.S. climate reference network soil moisture measurements and drought monitoring

Michael Palecki, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

426

Evaluation of an ET-based Drought Index Derived from Geostationary Satellite Data

M. C. Anderson, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD; and C. R. Hain, X. Zhan, and J. Mecikalski

427

Application of the moisture balance drought index in the Colorado River Basin, USA

Andrew W. Ellis, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and G. M. Garfin and M. Lenart

Paper 428 has been moved. New paper number is 11.3A.

429

Agricultural drought monitoring in semi-arid and arid areas using perpendicular drought indices

430

Comparison of EDI with SPI as the globally unified drought index

Hi-Ryong Byun, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. W. Kim and S. M. Lee

Manuscript (23.9 kB)

431

Characterizing the surface dynamics of Canadian Prairie droughts

Barrie R. Bonsal, EC, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; and E. Wheaton and E. Siemens

432

Characteristics of agriculture drought in China during 1950-2006

Aihui Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. P. Lettenmaier and J. Sheffield

433

Hydrological response to meteorological drought: a case study in La Plata Basin

Olga C. Penalba, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and J. A. Rivera

Handout (1.8 MB)

31

Temporal variability in rainfall, dry days, water balance and extreme events in northeastern Argentina

Olga C. Penalba, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and V. C. Pántano, J. Rivera, and F. Robledo

Handout (568.0 kB)

434

Improving drought monitoring for Australia

435

The impact of groundwater-land surface interactions on hydrologic persistence in macroscale modeling

Elizabeth A. Clark, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. C. Steinemann and D. P. Lettenmaier

437

Wintertime forcing of the 1998-2002 Northern Hemisphere drought

Andrew Hoell, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow

436

U.S. mega-droughts and associated sea surface temperatures in coupled ocean-atmosphere runs

Joint Session 8

Communicating Uncertainty (Themed Joint Session)

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )

Chair: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina

J8.1

The Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty—Opinions From the Interface

11:15 AM

J8.2

User engagement for water resources forecasts: a framework for iterative communication

Kevin Werner, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Averyt and G. Owen

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J8.3

Current practices and future challenges in communicating hydrologic forecast uncertainty at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Werner and M. Schmidt

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J8.4

Meaning, Context, and Weather-Related Information Sharing

Susan A. Jasko, California Univ. of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and C. M. Kauffman and P. Hettler

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J8.5

Communicating Satellite MW Ocean Product Errors to a Variety of Users

Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz, K. Hilburn, and C. A. Mears

Joint Session 11

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale II

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

11:00 AM

J11.1

Toward confident and useful climate change projections: West Africa and the Sahel [INVITED]

Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas, Austin, TX

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J11.2

Long-Term Climate Impacts on the Hydrological Cycle of Northeastern Puerto Rico due to the Combined Effects of LCLU and Global Climate Changes

Daniel E. Comarazamy, Santa Clara University, New York, NY; and J. E. González

11:30 AM

J11.3

Dynamic and soil moisture feedbacks in regional climate change over the central U.S

Zaitao Pan, St. Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J11.4

Modeled onshore and offshore California coastal-cooling: General Circulation and mesoscale effects

B. Lebassi, College of New York, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez and R. Bornstein

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J11.5

Future Impact of Weakening Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation on the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico

Yanyun Liu, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. K. Lee, B. A. Muhling, and J. T. Lamkin

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 16

Drought Management, Policy and Social Implications

Location: 618-620 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research )

Cochairs: Rosalind Bark, University of Arizona; Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona; Mark A. Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

11:00 AM

J16.1

Colorado River Operations and Planning in a Changing Climate

Terrance Fulp, Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder City, NV

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J16.2

Drought, climate change and water resources management in Australia

Jason Alexandra, Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, Australia

11:30 AM

J16.3

Building an integrated evidence-base to support drought policy in Australia

John Gray, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics-Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra, ACT , Australia; and M. Nicholson, D. Platzen, S. Bruce, J. Walcott, and J. Sims

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J16.4

The impact of drought on rivers in federal political systems

Jamie Pittock, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

J16.5

Climate Change and Drought Management in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia: Opportunities for Translation

Stewart J. Cohen, EC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and S. M. Langsdale, K. Harma, and M. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session

Presidential Town Hall Meeting

Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )

12:15 PM

Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science

Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

Audio File

Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon

Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

Session 10

Drought Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction I

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC; Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

10.1

A global drought monitoring web portal

Michael J. Brewer, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. Symonds and R. Heim

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (544.1 kB)

1:45 PM

10.2

Recent declines in southern Australian rainfall: a review of recent science

Karl Braganza, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. England, J. Frederiksen, P. Hope, N. Nicholls, J. Risbey, B. Timbal, and I. G. Watterson

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10.3

Understanding model dependence of the impact of leading SST variability over the U.S.: a US CLIVAR drought working group effort [INVITED]

Hailan Wang, NASA, Hampton, VA; and S. D. Schubert, M. J. Suarez, and R. D. Koster

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10.4

Reconstruction of 20th century North American droughts reveals a key role for Atlantic basin temperatures

Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and B. Guan and A. Ruiz-Barradas

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10.5

Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability associated with Growing Season Droughts and Pluvials on the Canadian Prairies

Amir Shabbar, AES, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Bonsal and K. Szeto

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (511.1 kB)

2:45 PM

10.6

Drought Under Global Warming

Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 12

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale III

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

1:30 PM

J12.1

Creating dynamically downscaled seasonal climate forecast and climate change projection information for the North American Monsoon region suitable for decision making purposes [INVITED]

Christopher L. Castro, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and F. Dominguez and H. I. Chang

Recorded Presentation

J12.2

Regional climate modeling for Rhode Island and Shenzhen City, China: A model intercomparison program for optimizing coastal resource management decision making

2:00 PM

J12.3

Comparison of climate downscaling methods and results for stakeholder-driven research in the urban Northeast U.S

Radley M. Horton, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. C. Ruane, J. M. Winter, and C. Rosenzweig

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J12.4

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

Kremena Darmenova, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. Higgins, H. Kiley, and D. Apling

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J12.5

Regional Climate Model results in Pacific North America and the northern Columbia Basin

Trevor Q. Murdock, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; and G. Bürger and A. T. Werner

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J12.6

Precipitation Extremes in western U.S. urban areas: How reliable are regional/global climate model projections?

Vimal Mishra, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Dominguez and D. P. Lettenmaier

Recorded Presentation

Registration Closes

Coffee Break

Meet the President

Session 11

Drought Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction II

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)

Host: 25th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Kingtse C. Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC; Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS; Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC

3:30 PM

11.1

Drought prediction based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Jin-Ho Yoon, PNNL, Richland, WA; and K. Mo

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

11.2

Drought monitoring and forecasting in the Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern United States [INVITED]

Joshua K. Roundy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, K. C. Mo, and J. Dobur

Recorded Presentation

11.3

Predictability of drought using short-term climate information from dynamical weather prediction models

4:00 PM

11.3A

Monitoring of drought in the western United States: metrics suitable for tracking drought historically and throughout the 21st century

John T. Abatzoglou, Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and K. T. Redmond, L. M. Edwards, and A. Joros

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11.4

Predicting hydrological drought: relative contributions of soil moisture and snow information to seasonal streamflow forecast skill

Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Mahanama, B. Livneh, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. H. Reichle

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11.5

Evaluating the role of weather forecast skill in seasonal drought prediction

Shraddhanand Shukla, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Voisin and D. P. Lettenmaier

4:45 PM

11.6

Development of a new set of web-based tools for drought analysis and prediction

Michael A. Bell, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and B. Lyon

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 22

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale IV

Location: 612 (Washington State Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona; Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington; L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

3:30 PM

J22.1

The North American regional climate change assessment program: climate change results [INVITED]

Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J22.2

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for North America Simulated by WRF Driven by Two Global Climate Models

L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Correia and Y. Qian

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J22.3

Outstanding challenges in projecting North American drought changes over the 21st century

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. I. Shin

4:15 PM

J22.4

Extreme precipitation events in the NAM region—testing a modified convective parameterization scheme

Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zhang, L. Thang, and C. Christopher

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J22.5

Study of interior nudging for regional climate modeling using annual simulations: investigation of mean error and added value

Jared H. Bowden, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and T. Otte, C. G. Nolte, J. E. Pleim, J. A. Herwehe, and M. J. Otte

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J22.6

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations for Application to CMIP/AR Downscaling

Peter Lean, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and J. Kim, D. E. Waliser, A. Hall, C. Mattman, S. L. Granger, K. Case, C. Goodale, A. Hart, B. Guan, N. Molotch, and S. Kaki

Recorded Presentation

AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns

25th Conference on Hydrology

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

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Monday, 24 January 2011

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8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

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Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

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9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

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3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

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Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011