Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chair: Stephen Bennett , EarthRisk Technologies

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 22 January 2011

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 22 January 2011


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Sunday, 23 January 2011

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Short Course Registration

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


WeatherFest

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 23 January 2011


Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center)

Monday, 24 January 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Registration continues through January 27

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Events; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; the IMPACTS: Weather 2010; and the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International )

Panel Discussion
Communicating Weather and Climate
Location: 6AB (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Presidential Forum: Communicating Weather and Climate; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology; and the IMPACTS: Weather 2010 )
Panelists: Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune; Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre; Doyle Rice, USA Today; Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council
Moderator: Robert T. Ryan, NBC4 TV
9:00 AM
Panelist: Thomas E. Skilling
Thomas E. Skilling, WGN-TV, Chicago, IL

9:10 AM
Panelist: Claire Martin
Claire Martin, CBC News: Weather Centre, Vancouver, BC, Canada

9:20 AM
Panelist: Doyle Rice
Doyle Rice, USA Today, Washington, DC

9:30 AM
Panelist: Martin Storksdieck
Martin Storksdieck, National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, Washington, DC

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Communicating with Technology (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 604 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Symposium on Education; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Chair: Rajul Pandya, UCAR
4:00 PM
J1.1
Integrating air quality tools with the Wildland Fire Decision Support System
Narasimhan Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and M. Rorig, T. Strand, T. J. Brown, S. Raffuse, P. Lahm, and T. Zimmerman

4:15 PM
J1.2
Using YouTube Videos to Communicate Science
Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and T. Nakamura and M. Dunlap
4:30 PM
J1.3
Commuicating Climate Science fo the General Public
Andrew Freedman, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and H. Cullen and M. McGuirk
4:45 PM
J1.4
Utility of 2D/3D visualization methods in analyzing and disseminating flood information
Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and P. Amburn, D. Reed, and D. Welch
5:00 PM
J1.5A

5:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Reception and Exhibits Opening

7:00 PM-8:30 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 24 January 2011


Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate Art Show

Tuesday, 25 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

9:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


Meet the President
Location: 601 (Washington State Convention Center)

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Recording files available
Session
Town Hall Meeting: Flipping the Switch: The Energy Complex Demystified
Location: 608 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
6:00 PM
How does energy work?
Russell L. Bigley, Xcel Energy, Littleton, CO

7:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 25 January 2011


“Energizing” Happy Hour
Location: 605/610 (Washington State Convention Center)

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-9:15 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 1
Dollars and Cents: Weather for Energy Markets I
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Mark S. Russo, Chesapeake Energy Corp.
8:30 AM
1.1
Winter's shorter shadow on natural gas demand
Joshua Darr, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Davis and M. Russo
8:45 AM
1.2
9:00 AM
1.3
Using Customized Weather Derivatives to Hedge Earnings Volatilities in Energy Markets
Richard Oduntan, Nephila Capital Ltd, Hamilton, Bermuda; and B. Schauble

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Risk Communication of Weather and Climate Information (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Cochairs: Nate Johnson, NBC Owned Television Stations Group; John Sokich, NOAA/NWS
8:30 AM
J3.1
The Communication of Risk: At the Crossroads of Science, Economics, and Communications
Paul Hettler, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and S. A. Jasko and C. M. Kauffman
8:45 AM
J3.2
Communicating weather, climate and catastrophe risk and preparedness
Jeanne Salvatore, Insurance Information Institute, New York, NY
9:15 AM
J3.4
Visualization of slow-developing hazards: Influencing perceptions and behaviors to facilitate adaptation planning
Tim G. Frazier, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and F. Murtinho, G. Broad, D. Campbell, P. Howe, and H. Reyes Hernandez

9:30 AM
J3.5
How do people perceive and respond to flash flood risk and warnings?
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo, K. Mulder, J. L. Demuth, and A. Bostrom
9:45 AM
J3.6
Now what do people know about global climate change? A mental models approach
Ann Bostrom, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. W. Reynolds and R. Hudson

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Spouses' Coffee

9:15 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Panel Discussion 1
Dollars and Cents: Weather for Energy Markets (Panel Discussion)
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Moderator: Kevin Stenson, MeteoGroup USA
9:15 AM
PD1.1
Weather Risk Management and Renewable Energy
Lawrence Heitkemper, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Hanson and T. Hamilton

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President

10:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 2
Dollars and Cents: Weather for Energy Markets II
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Russell L. Bigley, Xcel Energy
10:30 AM
2.1
The value of wind power forecasting
Debra Lew, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Milligan and G. Jordan
Manuscript (310.0 kB)

10:45 AM
2.2
Offshore Wind Energy: Prospects for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and S. R. Smith, S. Cocke, and C. Collier

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Communicating Climate Change I (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Chair: Susan Solomon, MIT
10:30 AM
J4.1
10:45 AM
J4.3
Communicating climate change: from awareness to action
Amy K. Snover, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. C. Whitely Binder, A. F. Hamlet, and J. Littell
11:15 AM
J4.4
Making climate part of the human world
Simon D. Donner, University of British Colombia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
11:30 AM
J4.6A
Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC 5th Assessment
Myles R. Allen, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 3
Weather Fundamentals for Energy Planning: Data and User Groups I
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Catherine A. Finley, WindLogics Inc.
11:00 AM
3.1
Renewable Energy in a Coastal Domain: Observations and Modeling
Len Pietrafesa, Center for Marine & Wetland Studies, Conway, SC; and P. Gayes, M. Peng, and K. Ma
11:15 AM
3.2
Comparison and validation of high-resolution techniques for spatial mapping of wind energy resources
Mark T. Stoelinga, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and M. F. Garvert, S. J. Eichelberger, and J. McCaa
11:30 AM
3.3
Assimilation of Real-Time Observations for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Renewable Systems Management
Elena Novakovskaia, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and H. Centola and C. Sloop

11:45 AM
3.4
Maximizing the value of short-term observational data using numerical weather prediction models
Scott J. Eichelberger, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and J. McCaa and P. Storck

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 4
Weather Fundamentals for Energy Planning: Data and User Groups II
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: John Manobianco, AWS Truepower LLC
1:30 PM
4.1
Observed Impacts of Transient Clouds on Utility-Scale PV Fields
J. Adam Kankiewicz, Clean Power Research, Kirkland, WA; and M. Sengupta and D. Moon
1:45 PM
4.2
Solar variability and its impact on photovoltaic generation
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and R. George

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Communicating Climate Change II (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth History Symposium; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Chair: Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria
1:30 PM
J4.6
Devils Lake climate, weather, and water decision support system
Fiona M. Horsfall, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Kluck, M. J. Brewer, M. Timofeyeva, J. Symonds, S. Dummer, and M. Frazier
1:45 PM
J5.1
2:15 PM
J5.4
Turning the tide on climate change
Philippe de Casabianca, Cefic, Brussels, Belgium; and R. Kandel

2:00 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Weather and Climate Applications for Energy Decision Support—I
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Chair: Russell L. Bigley, Xcel Energy
2:00 PM
J7.1
Operational utilization and evaluation of a coupled weather and outage prediction service for electric utility operations
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and A. Praino, H. Li, R. Derech, and B. Hertell
2:15 PM
J7.2
Introducing the Renewable Energy Network Optimization Tool (ReNOT): Part I
Randall Alliss, Northrop Grumann Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and R. Link, D. Apling, M. L. Mason, H. Kiley, G. Higgins, and K. Darmenova

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Poster Session 1
Dollars and Cents: Weather for Energy Markets
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
761
762
Gene-expression programming—an electrical-load forecast alternative to artificial neural networks
Atoossa Bakhshaii, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Handout (1.2 MB)

763
On the efficiency of solar energy in the tropics
Paul Ruscher, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

Handout (3.0 MB)

764
Establishing the value in day ahead solar power forecasting
Jeff Lerner, Vaisala, Seattle, WA; and E. Grimit, B. Nijssen, and M. Wiley

765
Wind farm layout optimization
Jayant R. Kalagnanam, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and B. Dilkina and L. A. Treinish

Handout (1.0 MB)


Joint Poster Session 1
Weather and Climate Applications for Energy Decision Support
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
753
Making energy balancing decisions based on very uncertain wind power ramp forecasts
Eric P. Grimit, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and K. Larson, J. Lerner, and M. T. Stoelinga

754
NASA products to enhance energy utility load forecasting
Erica Zell, Battelle, Arlington, VA; and P. Stackhouse Jr., G. Lough, J. Engel-Cox, A. Carpenter, G. J. Jedlovec, R. Homer, and S. Bliley

755
Visualizing wind power forecast performance
Lacey Holland, 3TIER, Seattle, WA; and A. Atkins and C. Teeter

Poster 756 has been moved to oral presentation J9.1A

758
Applications of the Renewable Energy Network Optimization Tool (ReNOT) for use by Wind & Solar Developers: Part II
Randall Alliss, Northrop Grumann Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and R. Link, D. Apling, H. Kiley, M. Mason, E. Martin, and G. Higgins
Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

759
Simulating Photovoltaic Array Performance with Solar Radiations Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet
Nicholas A. Engerer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey

Handout (2.1 MB)

Poster 760 now Poster 263A


Poster Session 2
Weather Fundamentals for Energy Planning: Data and User Groups
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
766
Performance of a wind-profiling LIDAR in the region of wind turbine rotor disks
Matthew L. Aitken, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Rhodes and J. K. Lundquist

Handout (870.4 kB)

767
An evaluation of different data mining methods for forecasting wind farm power
Gerry Wiener, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Pearson, B. Lambi, and W. Myers

Handout (531.9 kB)

768
Simulating Wind Power Density around Buildings for Siting
Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. W. Stewart, J. A. Cole, F. J. Zajaczkowski, and K. J. Schmehl
Manuscript (659.3 kB)

769
Simulating time-series winds using genetic programming
Ethan Cook, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey and J. S. Greene

771
A U.S. Wind Climatology: new tools to monitor wind trends across the contiguous United States
Jake Crouch, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. W. R. Wallis and D. S. Arndt
Manuscript (304.3 kB)


Poster Session 3
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Short Range Forecasting
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
773
A convection permitting forecast ensemble for the mid-Atlantic states: applications for renewable energy
Brian J. Etherton, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and M. J. Parker and B. Weatherhead

Handout (2.9 MB)

774
Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting and Projection
Quanhua (Mark) Liu, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Sprins, MD; and F. Weng

775
Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imager at the UC San Diego solar energy testbed
Bryan Urquhart, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. W. Chow, M. Lave, J. Kleissl, and B. Washom

Handout (1.5 MB)

776
Prototyping and Validating a Solar Irradiance Forecasting System
George D. Modica, AER, Inc, Lexington, MA; and R. P. D'Entremont, M. J. Iacono, G. B. Gustafson, and H. E. Snell

Handout (351.9 kB)

777
Creation of a WRF Ensemble for Improved Wind Forecasts at Turbine Height
Adam J. Deppe, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and E. S. Takle
Manuscript (488.6 kB)

Handout (899.2 kB)

778
Improving the 0-3 hour wind forecast through wind farm data assimilation in the NCAR/ATEC WRF RTFDDA
William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, Y. Liu, B. Mahoney, M. Politovich, T. T. Warner, K. Parks, and J. Himelic

779
Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
McLean Sloughter, Seattle Univ., Seattle, WA; and T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery

780
Verification and analysis of hub-height wind forecasts from the NCAR-Xcel WRF-RTFDDA
Gregory Roux, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, M. J. Pocernich, W. Y. Y. Cheng, L. Delle Monache, A. Fournier, S. Linden, and W. Myers

781
Evaluation of wind ramp forecasts from an initial version of a rapid update dynamical-statistical ramp prediction system
John W. Zack, AWS Truepower, LLC, Troy, NY; and S. H. Young and E. J. Natenberg

782
Application Of An Operational Meso-Scale Modelling System For Industiral Plant Energy Operations
Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish, D. Pinckney, and R. Calio

Handout (8.0 MB)

783
Observations and downscaled predictions of effects of land use and urban heat island on climate
Benjamin J. Hatchett, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Koracin, J. T. Abatzoglou, S. D. Bassett, and M. Dolloff

784
Numerical weather forecast with variational data assimilation in the Andes
Estatio J. Gutiérrez, City College of New York, New York, NY; and A. Muñoz


Poster Session 4
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Medium/Long Range Forecasting
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
785
An Analysis of Climate Change's Impacts on Future Wind Energy Production in California
David M. Rasmussen Jr., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Holloway and G. F. Nemet

786
Using long range forecasts to assess hydro potential
Michael Ferrari, Coca Cola, Bethlehem, PA

787
The Impact of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Production across the United States: An Illustrative Study using The Renewable Energy Network Optimization Tool (ReNOT)
Randall Alliss, Northrop Grumann Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and R. Link, H. Kiley, D. Apling, G. Higgins, and K. Darmenova

Handout (1.5 MB)

788
Climate change implications of summer coastal cooling on energy demands over US
B. Lebassi, College of New York, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez, O. Rhone, and R. Bornstein

790
Numerical Simulations of a Summer 2010 Heat Wave in New York City using WRF's Building Energy Parameterization
Estatio J. Gutiérrez, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. E. González, R. D. Bornstein, M. Arend, and A. Martilli

Handout (921.9 kB)


Poster Session 5
Renewable Energy: Unintended Consequences??
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
791
Effects of wind turbine wakes on micrometeorological conditions over a crop canopy
Lars Mattison, South Dakota State Univ., Brookings, SD; and D. A. Rajewski, E. S. Takle, J. L. Hatfield, and J. H. Prueger

792
Characteristics of wind turbine wakes in an intensively managed agricultural area
Aaron J. Rosenberg, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and J. K. Lundquist, A. J. Deppe, D. A. Rajewski, M. E. Rhodes, M. L. Aitken, and E. S. Takle

793
The impact of wind energy on weather: studies with a simplified model
Daniel Barrie, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. B. Kirk-Davidoff

794
Considering wildlife impacts in building the new energy economy
Justin Allegro, National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC; and A. Staudt and R. Curry


Poster Session 6
Weather, Climate and Policy: Issues for the New Energy Economy
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
795
Advanced nuclear power systems to mitigate climate change
Charles Archambeau, Science Council for Global Initiatives, Boulder, CO; and T. Blees, Y. Chang, R. J. Peterson, R. Serafin, J. Shuster, E. Velikhov, and R. Ware

Handout (1.0 MB)

796
Calculating the carbon emissions associated with San Jose's Green Vision goals
Eugene Cordero, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and L. Prada


Poster Session 7
Special Topics in Weather, Climate and the New Energy Economy
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
798
Ensemble wind speed forecasting for a wind plant in British Columbia
Selena Katharine Farris, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and M. Rucker, R. B. Stull, and H. Modzelewski

Handout (7.8 MB)

799
Observed and simulated interactions between electricity consumption and urban surface air temperatures in downtown Tokyo and Osaka
Yukihiro Kikegawa, Meisei Univ., Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Ohashi, T. Ihara, and H. Kondo

800
Regional climate modeling and energy demand projections for selected Colorado sites
Glenn Higgins, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and K. Darmenova, D. Apling, and H. Kiley

802
Solar Thermal Drinking Water Production: Weather Challenges and Climate Change
Hugo A. Loaiciga, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA

803
Development of low cost X-Band Radar for rain reflectivity measurements in the western region of Puerto Rico
Gianni Alexis Pablos, Univ. of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and J. G. Colom, J. Ortiz, S. Cruz-Pol, and J. Trabal

804
Analysis of solar radiation measurements for decentralized solar energy usage in the New York City metropolitan area
Beate G. Liepert, NWRA NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA; and C. D. Klose

805
Wind ramp events at an Iowa wind farm: a climatology and evaluation of WRF ensemble forecast skill
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and A. J. Deppe
Manuscript (741.1 kB)

Handout (894.3 kB)

806
Improvement of a wind map over the Korean Peninsula based on mesoscale model WRF
Young-Jean Choi, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Y. Byon and B. K. Seo

808
Automatic Wind Turbine Detection Using Level-II Data
B. L. Cheong, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. D. Palmer and S. M. Torres

Handout (11.5 MB)

809
The effects of varying meteorological conditions on power production at a central North American wind farm
Brian Joseph Vanderwende, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist

Handout (454.9 kB)

810
A comparison of turbine-based and farm-based methods for converting wind to power
Julia M. Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener, B. Lambi, and W. Myers
Manuscript (444.5 kB)

Handout (957.4 kB)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Weather and Climate Applications for Energy Decision Support—II
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Chair: Mitchell T. Baer, Dept. of Energy
4:15 PM
J9.1A
NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Web services
William S. Chandler, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and J. M. Hoell, D. Westberg, C. H. Whitlock, T. Zhang, and P. W. Stackhouse Jr.
4:30 PM
J9.2
The Wind ENergy Data and Information (WENDI) Gateway: New information and analysis tools for wind energy stakeholders
Dale Kaiser, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN; and G. Palanisamy, S. Santhana-Vannan, Y. Wei, T. Smith, M. Starke, B. Wilson, and L. Wibking
4:45 PM
J9.3
Estimation of confidence intervals for wind forecasts
Robert Mureau, Meteo Group, Wageningen, Netherlands

5:00 PM
J9.4
Nobody Lives at the Airport
Lawrence Heitkemper, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and D. D. Kirk-Davidoff, T. Hartman, and R. Haas
5:15 PM
J9.6
From Coordination to Collaboration: Energy Meteorology and the Public-Private Value Chain
Steve Woll, WeatherFlow Inc., Poquoson, VA; and J. Titlow and D. Green

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 26 January 2011


91st AMS Awards Banquet
Location: 6ABCD (Washington State Convention Center)

Thursday, 27 January 2011

8:00 AM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium

Weather Video Preview Theater
Location: 303 (Washington State Convention Center)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 5
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Short Range Forecasting I
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Julie K. Lundquist, University of Colorado at Boulder
8:30 AM
5.1
Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Wind Ramp Forecasts
Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. Stern and S. Calvert
8:45 AM
5.2
9:00 AM
5.3
Progress in NOAA hourly-updated model forecasting for renewable energy guidance
Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, J. M. Brown, M. Marquis, J. B. Olson, S. S. Weygandt, C. R. Alexander, and G. Dimego
9:15 AM
5.4
Short-term wind-speed forecasting system for wind power applications
Justin Joseph Traiteur, Weather Central LP, Madison, WI; and S. Baidya Roy
9:30 AM
5.5

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Exhibit Hours

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 6
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Short Range Forecasting II
Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jennifer States, PNNL
11:00 AM
6.1
11:15 AM
6.2
Spatial and temporal variability of incoming solar irradiance at a measurement site in Hawai'i
Laura M. Hinkelman, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. George, S. Wilcox, and M. Sengupta
11:30 AM
6.3
Observational targeting using ensemble sensitivity analysis to Improve short-term wind power forecasting in the Mid-Columbia Basin
Edward J. Natenberg, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY; and S. Young, G. Van Knowe, J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, and C. Kamath
11:45 AM
6.4
An overview of NCAR's advanced wind forecasting system for integrating wind resources into the new energy economy
David B. Johnson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Mahoney, Y. Liu, G. Wiener, W. Myers, and K. Parks
12:00 PM
6.5
WindNET: An advanced wind sensor network to improve short-range wind forecasts for electric utility dispatch and operation
John Manobianco, AWS Truepower LLC, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack, S. Young, D. Nakafuji, T. Aukai, L. Rogers, and L. Dangelmaier
Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Communicating Uncertainty (Themed Joint Session)
Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; and the Second Symposium on Environment and Health )
Chair: Manda Adams, Univ. of North Carolina
11:15 AM
J8.2
User engagement for water resources forecasts: a framework for iterative communication
Kevin Werner, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and K. Averyt and G. Owen
11:45 AM
J8.4
Meaning, Context, and Weather-Related Information Sharing
Susan A. Jasko, California Univ. of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and C. M. Kauffman and P. Hettler
12:00 PM
J8.5
Communicating Satellite MW Ocean Product Errors to a Variety of Users
Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz, K. Hilburn, and C. A. Mears

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session
Presidential Town Hall Meeting
Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 14th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Michio Yanai Symposium; the 27th Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS); the 25th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Symposium on Education; the 18th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 16th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 13th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Ninth History Symposium; the 8th Conference on Space Weather; the Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Sixth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 5th Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Fourth Annual CCM Forum; the Third Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Second Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration; the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Second Symposium on Environment and Health; the First Conference on Transition of Research to Operations: Successes, Plans and Challenges; the Special Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the More Effectively Communicating the Science of Tropical Climate and Tropical Cyclones; and the Special Symposium on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology )
12:15 PM
Ensuring Integrity in the Doing and Using of Science
Ralph Cicerone, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Michio Yanai Symposium Luncheon
Location: 4C-1 (Washington State Convention Center)

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 7A
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Short Range Forecasting III
Location: 6A (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Cegeon J. Chan, MIT
1:30 PM
7A.1
Overview of the eastern Washington wind energy study
Larry K. Berg, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. D. Fast, R. K. Newsom, M. Pekour, W. J. Shaw, C. A. Finley, and J. R. McCaa
1:45 PM
7A.2
Do More Sophisticated Models Improve the Accuracy of Wind Resource Estimates?
Philippe Beaucage, AWS Truepower LLC, Albany, NY; and J. Manobianco and M. Brower

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 7B
Continuation of Dollars and Cents: Weather for Energy Markets and Weather Fundamentals for Energy Planning: Data and User Groups
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA
1:30 PM
7B.1
Does it matter to the atmosphere where wind farms are located?
Amanda S. Adams, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
1:45 PM
7B.2
Solar resource maps for renewable energy
Ray George, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Sengupta and S. Wilcox
2:00 PM
7B.3
New wind energy resource potential estimates for the United States
Dennis Elliott, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Schwartz, S. Haymes, D. Heimiller, G. Scott, M. Brower, E. Hale, and B. Phelps

Handout (4.5 MB)

2:15 PM
7B.4
Assessment of the gross U.S. offshore wind energy potential
Marc Schwartz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and D. Heimiller and S. Haymes
Manuscript (760.9 kB)

2:30 PM
7B.5
Optimal unit commitment and dispatch for wind farm operations
Jay Mashburn, IBM, Mansfield, TX; and J. Bloom, J. R. Kalagnanam, and L. A. Treinish
2:45 PM
7B.6

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 8
Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Medium/Long Range Forecasting
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jerry H. Crescenti, Iberdrola Renewables
2:00 PM
8.1
The impact of anthropogenic global warming on the United States wind resource
Daniel Barrie, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. B. Kirk-Davidoff
2:15 PM
8.2
Seasonal forecasting for wind energy applications
Jeffrey M. Freedman, AWS Truewind LLC, Albany, NY; and L. Fusina, M. Brower, and J. Manobianco
2:30 PM
8.3
500mb Synoptic Precursors for Severe Cold in the Midwest/Northeast U.S
Kristen Guirguis, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. Gershunov and S. Bennett
2:45 PM
8.4
Climate change, hurricane risk to energy systems, and implications for the new energy economy
Seth D. Guikema, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and S. M. Quiring and R. Nateghi

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


Coffee Break

Meet the President

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 9A
Renewable Energy: Unintended Consequences??
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jan Kleissl, University of California, san diego
3:45 PM
9A.2
Effect of wind turbine wakes on cropland surface fluxes in the US great plains during a nocturnal low level jet
Michael E. Rhodes, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Aitken, J. K. Lundquist, E. S. Takle, and J. H. Prueger

4:00 PM
9A.3
A WRF simulation of the effect of a large wind farm on 40 years of precipitation in the eastern United States
David B. Sherman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. Fiedler, M. S. Bukovsky, and A. S. Adams

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 9B
Supply/Demand Funds: Short-Range Forecasting IV
Location: 4C-2 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC
3:45 PM
9B.2
Lidar measurements of wind flow characteristics for inland and offshore Wind Eenergy
Yelena L. Pichugina, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta, R. M. Hardesty, and W. A. Brewer
4:00 PM
9B.3
Kalman filter, analog and wavelet postprocessing in the NCAR-Xcel operational wind-energy forecasting system
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fournier, T. M. Hopson, Y. Liu, B. Mahoney, G. Roux, and T. Warner
4:15 PM
9B.4
Statistical Analysis of intra-farm microscale wind characteristics at selected Xcel wind farms
Yuewei Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, W. Cheng, G. Wiener, B. Lambi, and B. Mahoney
4:30 PM
9B.5
An Investigation into the Spatiotemporal Scale of Two Wind Ramp Events in Northeastern Colorado
Theresa A. Aguilar, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, Y. Liu, and B. Mahoney

4:45 PM
9B.6
Wind energy forecasting with the NCAR RTFDDA and ensemble RTFDDA systems
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Y. Y. Cheng, G. Roux, Y. Liu, L. Delle Monache, M. Pocernich, B. Kosovic, T. M. Hopson, A. Bourgeois, G. Wiener, T. Warner, B. Mahoney, and D. B. Johnson

4:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011

Recording files available
Session 10
Weather, Climate and Policy: Issues for the New Energy Economy
Location: 4C-4 (Washington State Convention Center)
Host: Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA
4:30 PM
10.1
Are Policies to Encourage Wind Energy Predicated on a Misleading Statistic?
Kevin F. Forbes, Catholic Univ. of America, Washington, DC; and M. Stampini and E. Zampelli
4:45 PM
10.2
The need to go slow with renewable energy development
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 27 January 2011


AMS 91st Annual Meeting Adjourns