Adaptive Forecasting—Improving End User Understanding of Tropical Cyclones

The primary mechanism through which most end users are introduced to topics related to tropical cyclones is via forecasts of active invests and tropical cyclones made by the National Hurricane Center. However, conveying essential information related to track and intensity of a tropical cyclone often limits the ability to effectively educate a wide spectrum of end users. User groups ranging from emergency managers to varied industries to the general public all have different needs from a forecast, but also have their own terminology through which optimal communication is achieved. By adopting a user-oriented forecast that incorporates relevant terminology it becomes possible to convey useful scientific information within the limited scope of a short or summary forecast. Utilizing this approach, it becomes feasible to convey bite sized chunks of the critical science behind tropical cyclone formation, track and intensity by focusing on a key scientific point for a specific tropical cyclone through various stages of its lifespan from pre-formation through landfall. This technique allows the relevant end user to absorb critical scientific elements in a format and time frame more accessible to a non subject matter expert. Adaptive forecasting also allows for preemptive navigation through anticipated media response to National Hurricane Center forecasts with respect to how the user should respond, while also indicating how others may respond to media coverage of a given tropical cyclone or invest area.