A Future Warning Concept: Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs)

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a new paradigm proposed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for National Weather Service (NWS) generation of hazardous weather information. This paradigm is intended to serve as an optimized and comprehensive system whereby the temporal, spatial and data continuum of hazardous weather information is readily communicated and effectively used. At the heart of the paradigm is the use of grid-based probabilistic hazard information (PHI) as a means of incorporating storm-scale model and statistical output (e.g., Warn on Forecast and Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms [MYRORSS]) into SPC and WFO operations. Recognizing that any new forecasting paradigm will only be successful if it effectively influences the response of end users, FACETs will also address the need to make probabilistic forecasts understandable and actionable by decision-makers. This will involve collaboration with the social science community. This presentation will describe the seven components (or facets) of the paradigm, the challenges in implementing it, and the potential benefits to the nation, the private sector partners of the NWS, and the NWS itself. Other presentations in the conference will address the specific activities being proposed as part of FACETs.