Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017

Program Chairs: Tanja E. Fransen , NOAA/NWS ; Klaus Wolter , CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder

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Sunday, 7 January 2018

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4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 7 January 2018


Plenary Session 1
18th Presidential Forum: Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise—Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
4:00 PM
PL1.1
Transforming Communication in the Environmental Sciences: Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant (Invited Presentation)
Richard B. Alley, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

Monday, 8 January 2018

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8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Plenary Session 2
Welcoming Address
Location: Austin, Texas

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 1
Major Impacts of 2017 - Drought/Wildfire
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
8:45 AM
1.1
2017 US Northern Plains Drought
Laura Edwards, State of South Dakota, Aberdeen, SD; and T. E. Fransen and D. Kluck
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1.2
The 2017 Wildfire Season: 420,002,017th year of biomass burning on Earth (Invited Presentation)
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.3
Meteorological Observations and Review of the Gatlinburg Wildfire
Matthew E. Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.4
The 6 March 2017 Southern Great Plains Firestorm: Operational Preparedness and Fire Environment Perspectives
Barry R. Bowers, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK; and T. T. Lindley, G. P. Murdoch, B. R. Smith, and D. Daily
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1.5
Environmental and Social factors that led to the October 2017 Northern California Firestorm (Invited Presentation)
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 2
Major Weather Impacts of 2017 - Cool Season Events
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Charles Woodrum, NWS
10:30 AM
2.1
The Fickle Winter of 2016-17 (Invited Presentation)
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2.2
Impactful Rains in California and Snow, Ice, and Cold in Oregon in Early 2017
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Burg and A. M. Bentley
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.3
Observations of California’s Epic 2017 Water Year from Satellite and a 21st Century Ground-based Observing Network
Allen B. White, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Neiman, D. J. Gottas, G. A. Wick, M. Hughes, and L. S. Darby
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.4
Rockslides Result in 12-day Full Closure on US-101 Along North Coast of California During Late April 2017
Richard Lam, NWS, Eureka, CA
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.5
An Extreme early spring weather event across the Central Upper Peninsula of Michigan: Microburst to a foot of Snow
Jaclyn M. Ritzman, NWS, Negaunee, MI; and D. Beachler
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2.6
Uncertainty and risk: An analysis of the March 13-14, 2017 snowstorm impacting the Mid Atlantic and Northeast United States
Denna Geppi, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Jankot
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Lecture 1
2018 Haurwitz Lecture
Location: Salon K (Hilton) (Austin, Texas)
Cochairs: Ángel F. Adames, GFDL; Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ.
2:00 PM
L1.1
Some Observations of Normal Modes in the Atmosphere (Invited Presentation)
George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 3
Major Impacts of 2017 - Warm Season Events
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS
2:00 PM
3.1
Global Weather and Climate Extremes of 2017 (Invited Presentation)
Klaus Wolter, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

3.2
An Extreme Hailstorm in Istanbul: July 27, 2017 Case

2:30 PM
3.3
Super Typhoon Hato — Observations, Forecasting and Warning
P. W. Chan, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China; and T. C. Lee
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3.4
Tropical Cyclone Debbie (2017): Evaluating Analytically- and Numerically-Driven Wind and Storm Tide Hazards and Impacts
Richard J Krupar III, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. S. Mason, T. Kloetzke, D. J. Smith, and D. Henderson
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3.5
U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters of 2017 - in Context
Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NCEI, Asheville, NC

3:15 PM
3.6
Comparison of Radar and Ground based Hail Observations During the May 8 Hail Storm in Denver, Colorado
V. Chandrasekar, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. K. Biswas, I. Arias, K. E. Willmot, S. Bussmann, and A. Kubicek

3:30 PM
3.7
The May 17,2017 Derecho in Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin
David A. Imy, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
3.8
The 2017 Tornado and Severe Weather Season (Invited Presentation)
Russell Schneider, NOAA/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and P. Marsh
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
3.9
2017 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season (Invited Presentation)
Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Poster Session
Major Weather Impacts of 2017 Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Cochairs: Klaus Wolter, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder; Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS
374
The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions of 2017 in Historical Perspective
Jake Crouch, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt, A. Sanchez-Lugo, K. Gleason, and C. Fenimore

375
Anticipating QLCS Tornadogenesis for Decision Support: The Three-Ingredient Method During the 19-20 February 2017 South-Central Texas Tornadic QLCS Event
Brett M. Williams, NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and J. S. Allen and J. W. Zeitler
Manuscript (4.1 MB)

Handout (3.1 MB)

376
Inland Impacts from Hurricane Matthew across North Carolina
Jonathan Blaes, NOAA/NWS, Raleigh, NC

377
A Synoptic, Mesoscale and Radar Review for the Southeast Tennessee Tornado Outbreak of 30 November 2016
Jeremy L. Buckles, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and E. M. Hagner and D. G. Hotz

378
Case Study of the High Impact 6 Jan 2017 Icing Event across Central Mississippi
Eric E. Carpenter, NOAA/NWSFO, Jackson, MS; and B. Bryant and C. Entremont

379
Far-Reaching Impacts of the February 2017 Rapidly Intensifying, Extratropical Hurricane Force Low over the North Atlantic Ocean
Brad James Reinhart, NOAA, College Park, MD

380
Analysis of Multiple Atmospheric River Impacts on California in Early 2017
Alison F.C. Bridger, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and L. Bate

381
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Contributions to February 7 - 9 2017 Event
Ralph Johnson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

382
2 April 2017 Louisiana Tornado Outbreak
Robert Megnia, NWS, Lake Charles, LA; and T. W. Humphrey and J. Rackley

383
An Analysis of the Spring 2017 Record Flooding Event in Northern Arkansas
Christopher C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR; and T. Clarke and J. B. Hood

384
A Case of Prolific QLCS Tornado Production: The Lower Mississippi River Valley Tornado Outbreak of 30 April, 2017
Chad Entremont, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Jackson, MS; and A. E. Cohen, N. Fenner, S. K. Hefferan, J. D. Lamb, and T. Winesett

385
A Radar and Warning Decision Analysis of an Anomalous Tornadic Supercell in the Texas Panhandle
Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Lubbock, TX; and S. Cobb and G. Skwira

386
Real Time Communication Challenges of the April 29th Canton, Texas Area Tornado Outbreak
Mark Fox, NOAA/NWSFO, Fort Worth, TX; and T. M. Ryan

387
Putting the Record Breaking May 8th Denver Hail Storm into Historical Context

388
Operational Use of Experimental Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Prior to the 16 May 2017 Elk City, Oklahoma Tornado
Gabriel S. Garfield, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. J. Choate, P. L. Heinselman, T. Lindley, P. S. Skinner, and R. Smith

389
An Analysis of a Trio of Derechos Affecting the Midsouth Region on Memorial Day Weekend

390
Fine-Scale Multiple-Doppler and Thermodynamic Observations in an Eclipse
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 8 January 2018


Ryan Symposium Reception
Location: The Reverbery at the Hilton (Austin, Texas)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 4
Hurricanes of 2017: Part I
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Klaus Wolter, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
8:30 AM
4.1
Low Altitude Coyote UAS Missions into Major Hurricane Maria
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and K. Ryan, A. Aksoy, B. A. Dahl, J. Zhang, E. A. Kalina, B. B. Baker, and E. J. Dumas Jr.
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
4.2
The Role of Small-Scale Vortices in Enhancing Surface Winds and Damage in Hurricane Harvey
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4.3
New Remote Sensing Technologies to Monitor Tropical Cyclones in Near Real-Time
Chris Vagasky, Vaisala, Inc., Louisville, CO; and M. J. Murphy, R. Said, and S. Early
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
4.4
A Review of NCEP Model Guidance for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, and A. Mehra
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4.5
The 2017 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Real-Time Experiments
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bender, G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, F. Toepfer, and F. D. Marks Jr.
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4.6
The 2017 NOAA Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)
Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Coffee . Break

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 5
Hurricanes of 2017—Part II
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: Owen H. Shieh, Joint Typhoon Warning Center
10:30 AM
5.1
Advanced Analysis and Prediction of Hurricane Harvey with NOAA’s Newly Developed NGGPS Model and Assimilation of the Newly Launched GOES-16 All-Sky Radiance
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; and X. Chen, M. Minamide, R. Nystrom, S. J. Lin, and L. Harris
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
5.2
Quantifying Dynamic Storm Surge Forecasts for Emergency Management Decision Makers during Hurricane Irma
Katherine Ertell, FEMA, Atlanta, GA; and B. Bolinski and R. Moulton
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
5.3
Supporting the Movement of Fleet Utility Vehicles for the Restoration of Power: An Example of the Weather Enterprise at Work
Dave Jones, StormCenter Communications, Inc., Halethorpe, MD; and T. Moran, R. de Ameller, T. Wible, and E. Robinson

11:15 AM
5.4
NASA Earth Science Disasters Program Response Activities During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017
Jordan R. Bell, Univ. of Alabama—Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. A. Schultz, A. L. Molthan, D. B. Kirschbaum, M. Román, S. H. Yun, F. J. Meyer, K. A. Hogenson, R. Gens, H. M. Goodman, S. Owen, R. Amini, Y. Lou, M. Glasscoe, D. S. Green, J. J. Murray, J. C. Struve, J. Seepersad, and V. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
5.5
Harvey: An Exceptional Rainfall Event (Invited Presentation)
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
5.6
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria: Did Climate Change Play a Role? (Invited Presentation)
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018

Recording files available
Session 6
Hurricanes of 2017—Part III
Location: Ballroom D (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Chair: William Read, Former Director, National Hurricane Center
1:30 PM
6.1
Effective Messaging of Hurricane Harvey’s Impacts across South Texas
Mike Buchanan, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and K. M. Wagner, T. Johnstone, and J. Metz
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
6.2
Grappling with Harvey’s Extreme Rainfall (Invited Presentation)
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. W. Carbin
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
6.3
Tornadoes in a Flash Flood Emergency, a Messaging Challenge (Invited Presentation)
Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS/Weather Forecast Office, Dickinson, TX; and L. Wood and T. Johnstone
Recorded Presentation

6.4
Communicating a No Impact Forecast — When the "Why" Becomes Important

2:15 PM
6.4A
NWS at Full Tilt: Supporting Operations for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
Jonathan Kurtz, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and K. LaBelle, J. McNatt, C. McKinney, L. E. Pagano, A. Nieves, G. Heavener, C. Dalton, and C. Rothwell

2:30 PM
6.5
Record-Setting Irma: How to Mobilize a Hurricane-Tested Population Via Traditional and New Media
John Toohey-Morales, WTVJ NBC-6, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
6.6
NWS Key West Operations and Decision Support Before, During, and After Hurricane Irma's Impact on the Florida Keys (Invited Presentation)
Matthew J. Moreland, NOAA/NWSFO, Key West, FL
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
6.8
Effectively Issuing Warnings and Disseminating Information During Hurricane Maria when Observations, Radar and Communications Fails (Invited Presentation)
Travis Washington, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR; and E. Rodriguez, R. Garcia-Hiraldo, I. Colon-Pagan, and G. Lojero
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
6.7
High Impact Meteorology Supporting Response and Recovery During and After Two Devastating Hurricanes
Kevin Scharfenberg, NOAA, Miami, FL; and E. Rodriguez, E. Morales, A. Treadway, A. Devanas, J. Rizzo, M. J. Moreland, M. Davison, R. Cabrera, J. McNatt, and S. White
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
6.9
Unspoken Truths: The Impacts of Disasters on Meteorologists
Christina Crowe, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 9 January 2018


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)

Poster Session
Hurricanes of 2017 Poster Session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Host: Major Weather Events and Impacts of 2017
Cochairs: Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS; Klaus Wolter, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder
790
Large-scale Real-time Approximate Inundation Mapping during Harvey using the Height Above Nearest Drainage
Xing Zheng, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and D. Maidment, E. M. Boghici, D. Arctur, H. R. Evans, S. Liu, C. Proctor, and N. Gaffney

791
Hurricane Harvey's Impacts across South Texas
Michael E. Buchanan, NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Handout (4.5 MB)

792
A Detailed Rainfall Analysis and Probabilistic Perspective of Hurricane Harvey’s Extraordinary Rainfall
Tye W. Parzybok, MetStat, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and S. K. Bokn, K. Ward, R. Caldwell, and A. H. Dietrich

793
Hurricane Harvey the Name Says It All
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and B. J. Miretzky

794
Global Ensemble Forecasts of Hurricane Irma:Uncertainty Associated with United States Landfall
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and B. J. Miretzky and C. Guastini

795
How Does the Land Surface Condition Affect Precipitation and Intensity of Hurricane Harvey (2017) after Landfall?
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng

796
Impact of Major Hurricanes to Hit Texas Coastal Bend Regions
Audrey Flores, Texas A&M, Corpus Christi, TX; and N. Liu

797
Message from Irma: A Need to Understand the Words and Images Used in Hurricane Watches, Warnings, and Other Hurricane-related Products
H. Michael Mogil, How The Weatherworks, Naples, FL

798
High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center during Hurricane Irma
Ryan K. Decker, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Barbre Jr., T. Wilfong, L. L. Huddleston, and T. Brauer
Manuscript (587.4 kB)

799
Mapping of Winds in Landfalling Irma from Two DOWs and Several Pods Deployed near Naples, Florida
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. Kosiba

800
Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Using ENGLN Lightning Data
Saiadithya Cumbulam Thangaraj, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and J. Lapierre and M. Stock

801
A Simple Statistical Model for the Lifetime Evolution of Outer Tropical Cyclone Size
Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and N. Lin, D. R. Chavas, M. Oppenheimer, and A. Brammer

802
Best Practices for Keeping Broadcast Crews Safe During Coverage of Extreme Weather Events

Wednesday, 10 January 2018

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12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 10 January 2018


Lunch Break
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