Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology

Program Chairs: Brian E. Potter , USDA Forest Service ; Timothy J. Brown , DRI

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Monday, 17 October 2011

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 17 October 2011


Registration Opens
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Foyer (Hotel Zoso)

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011


Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Foyer (Hotel Zoso)

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 1
Welcome
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Cochairs: Timothy J. Brown, DRI; Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service
9:00 AM
1.1
Welcoming Remarks
9:15 AM
1.2
Integrating Science and Regional-Scale Fire Operations: Perspectives and Ideas based on the Historic 2011 Fire Season in the Southwest Area. Charles Maxwell, SCC, Albuquerque, NM

9:45 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Foyer (Hotel Zoso)

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 2
Operational Forecasting
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: J. D. Carlson, Oklahoma State University
10:15 AM
2.1
A Demonstration of Potential of GOES-R to Incident Meteorologists: Future Use of Satellites for Weather Support to Firefighters
Peter Roohr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Stewart, S. Schranz, L. Grasso, B. Reed, and B. Sjoberg
10:30 AM
2.2
Preliminary meteorological analyses of the 2011 ‘Texas Firestorms'
T. Todd Lindley, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and G. D. Skwira, G. P. Murdoch, and J. L. Guyer
10:45 AM
2.3
11:00 AM
2.4
Uncertainty in Model-Generated Fire Weather Values: How Does Model Variability Influence the Reliability of Dry Thunderstorm Risk and Ignition Potential Predictions?
Stacy Drury, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and M. Rorig, K. Craig, N. Wheeler, S. Strenfel, and P. D. Bothwell

11:30 AM
2.6A
The use of analog guidance in forecasting Southern Plains wildfire outbreaks
Jeffrey D. Vitale, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and T. T. Lindley, C. M. Gravelle, and C. E. Graves
12:00 PM
2.7
WRF forecasts of critical fire weather conditions in the San Francisco Bay Area
Rie Onodera, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and K. Clifford, S. Chiao, and C. B. Clements

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 3
Modeling I
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service
1:30 PM
3.1
Modeling biomass burnings by coupling a sub-grid scale plume model with Adaptive Grid CMAQ
Aika Yano Davis, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and M. T. Odman
1:45 PM
Paper 3.2 has been moved. New poster number 23.

2:00 PM
3.2A
Examining the ability of numerical models to forecast pyrocumulus
Steven E. Peckham, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. Schranz, M. Fromm, and B. E. Potter

2:15 PM
3.3
The Kangaroo Island bushfires of 2007 A meteorological case study and WRF-fire simulation
Mika Peace, Adelaide University/Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, SA, Australia; and T. Mattner and G. Mills
2:30 PM
3.4
Large eddy simulation of canopy-structure effects on smoke dispersion from low-burning prescribed fires
Gil Bohrer, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, Ohio; and S. R. Garrity, E. K. Chatziefstratiou, and W. E. Heilman
2:45 PM
3.5
3:00 PM
3.6
Examining Mountain Pine Beetle Impacts on Coupled Fire/Vegetation/Atmosphere Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Stands Using FIRETEC
Rodman Linn, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. H. Sieg, J. Winterkamp, R. Parsons, and C. Hoffman

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 4
Climate
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Narasimhan K. ("Sim") Larkin, USDA Forest Service
3:30 PM
4.1
Towards a processed-based understanding of climate-fire relationships of the western United States
John T. Abatzoglou, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and C. A. Kolden, T. J. Brown, and K. L. Riley
3:45 PM
4.2
Projections of future meteorological forest fire danger in the European Alps
Clemens Wastl, Technische Universität München, Freising, Germany; and C. Schunk and A. Menzel
4:00 PM
4.3
Climate change and fire danger rating in the Northern Rocky Mountains and Eastern Great Basin
Faith Ann Heinsch, U.S. Forest Service, Missoula, MT; and C. McHugh, L. S. Baggett, and L. S. Bradshaw
4:15 PM
4.4
Future U.S. Wildfire Potential Trends Projected using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios
Yongqiang Liu, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA; and S. L. Goodrick and J. A. Stanturf

4:30 PM
4.5
Summertime rainfall events in eastern Oregon and Washington
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and N. A. Bond, A. M. Chiodi, and J. Barbour

4:45 PM
4.6
The fallacy of area burned: Climate impacts on unburned area within fire perimeters
Crystal A. Kolden, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and J. Lutz, C. H. Key, J. V. W. van Wagtendonk, and J. Kane
5:00 PM
4.7
Climate and Megafires
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada; and J. T. Abatzoglou and N. Nauslar

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 18 October 2011


Poster Session 1
Posters
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service
1
Observations of atmospheric canopy layer turbulence generated by a low-Intensity prescribed fire
Xindi Bian, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and W. E. Heilman, J. J. Charney, J. L. Hom, K. L. Clark, N. S. Skowronski, M. Gallagher, M. Patterson, S. Zhong, M. T. Kiefer, and R. P. Shadbolt

2
Development of a fine scale smoke dispersion modeling system: Part I—Validation of the canopy model component
Michael T. Kiefer, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and S. Zhong, W. E. Heilman, J. J. Charney, X. Bian, and R. P. Shadbolt
Manuscript (193.1 kB)

P4 has been moved. New paper number 2.6A

6
Encouraging Community Wildfire Awareness
Robyn Heffernan, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID; and C. H. Jones and K. Lynott

7
Fuel types and consumption associated with smoke emissions in southwestern U.S. fuels
David R. Weise, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA; and J. Chong, G. Burke, B. Corcoran, and C. W. Miller

8
Carbon dioxide and methane efflux in burned versus unburned soils of western and central South Dakota
Frances A. Sewell, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and D. Clabo

9
NWS Fire Weather Decision Support—Now and in the Future
Robyn Heffernan, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID; and H. Hockenberry and L. VanBussum

P10 has been moved. New paper number 3.2A

12
Expected impacts of climate change on live fuel moisture content in Mediterranean shrub species
Grazia Pellizzaro, CNR-IBIMET/National Research Council, Sassari, Italy; and A. Ventura, B. Arca, T. Ghisu, P. Masia, and P. Duce

13
Near field pollutant and tracer dispersion during a prescribed pine forest burn
Eugene Allwine, Washington State University, Pullman, WA; and P. O'Keefe, R. Grivicke, T. Strand, V. Cruz, C. Clements, H. Thistle, and B. K. Lamb

14
Laboratory study of fire geometry and plume structure
Karen Perez, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL; and R. Breidenthal and B. E. Potter

15
Extreme Fire Behavior Synthesis and Review Summary
Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and P. Werth, C. B. Clements, M. A. Finney, S. Goodrick, M. Alexander, M. Cruz, J. M. Forthofer, S. McAllister, R. D. Ottmar, W. M. Jolly, and R. Parsons

16
How well does the growing season index correspond to the start of fire season?
Matthew Anaya, San Antonio College, San Antonio, TX; and B. E. Potter and N. K. Larkin
Manuscript (451.5 kB)

17
Identifying the potential for Arctic transport of smoke
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and S. Brown, K. Craig, J. DeWinter, S. Raffuse, T. Strand, P. Roberts, and R. Solomon

18
BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework development
Robert Solomon, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and T. Strand, N. Larkin, S. Raffuse, K. Craig, D. Sullivan, D. Pryden, S. Drury, J. Stilley, J. DeWinter, and F. Y. Leung

19
Wildland Fire Decision Support System air quality tools
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and T. J. Brown, P. Lahm, S. Raffuse, M. Rorig, T. Strand, A. Healy, R. Solomon, and T. Zimmerman

20
Understanding how well satellites detect fires
Sean Raffuse, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and S. Strenfel and N. K. Larkin

21
Monitoring CO, PM2.5, CO2 from low-intensity fires for the development of modeling tools for predicting smoke dispersion
John L. Hom, USDA, Newtown Square, PA; and W. E. Heilman, M. Patterson, K. L. Clark, N. S. Skowronski, X. Bian, N. Saliendra, M. Gallagher, T. Strand, R. Mickler, C. Clements, and D. Seto

22
A simplified model for the study of smoke plume dispersion from grassfires and a methodology for forecasts validation with satellite images
Joaquin Esteban Blanco Sr., Servicio Meteorologico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and G. J. Berri
Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)


Formal Poster Viewing and Reception
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 5
Field Studies
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Faith Ann Heinsch, U.S. Forest Service
8:30 AM
5.1
Observed fire-atmosphere interactions during a low-intensity prescribed fire in a forested environment
Warren E. Heilman, USDA Forest Service, Lansing, MI; and X. Bian, J. L. Hom, K. L. Clark, N. Skowronski, S. Zhong, J. J. Charney, M. Gallagher, M. Patterson, M. T. Kiefer, and R. P. Shadbolt
8:45 AM
5.2
Turbulence velocity spectra and cospectra measured during fire front passage
Daisuke Seto, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and C. B. Clements, F. Snively, and W. E. Heilman
9:00 AM
5.3
Weather and Air Quality Observations Before and During a Wildfire on Deep Organic Soils
Miriam Rorig, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and R. Mickler, C. Krull, and M. Moore
9:15 AM
5.4
Sub-Canopy Smoke Dispersion: Measurements of fire-behavior, fuels, consumption, emissions, plume rise and dispersion near and in a prescribed fire-source
Tara Strand, New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited, Rotorua, WA, New Zealand; and E. Allwine, F. Alonso Garcia, V. Cruz Chercon, D. Seto, R. Mickler, B. Lamb, R. Solomon, X. Bian, C. B. Clements, H. Thistle, and M. Rorig

9:30 AM
5.5
Fire plume kinematic structure observed using Doppler wind lidar
Allison Charland, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and D. Seto and C. B. Clements
9:45 AM
5.6
The Grass Fires on Slopes Experiment
Craig B. Clements, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and D. Seto and W. E. Heilman

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 6
Model II
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Rodman R. Linn, LANL
10:45 AM
6.2
11:00 AM
6.3
Integrating high-resolution static data into WRF for real fire simulations
Jonathan D. Beezley, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and A. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, and J. Mandel
Manuscript (397.6 kB)

11:15 AM
6.4
A wildland fire modeling and visualization environment
Jan Mandel, University of Colorado, Denver, CO; and J. D. Beezley, A. Kochanski, V. Y. Kondratenko, L. Zhang, E. Anderson, J. Daniels II, C. T. Silva, and C. Johnson
11:30 AM
6.5
A multiscale dynamic downscaling technique for application in fire weather forecasting
Hongli Jiang, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, J. H. Teng, F. Moeng, and S. Schranz

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Recording files available
Conference Luncheon with Guest Speaker: Jan van Wagtendonk
Location: Marquis Ballroom (Hotel Zoso)
12:00 PM
IAWF: Francis Fujioka

12:15 PM
Mark Schroeder: Chuck Bushey
12:30 PM
Federal Fire Policy: A Personal Odyssey: Jan W. van Wagtendonk

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 7
Smoke I
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Vera Martins, University of Aveiro
1:30 PM
7.1
Development of a fine scale smoke dispersion modeling system: Part II—Case study of a prescribed burn in the New Jersey Pine Barrens
Michael T. Kiefer, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and W. E. Heilman, S. Zhong, J. J. Charney, X. Bian, R. P. Shadbolt, J. L. Hom, K. L. Clark, N. S. Skowronski, M. Gallagher, and M. Patterson
1:45 PM
7.2
Modeling and laboratory measurements of the development of superfog
Christian Bartolome, Riverside, CA; and M. Princevac, A. Venkatram, S. Mahalingam, G. Achtemeier, and D. R. Weise
2:00 PM
7.3
Meteorology and Air Quality Modeling of a 2009 Prescribed Burn Event
Zion Wang, University of California, Riverside, CA; and C. J. Chien and G. Tonnesen

2:15 PM
7.4
Analysis of High-Resolution Model Output for the Yakima Smoke Intrusion Case Study, 28 September 2009
Miriam Rorig, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and R. Solomon, C. Krull, J. Peterson, and B. Potter

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 8
Improvements to fire danger and fire behavior systems
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington
3:30 PM
8.1
Great Lakes Fire and Fuels Web Portal
John D. Horel, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Pechmann, C. Galli, and R. Ziel
3:45 PM
8.2
Evaluation of fire danger rating systems in moderate fire regimes
Christian Schunk, Technische Universität München, Freising, Germany; and C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, and A. Menzel
4:00 PM
8.3
An investigation of the differences between Real Time Mesoscale Analysis and observed meteorological conditions at RAWS stations in the northeast United States
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and S. Zhong, M. T. Kiefer, G. S. Soter, and A. B. Cinderich
4:15 PM
8.4
Improving computational predictions of wind field by automatic optimization
Tiziano Ghisu, CNR National Research Council, Sassari, Italy; and B. Arca, G. Pellizzaro, A. Arca, A. Ventura, and P. Duce
4:30 PM
8.5
Use of a prototype fire perimeter database for determining weather conditions conducive to large fire growth
Faith Ann Heinsch, U.S. Forest Service, Missoula, MT; and L. T. Hollingsworth, L. L. Kurth, and L. Macholz
4:45 PM
8.6
Weather/fire modeling for fire risk assessment
Francis Fujioka, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Oxnard, CA; and A. Gonzalez-Caban, S. C. Chen, and J. Benoit
5:00 PM
8.7
5:15 PM
8.8
What is the Appropriate RAWS Network?
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada; and J. D. Horel, G. McCurdy, and M. G. Fearon

Thursday, 20 October 2011

8:15 AM-10:15 AM: Thursday, 20 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 9
Smoke II
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Tara Strand, New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited
8:15 AM
9.1
Evaluation of Daysmoke Plume Rise Simulations
Yongqiang Liu, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA; and G. Achtemeier and S. L. Goodrick
8:30 AM
9.2
A thermodynamic approach to estimating smoke plume heights
Kerry R. Anderson, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and A. Pankratz
8:45 AM
9.3
Uncertainties in prescribed fire emissions and their Impact on smoke dispersion predictions
Aika Yano, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and M. T. Odman, R. D. Ottmar, S. L. Goodrick, Y. Liu, and B. Gullett
9:00 AM
9.4
A description and evaluation of WRF/Chem prediction of biomass burn emissions
Martin Stuefer, Geophysical Institute/Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and G. Grell and S. R. Freitas
9:15 AM
9.5
Uncertainties in modeling smoke impacts from wildland fire
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and T. Strand, R. Solomon, S. Drury, S. Raffuse, S. Huang, and S. Strenfel
9:30 AM
9.6
BlueSky Playground: interactive smoke modeling on the web
Sean Raffuse, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and N. K. Larkin, A. Healy, R. Solomon, M. Rorig, T. Strand, and J. Peterson
10:00 AM
9.8

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 20 October 2011


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom West (Hotel Zoso)

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 20 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 10
Model III
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Gary L. Achtemeier, USDA Forest Service
10:45 AM
10.1
The fluid dynamics of steady-state fireline propagation
Mary Ann Jenkins, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Kochanski and S. K. Krueger
11:00 AM
10.2
Coupled atmosphere-fire simulations of the FireFlux experiment: Impacts of model resolution on its performance
Adam Kochanski, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. A. Jenkins, S. K. Krueger, J. Mandel, J. D. Beezley, and C. B. Clements
11:15 AM
10.3
A stochastic simulation model, Fire-Scenario Builder, to predict daily fire events at regional scales
E. Natasha Stavros, University of Washington, School of Forest Resources, Seattle, Wa; and D. McKenzie, N. K. Larkin, and T. Strand
11:30 AM
10.4
Ember transport sensitivity to wind field and source size distribution
Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and H. Charalambous

11:45 AM
10.5
Application of two modelling systems to estimate the impact of forest fires on air quality in an urban area
Vera Martins, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal; and S. Strada, A. I. Miranda, J. H. Amorim, C. Mari, C. Borrego, J. B. Filippi, and F. Bosseur
12:00 PM
10.6
Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Behavior in Highly Heterogeneous Woodlands and the Impacts of Tree Mortality on Fire Spread
Carolyn Hull Sieg, USFS, Flagstaff, AZ; and R. R. Linn, C. Hoffman, J. Winterkamp, and J. McMillin

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 20 October 2011


Lunch Break

1:45 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 20 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 11
Weather and Climate Impacts
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Daisuke Seto, San Jose State University
2:00 PM
11.1
Active Forest Fires Occurred Under Severe Lightning in Alaska
Hiroshi Hayasaka, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; and M. A. Farukh
2:15 PM
11.3
Explosive wildfire growth and the west coast thermal trough
Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
2:45 PM
11.5
3:00 PM
11.6
Using variable column precipitable water as a predictor for large fire potential
Darren Clabo, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. J. Bunkers
3:15 PM
11.7
Convective energy sensitivity to temperature and moisture perturbations
Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and J. Petalio
3:30 PM
11.8
Extreme wildfire events in the Mediterranean and spatio-temporal patterns of relative humidity
Paolo Fiorucci, CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy; and L. Molini, A. Parodi, and M. D'andrea

3:45 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 20 October 2011

Recording files available
Session 12
Closing Remarks
Location: Grand Zoso Ballroom Center (Hotel Zoso)
Host: Ninth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
3:45 PM
12.1
Closing Remarks: Timothy Brown

Friday, 21 October 2011

9:00 AM-5:00 PM: Friday, 21 October 2011


Joshua Tree National Park Field Trip