| Monday, 8 May 2000 |
| 11:30 AM-2:00 PM, Monday
1 Short Course Registration |
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| 1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday
1 Conference Registration |
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| 1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monday
1 Short Course on Climate-Change Detection |
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| Tuesday, 9 May 2000 |
| 7:30 AM-5:00 PM, Tuesday
1 Conference Registration continues through Thursday, 11 May |
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| 9:00 AM-10:20 AM, Tuesday
Joint Session 1 Downscaling (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospherice Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology) |
Organizer: Kenneth Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL
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| 9:00 AM | J1.1 | Downscaling Relationships for Summer Heavy and Widespread Rain Events in the U.S. Midwest
David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. E. Westcott, K. E. Kunkel, and X. Z. Liang |
| 9:20 AM | J1.2 | Synoptic circulation classification and downscaling for the Midwestern United States
J. T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. C. Pryor |
| 9:40 AM | J1.3 | Statistical downscaling of United States regional climate from transient GCM scenarios
William M. Putman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and J. B. Drake and G. Ostrouchov |
| 10:00 AM | J1.4 | Signature of changing wave climate in the North Sea
Arnt Pfizenmayer, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany |
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| 10:20 AM-10:50 AM, Tuesday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:50 AM-11:50 AM, Tuesday
Session 1 Data display and analysis |
Organizer: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
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| 10:50 AM | 1.1 | A Multiple File Analysis Tool for Meteorology
Alfred S. Beebe, NASA/Science & Engineering Services, Inc., Wallops Island, VA |
| 11:10 AM | 1.2 | Interactive Visualization Tools for Exploring Multivariate Atmospheric Science Data
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Cook and M. Macędo |
|  | 1.3 | The Cornu Criterion - A Valid Test for Normality of Small Sample Sizes
Ron Lowther, Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC; and J. F. Griffiths and J. F. Griffiths |
| 11:30 AM | 1.4 | How not to fool yourself with statistics
Albert R. Boehm, Raytheon STX Corporation, Huntsville, AL |
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| 11:50 AM-1:40 PM, Tuesday
Lunch |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday
1 Coffee Break |
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| 3:30 PM-4:49 PM, Tuesday
Session 2 Spatial and space-time statistics |
Organizer: G. Louis Smith, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA
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| 3:30 PM | 2.1 | The use of principal component analysis for climatological inference
Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. H. Compagnucci |
| 3:50 PM | 2.2 | A method for climate signal estimation from incomplete data
Steven C. Sherwood, Universities Space Research Association, Seabroook, MD |
| | 2.3 | Modes of Optimal Persistence in SST and Height Fields
Timothy M. DelSole, COLA, Calverton, MD |
| 4:09 PM | 2.4 | Statistical Analysis of Innovation Vectors
Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Wei and A. VanTuyl |
| 4:29 PM | 2.5 | A non-correlation-based approach to the search for anthropogenic climate change signals
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and R. E. Davis, O. F. Frauenfeld, and S. M. Robeson |
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| 4:50 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day |
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| Wednesday, 10 May 2000 |
| 8:40 AM-9:58 AM, Wednesday
Session 3 Time series |
Organizer: Rick Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 8:40 AM | 3.1 | Trend detectability in climatic parameters
Elizabeth C. Weatherhead, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. C. Reinsel, G. C. Tiao, A. J. Stevermer, and J. E. Frederick |
| | 3.2 | Trend estimation in vector time series with long-range dependence
R. L. Smith; and B. K. Ray |
| | 3.3 | Using the Wavelet Analysis in Estimating Trend Functions
Abdullah Almasri Jr., Göteborg Univ., Göteborg, Sweden |
| 8:58 AM | 3.4 | Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) applied to Portuguese temperature and precipitation amount series
Silvia L. Antunes, Meteorological Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; and H. O. Pires and A. Rocha |
| 9:18 AM | 3.5 | Oceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of Venezuela
Lelys Guenni, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela; and B. Sanso and L. Betancourt |
| 9:38 AM | 3.6 | Theoretical Relationship between SSA and MESA
Jiang Zhihong, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and D. Yuguo |
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| 10:00 AM-10:40 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:40 AM-2:30 PM, Wednesday
Session 4 Short-range forecasting |
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
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| 10:40 AM | 4.1 | Developing local model output statistics (MOS) equations to predict temperature and probability of precipitation
Christopher T Collins, NOAA/NWS, Newport, NC |
| 11:00 AM | 4.2 | AVN-Guided MOS Weather Forecasts for Europe Based on Regression Screening and Cross Validation
Christian Schoelzel, Bonn University, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense and J. Klassen |
| 11:20 AM | 4.3 | A Bayesian hierarchical approach to model output statistics
David J. Nott, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir, R. Kohn, and F. Woodcock |
| 11:40 AM | 4.4 | Wind forecasts for the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney with a Focus on Sydney Harbour
Elly Spark, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and W. T. M. Dunsmuir and S. K. Kim |
| 12:00 PM | | Lunch
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| 1:30 PM | 4.5 | Comparison of CART and MDA for statistical sky cover forecast Models
William R. Burrows, Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson |
| 1:50 PM | 4.6 | Flexible discriminant techniques for forecasting clear-air turbulence
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Nychka, B. G. Brown, and R. Sharman |
| | 4.7 | Conditional Tornado Probabilities from RUC-2 Forecasts
Thomas Hamill, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Church |
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| 2:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday
Coffee Break |
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| 3:00 PM-4:40 PM, Wednesday
Joint Session 2 Weather Derivatives (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology |
Organizer: Todd Anderson, Virginia Power, Glen Allen, VA
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| 4:40 PM, Wednesday
Oral Sessions End for the Day |
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| 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Wednesday
Joint Poster Session 1 Joint Poster Viewing with Buffet (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology) |
| | JP1.1 | Difference in the secular trend and evolution in seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperatures within several groups of Swiss climatological stations
Patricia Elisabeth Jungo, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland |
| | JP1.2 | Intraseasonal temperature oscillations in the United States
Richard W. Stimets, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and K. B. Ahlstrom |
| | JP1.3 | A statistical study of climate variability in North Carolina
Ryan P. Boyles, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, K. C. Chhak, A. S. Pratt, and W. M. Sellers |
| | JP1.4 | Applying a KZ filter for studying North Carolina temperature and precipitation patterns associated with ENSO
Brian W. Potter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi |
| | JP1.5 | A preliminary evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks using GIS
Gloria Dickie-Forthun, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and S. Meyer |
| | JP1.6 | Development of a low pressure index as a proxy for dry season severe weather in florida and its relationship with ENSO
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL |
| | JP1.7 | A Preliminary Investigation of the Relationship Between Solar Flux and Hurricane Intensity
Phillip A. Zuzolo, Autometric Incorporated, Springfield, VA; and A. M. Powell and B. J. Zuzolo |
| | JP1.8 | Preliminary Verification of a Proposed Solar-Terrestrial Relationship with Potential Weekly, Monthly, and Decadal Implications
Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Incorporated, Springfield, VA; and M. P. A. Zuzolo and M. B. J. Zuzolo |
| | JP1.9 | Midwestern Snow Swaths: Empirical Observations of the Influence of Fresh Snow Cover on Temperature
David Travis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI; and S. Curran and A. Nielsen |
| | JP1.10 | Comparison between cooperative observer data and co-located meteorological tower network in North Carolina
Aaron Sims, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman |
| | JP1.11 | Rescue and integration of the Polar Continental Shelf Project data set for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski and B. Alt |
| | JP1.12 | ENSO events and daily rainfall in Ecuador
Frédéric Rossel, USDA/ARS, El Reno, OK; and E. Cadier, P. Le Goulven, and R. Calvez |
| | JP1.13 | Application of CALMET to the Raleigh-Durham area: A case for denser surface observation to improve model simulations
Robert C. Gilliam, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman and D. S. Niyogi |
| | JP1.14 | Real-time calibration of WSR-88D precipitation estimates
David R Legates, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and K. R. Nixon and T. D. Stockdale |
| | JP1.15 | Design and implementation of an RF based Weather Station Network
Vinayak K. Parameshwara, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman |
| | JP1.16 | Comparison of Scanner and Wide-field-of-view Emitted Radiation Measurements from ERBE NOAA 9 Satellite
T. Dale Bess, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and C. Collimore |
| | JP1.17 | Effect of local landuse on climate data from an instrumented tower in a remote urban locality
Robert C. Gilliam, State Climate Office of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman, D. S. Niyogi, and J. White |
| | JP1.18 | Quality assurance of temperature observations at the National Climatic Data Center
Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. E. Duchon |
| | JP1.19 | A Java-based web plotting and analysis package for the NC AgNet
Dhaval Thakkar, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi, S. Raman, and V. K. Parameshwara |
| | JP1.20 | A statistical analysis of the frequency of extreme meteorological events in Missouri
Preston W. Leftwich, Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO |
| | JP1.21 | A random resampling approach to evaluate spatial representativeness of short temperature time-series
David E. Atkinson, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and K. Gajewski |
| | JP1.22 | Finding Meaning in Chaos
Caroline Woolcock, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom |
| | JP1.23 | Development of new climate and plant adaptation maps for China
Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and W. Gibson, D. Hannaway, and G. Taylor |
| | JP1.24 | Products, reports and analyses from NCDC's Climate Monitoring Group
Thomas R. Ross, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. S. Godfrey and R. R. Heim |
| | JP1.25 | EVAPORATION TRENDS OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE FORMER USSR
Valentin S. Golubev, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; and N. A. Speranskaya, S. A. Zhuravin, P. Y. Groisman, J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, T. C. Peterson, and R. W. Malone |
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| Thursday, 11 May 2000 |
| 8:40 AM-11:59 AM, Thursday
Joint Session 3 Climate forecasting (Joint between 15th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and 12th Conference on Applied Climatology) |
Organizer: W. Matt Briggs, Doubleclick, New York, NY
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| 8:40 AM | J3.1 | Is Monsoon Predictability through Statistical Methods decreasing?
R. H. Kripalani, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Kulkarni |
| 9:00 AM | J3.2 | Statistical Associations Between African Rainfall and ENSO-Monsoon Circulations
Mark R. Jury, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa |
| | J3.3 | A Seasonal Climate Forecast Methodology for ITCZ-Associated Rainfall in Eastern Africa
Ron Lowther, Air Force Combat Climatology Center, Asheville, NC; and J. F. Griffiths |
| 9:19 AM | J3.4 | Seasonal Forecasting of UK Winter Storminess
Steve E. George, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders |
| 9:39 AM | J3.5 | Application of Markov Chain Model to Long-Range Temperature Prediction
Stephen F. Mueller, Tennessee Valley Authority, Muscle Shoals, AL; and Q. Mao |
| 9:59 AM | | Coffee Break
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| 10:39 AM | J3.6 | Comparative assessment of predictability over mid-latitudinal and tropical climate using statistical models: Example over North Carolina and Indonesia
Orbita Roswintiarti, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. S. Niyogi and S. Raman |
| 10:59 AM | J3.7 | Altered data distributions conditioned on seasonal climate forecasts
Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV |
| 11:19 AM | J3.8 | A methodology for adjusting error estimates during disaggregation of seasonal forecasts
Jeanne M. Schneider, USDA-ARS, El Reno, OK |
| 11:39 AM | J3.9 | Disaggregation of the CPC seasonal outlooks
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Lunch |
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| 1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Thursday
Session 5 Forecast evaluation |
Organizer: Tom Hamill, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 1:30 PM | 5.1 | The Representativeness of Computed Precipitation Skill Scores
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO |
| 1:50 PM | 5.2 | Confidence intervals for some verification measures - a survey of several methods
Tressa L. Kane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown |
| 2:10 PM | 5.3 | Application of the autologistic function with covariates to estimate an icing field
Greg S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and J. A. Hoeting |
| 2:30 PM | 5.4 | Verification of short-term forecasts from the Navy COAMPS over the Mediterranean
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur |
| 2:50 PM | | Coffee Break
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| 3:20 PM | 5.5 | Trends in skill of weather element forecasts in Canada
Richard Verret, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and G. Richard, G. Hardy, and C. Landry |
| 3:40 PM | 5.6 | The NWS QPF Verification Program
Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/OM & UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano |
| 4:00 PM | 5.7 | Long-range forecast verification
Normand Gagnon, EC/Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and R. Verret, A. Plante, L. Lefaivre, and G. Richard |
| 4:20 PM | 5.8 | Evaluation of probabilistic in-flight icing forecasts
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 4:40 PM | 5.9 | Comparison of different scoring methods for TAFs and other probabilistic forecasts.
Glen R. Harris, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom |
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| 5:00 PM, Thursday
Sessions end for the day |
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| Friday, 12 May 2000 |
| 8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Friday
Session 6 Probability and statistics in remote sensing |
Organizer: Doug Nychka, NCAR/GSP, Boulder, CO
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| 8:00 AM | 6.1 | Results of a Stochastic Quality Assurance Algorithm for Radiation Budget Data
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA; and T. Wong and K. A. Bush |
| 8:20 AM | 6.2 | Regional Climatology and Statistics of Surface Radiation Budget
Anne C. Wilber, AS&M, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr. |
| 8:40 AM | 6.3 | Optimal Blending of Land Surface Data Sets for Global Coverage
Alan Basist, NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. Shen and C. Williams |
| 9:00 AM | 6.4 | Spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of meteorological parameters
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton, VA |
| 9:20 AM | 6.5 | Assessing error in global atmospheric temperatures
John R. Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. J. Brown |
| 9:40 AM | 6.6 | Relationship of TRMM precipitation radar observations with TRMM-VISR and TMI observations
C. M. Kishtawal, Space Applications Center, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; and M. Tewari |
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| 10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Friday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:30 AM-11:48 AM, Friday
Session 7 Ensemble Forecasting |
Organizer: Lawrence Wilson, AES, Dorval, PQ Canada
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| 10:30 AM | 7.1 | On the Economic Value Of Ensemble Based Weather Forecasts
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus |
| 10:50 AM | 7.2 | A method for recalibrating and combining ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/UCSD, San Diego, CA; and N. E. Graham and J. S. Galpin |
| | 7.3 | Evolution of Ensemble-based PDF of Initial States
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD |
| | 7.4 | A Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter / 3D-Variational Analysis Scheme
Thomas M. Hamill, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder |
| 11:08 AM | 7.5 | Regime signatures in the phase-space tendencies and PDF of an AGCM
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO and Univ. of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and G. Branstator |
| 11:28 AM | 7.6 | Simulation of Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks: a multimodel superensemble approach
Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal and P. K. Patra |
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| 11:50 AM, Friday
1 Conference Ends |
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| 1:00 PM, Friday
1 Guided Tour of the National Climatic Data Center |
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