A heuristic examination of NC winter storm frequency patterns with various ENSO phases

North Carolina due to its unique coastline and proximity to Gulf Stream is prone to various winter storm activities. These storms tend to have climatologically excess rain and severe weather patterns associated with them. Additionally, due to their duration and associated winds, the coasts are vulnerable to erosion, property damage, and landscape alterations. For these and related reasons, there is a need to develop a storm climatology as it relates to NC. As a first step, it is hypothesized that ENSO has a dominating effect on the NC storm patterns. To study this further, a methodology is developed to identify the correlation of warm and cold ENSO phases with NC winter storms. Using the NCDC Extratropical cyclone database (1950 - 1995), the number of winter storms passing through a mosaic of equal-area circles arranged over NC and surrounding regions, including the Gulf Stream are estimated. This number is related to climatology and a percent difference is calculated for ENSO vs. Non-ENSO years. Study confirms an increase in monthly winter storms in NC for the warm ENSO phase with a larger variability in the colder phase. This may have an impact on the preferential storm tracks in ENSO and Non ENSO years and hence the vulnerability of the NC region for severe weather events.