| Saturday, 13 January 2001 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Saturday
Workshop Registration |
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| Sunday, 14 January 2001 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration |
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| 9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration |
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| Monday, 15 January 2001 |
| 7:30 AM, Monday
Registration Continues Through Thursday, 18 January |
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| 8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Monday
Session 1 Winter storms: basic research (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Melvyn A. Shapiro, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 10:00 AM, Monday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday
Session 2 Winter storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
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| 12:00 PM, Monday
Lunch Break |
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| 1:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday
Poster Session 1 Winter Storms (Poster Session) |
| P1.1 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.2 | A Climatology of Heavy Snowfall Events in Northwest Missouri: The Synoptic and Dynamic Characteristics of Heavy Snowfall
Michael J. Bodner, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and P. A. Browning, A. R. Lupo, and C. L. Berger |
| P1.3 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.4 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.5 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.6 | Process partitioning of rainfall enhanced by coastal orography
Allen B. White, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, P. J. Neiman, D. A. Kingsmill, and P. O. G. Persson |
| P1.7 | Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation events over Canada
Xuebin Zhang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and W. D. Hogg and É. Mekis |
| P1.8 | Modeling and Visualization of a Record Meso-Snowfall Event in Jackson, Mississippi
Paul J. Croft, Jr., Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and J. Hafner, R. S. Reddy, and P. J. Fitzpatrick |
| P1.9 | Case study and mesoscale modeling of the 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event over southeast Colorado
Paul Wolyn, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO |
| P1.10 | The Genesee Valley Blizzard of 4 March 1999: An Analysis Of Forcing Mechanisms
Jose A. Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and S. Rochette, J. Caughel, R. Ballentine, and A. Stamm |
| P1.11 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.12 | Forecast Skill of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 Mesoscale Model during the heavy precipitation event of 23–24 February 1998 in Southern California
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. M. V. de Carvalho, B. Bower, and D. Danielson |
| P1.13 | Improving the Understanding and Prediction of Heavy Rain in Land-falling Pacific Winter Storms: The CALJET and PACJET Experiments
F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and D. W. Reynolds, P. O. G. Persson, W. A. Nuss, D. A. Kingsmill, Z. Toth, and W. Blier |
| P1.14 | Orographic precipitation enhancement in the coastal mountains of California during the CALJET field experiment
Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, A. B. White, D. A. Kingsmill, P. O. G. Persson, and D. Gottas |
| P1.15 | Predictability of the 24–25 January 2000 Snow Storm with respect to model grid resolution and initial state
Fuqing Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno |
| P1.15a | A Planetary-Scale to Mesoscale Perspective of the Predictability of the 24-26 January 2000 U.S. East-Coast Snowstorm
Melvyn Shapiro, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Langland, R. Gelaro, and F. Zhang |
| P1.16 | The microphysical structure of extreme precipitation
Remko Uijlenhoet, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. A. Smith and M. Steiner |
| P1.17 | Predictability of mesoscale quantitative precipitation
Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller |
| P1.18 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.19 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.20 | Improved Rainfall Detection Using High Frequency Observations from the NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)
Ralph R. Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng |
| P1.21 | An analysis of significant WSR-88D precipitation underestimation over the Palmer Divide: 28 April to 1 May 1999 heavy rain event
Kathleen L. Torgerson, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO |
| P1.22 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.23 | A Real-Time Precipitation Monitoring Algorithm—Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPE SUMS)
Jonathan J. Gourley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Zhang, R. A. Maddox, C. M. Calvert, and K. W. Howard |
| P1.24 | Using low frequency Predictors for Downscaling to mid-latitude precipitation: two case studies in mountainous regions
Allan Frei, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO |
| P1.25 | Application of the NCEP/EMC Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to Predicting Extreme Precipitation Events
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du |
| P1.26 | Choosing the Optimal Configuration of a Mixed-Physics Ensemble for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud |
| P1.27 | Statistical Analysis of Global Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
Sanja Perica, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, M. Mullusky, and D. J. Seo |
| P1.28 | Hydrologic Re-Calibration Requirements for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts Following NWP Model Changes
John Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| P1.29 | Rainfall Assimilation and Numerical Forecast of the 25 January 2000 Snow Storm
Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Q. Zhao, Q. Xiao, and S. Peng |
| P1.30 | Anticipating Heavy Rainfall: Forecast Aspects
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart |
| P1.31 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.32 | The National Precipitation Verification Unit (NPVU): Operational implementation
Brett E. McDonald, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. M. Graziano |
| P1.33 | Extending the Precipitation Map Offshore Using Daily and 3-Hourly Combined Precipitation Estimates
George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and W. R. S. Curtis |
| P1.34 | Accounting for Uncertainty in Short Term Deterministic Precipitation Forecasts
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake, S. Perica, and D. J. Seo |
| P1.35 | Paper moved to Session 5, Paper number 5.2a
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| P1.36 | A Verification Approach Suitable for Assessing the Quality of Model-Based Precipitation Forecasts during Extreme Precipitation Events
Andrew F. Loughe, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, J. L. Mahoney, and E. I. Tollerud |
| P1.37 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.38 | Extreme weather events and their probabilistic prediction by the NCEP ensemble forecast system
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washinton, DC; and Z. Toth |
| P1.39 | Restructuring the National Weather Service Quantitative Precipitation Forecast process
Gary M. Carter, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and T. M. Graziano |
| P1.40 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.41 | The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center—Restructuring Its Products and Services for the 21st Century
James E. Hoke, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. W. Reynolds |
| P1.42 | The Canadian Hydrometeorological Information and Prediction System (CHIPS)
R. Paul Ford, MSC, Guelph, ON, Canada; and P. Pilon, H. Goertz, B. Murphy, P. Campbell, and Z. Cao |
| P1.43 | Evaluating forecasts of rain events
Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. L. McBride |
| P1.44 | The impact of resolution and ensemble size on precipitation forecasts by the ECMWF EPS
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza |
| P1.45 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P1.46 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monday
Session 3 Panel Discussion: Research Needs of the Private Sector (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Roger Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 3:30 PM | 3.0 | Panelists: Edward Johnson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Joe Friday, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC; Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Elliot Abrams, Accu-Weather Inc., State College, PA
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| 5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the day |
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| 5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar) |
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| Tuesday, 16 January 2001 |
| 8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday
Session 4 Summer Storms: Basic Research (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO
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| 8:00 AM | 4.1 | Mesoscale convective systems and floods: a review
Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Parker |
| 8:30 AM | 4.2 | MONITORING AND PREDICTING HEAVY RAINFALLS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
Robert A. Maddox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK and NOAA/NWSFO Visiting Scientist, Tucson, AZ |
| 9:00 AM | 4.3 | Capabilities and Expectations for Flash Flood Nowcasting
James W. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 9:30 AM | | Coffee Break
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| 8:30 AM-4:43 PM, Tuesday
Joint Session 2 Climatology of Precipitation Extremes: Observed Characteristics, Trends and Impacts (Joint with the 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses) |
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Chairperson: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS, Portland, OR
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| 8:30 AM | J2.1 | Orographic Thunderstorms and extreme floods along the western margin of the central appalachians
James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, N. S. Hicks, and Y. Zhang |
| 9:00 AM | J2.2 | Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part I, Spatial Changes
Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and S. E. Hollinger |
| 9:15 AM | J2.3 | Storm Precipitation Structure in the Eastern United States: Part II, Temporal Changes
James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki and S. E. Hollinger |
| 9:30 AM | J2.4 | Analysis of Seasonal, Climate, and Elevation Effects on Times Between Storms
James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH; and C. T. Hanson and T. Keefer |
| 9:45 AM | J2.5 | Using PRISM to Map Extreme Precipitation Events
Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and G. H. Taylor |
| 10:00 AM | | Coffee Break
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| 10:30 AM | J2.6 | Very heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States: Climatology, trends, and relationship with high streamflow and cloudiness
Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, and B. Sun |
| 11:00 AM | J2.7 | Midwest U.S. Trends in Precipitation Extremes and Event Return Periods
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL |
| 11:15 AM | J2.8 | Trend and Shift Statistics on Annual Maximum Precipitation in Ohio River Basin over the Last Century
Bingzhang Lin, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. T. Julian |
| 11:30 AM | J2.9 | SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Stanley A. Changnon, ISWS, Champaign, IL |
| 12:00 PM | | Session Adjourns for Lunch
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| 12:15 PM | | Conference Luncheon
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| 2:15 PM | J2.10 | NOAA Atlas 14—New Precipitation Frequencies for the United States
Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD |
| 2:45 PM | J2.11 | It Is Time To Update The NOAA Precipitation Frequency Information
Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO |
| 3:00 PM | J2.12 | Development of a New Storm Generator Model and Associated Precipitation Studies
James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH |
| 3:15 PM | J2.13 | Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Associated Streamflow in the Reynold's creek Experimental watershed, Idaho
Clayton L. Hanson, USDA/ARS, Boise, ID; and F. B. Pierson |
| 3:30 PM | | Coffee Break
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| 4:00 PM | J2.14 | Paleohydrologic estimates of convective rainfall in the Rocky Mountains
Robert D. Jarrett, U.S. Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO |
| | J2.15 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| 4:14 PM | J2.16 | Creative Re-Construction of Historical Extreme Convective Precipitation Events using Radar, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Conventional Observations
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| 4:29 PM | J2.17 | Generalized and Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Studies for Dam safety evaluations
Edward M. Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, Monument, CO |
| | J2.18 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| 10:00 AM-2:00 PM, Tuesday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 10:00 AM-11:59 AM, Tuesday
Session 5 Summer Storms: Prediction, Impacts and Responses (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Charles A. Doswell III, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
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| 10:00 AM | 5.1 | The NWS end-to-end quantitative precipitation forecasting process: Status and future plans
Thomas M. Graziano, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. M. Carter, D. W. Reynolds, B. E. McDonald, J. P. Charba, and M. Mercer |
| | 5.2 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| 10:29 AM | 5.2a | Challenges facing the operational quantitative precipitation forecaster when predicting heavy to extreme events (formerly paper P1.35)
Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Spring, MD |
| 10:59 AM | 5.3 | Flash Floods: Characteristics of the Precipitation, the Runoff, and the Social Response
Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO |
| 11:29 AM | 5.4 | Social Science of Flood Events
Eve Gruntfest, Univ. of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO |
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| 12:15 PM, Tuesday
Annual Meeting Luncheon |
| 12:15 PM | 0.1 | Details on Luncheon Speakers
Jim Hartz and Rick Chappell, authors of the book World's apart: How the distance between science and journalism threatens America's future |
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| 2:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday
Poster Session 2 Summer Storms (Poster session) |
| P2.1 | HPVCI—Convective Initiation
Paul J. Croft, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and D. Lu, J. Hafner, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and R. S. Reddy |
| P2.2 | The sensitvity of West African squall line development to land cover changes
Karen I. Mohr, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Baker, W.-K. Tao, and J. S. Famiglietti |
| P2.3 | Cloud physical process in heavy rainfall of Mei-yu frontal system in South China
Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and J. Yang, Z. Ruan, and S.-Z. Yang |
| P2.4 | The contribution of orographic rainfall to the extreme precipitation in Southeastern Africa in Spring 2000
Chris C. Funk, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and R. F. MacCracken |
| P2.5 | The Relationship between intense, short-duration precipiation and flash floods
Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO |
| P2.6 | Diurnal variations of summer precipitation between wet and dry years in the central U.S
Zaitao Pan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, R. W. Arritt, and T.-C. Chen |
| P2.7 | Characterization Of The Distribution Of Cloud Spectra For Thunderstorms In The Western Mediterranean Area
Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and E. García and J. L. Marcos |
| P2.8 | Extreme precipitation frequency in the Semiarid Southwest
Lesley T. Julian, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. L. Vogel |
| P2.9 | A Global Climatology of Thunderstorm, Hail, and Tornado Days
Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| P2.10 | Numerical Sensitivities in Convective/Nonconvective Cloud Interactions in MM5
Carlie J. Coats, Jr., MCNC North Carolina Supercomputing Center, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. N. McHenry |
| P2.11 | Extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America and relationships with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone
Leila M. V. Carvalho, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. Jones and B. Liebmann |
| P2.12 | Predictability of heavy precipitation induced by mesoscale convective vortices
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. B. Trier, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone |
| P2.13 | The sensitivity of simulated supercell precipitation to microphysical parameters
Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton |
| P2.14 | Potential vorticity streamers and their role in the development of mesoscale convective systems, part III: numerical weather simulations
Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena and E. I. Tollerud |
| P2.15 | Soil moisture and mesoscale convective complex development during the 1993 Midwest flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE atmosphere/land-surface model
R. David Baker, Austin College, Sherman, TX; and Y. Wang, W.-K. Tao, and P. Wetzel |
| P2.16 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.17 | October 1998 Extreme Rains Over South Central Texas
Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX |
| P2.18 | Overview of the 7 May 2000 extreme rain event in Missouri
Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo, C. E. Halcomb, F. A. Akyüz, and P. Guinan |
| P2.19 | Analysis Of Heavy Precipitation In The Region Of Valencia (Spain) By Means Of Ir Images From The Meteosat
Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and M. V. Fernández, F. Pastor, and M. J. Estrela |
| P2.20 | Synoptic and spatial variability of the rainfall along the northern Peruvian coast during the 1997–8 El Niño event
Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Peña, N. Ordinola, L. Flores, and J. Boustead |
| P2.21 | Big Thompson, 1976 to Buffalo Creek, 1996: Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.22 | The extreme east-central Missouri flash flood of 6–7 May 2000
Fred H. Glass, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and J. P. Gagan and J. T. Moore |
| P2.23 | MM5 Simulations of the Las Vegas flash flood of 8 July 1999: The role of SSTs
Dorothea C. Ivanova, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. L. Mitchell and R. Rabin |
| P2.24 | The Role of Dual Cold Fronts Aloft in a Major Tornado and Flash Flooding Event
Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Mitchem |
| P2.25 | Regional climate model simulation of a multi-week heavy precipitation episode in the central U.S
Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and X.-Z. Liang |
| P2.25a | Simulation of a mid-latitude convective storm initialized with bistatic Doppler radar data
Thibaut Montmerle, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. Caya and I. Zawadzki |
| P2.26 | Numerical simulation of the 17–18 July 1996 Chicago flood
Steven E. Peckham, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson |
| P2.27 | Capabilities and Characteristics of Rainfall Estimates from Geostationary- and Geostationary+ Microwave-Based Satellite Techniques
Joe Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C.-S. Liou, S. Qiu, R. A. Scofield, M. B. Ba, and A. Gruber |
| P2.28 | Three-Dimensional Features of Summer Monsoon Precipitation Seen from TRMM/PR and Latent Heat Release over South Asia
Akiyo Yatagai, National Space Development Agency of Japan/Earth Observation Research Center, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan |
| P2.29 | Comparison of TRMM and Rain Gage Rain Rates over New Mexico
Long S. Chiu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD and George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and Z. Liu, W. L. Teng, G. Serafino, S. Morain, A. Budge, C. Bales, and T. Wulff |
| P2.30 | Regional climate modeling of the monsoon season over the Rio Grande Basin
James R. Stalker, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and K. R. Costigan, J. M. Reisner, and D. L. Langley |
| P2.31 | Colorado High Elevation Flash Flood Producing Thunderstorms: Radar, Rainfall and Atmospheric Characteristics
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.32 | On the use of Radar data to verify the long term performance of the UK Met Office Mesoscale Model precipitation forecasts
Martin Goeber, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. F. Milton |
| P2.33 | An AMBER playback of the Kansas City, Missouri flash flood of 05 October 1998
Robert S. Davis, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA |
| P2.34 | Satellite observations of Pacific moisture surges associated with the North American Monsoon
Donald M. Anderson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. K. Berg and J. J. Bates |
| P2.35 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.36 | National Basin Delineation and Flash Flood Database Creation
Gina M. Cox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. T. Arthur, D. Slayter, and N. Kuhnert |
| P2.37 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.38 | Seasonal Variation in Multi-Radar Coverage for WSR-88D Precipitation Estimation in a Mountainous Region
Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. J. Seo, P. Tilles, and C. Pham |
| P2.39 | Evaluation of the Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) Flash Flood Algorithm at the Tulsa, OK and Sterling, VA NWSFOs
Ami T. Arthur, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard |
| P2.40 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.41 | Rainfall Estimation from WSR-88D Reflectivities Using Artificial Neural Networks
Seth E. Snell, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM |
| P2.42 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.43 | A new methodology of rainfall retrievals from indirect measurements
Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord and R. Treadon |
| P2.44 | Ensemble simulations of regional flood and drought climates
Zhiwei Yang, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt |
| P2.45 | Development of a mesoscale 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) system at JMA
Yoshihiro Ishikawa, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan |
| P2.46 | Short Range Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation over the Southwest United States during the Summer Convective Season
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and R. A. Maddox |
| P2.47 | The impact of model resolution and ensemble population on the detection of intense precipitation events
Frederic Atger, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France |
| P2.48 | Estimating extreme precipitation at high elevations in Colorado through mesoscale ensemble modeling
William R. Cotton, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. L. McAnelly and C. T. Ashby |
| P2.49 | Short-to-medium range forecasting of midlatitude weather systems using a mesoscale global model with uniform and variable resolution
Stephane Belair, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot and M. Desgagne |
| P2.50 | Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on convective system QPF in 10 KM ETA Simuations
William A. Gallus, Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal, I. Jankov, and S. Aves |
| P2.51 | Precipitation forecasts using the Battlescale Forecast Model
Jeffrey E. Passner, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and T. Henmi |
| P2.52 | Some aspects of severe weather in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo
Augusto José Pereira, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and M. T. L. Barros and J. B. N. Romeiro |
| P2.53 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P2.54 | The effect of different initial conditions on short-term rainfall prediction
Ana M. B. Nunes, Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil |
| P2.55 | Impact of soil moisture initialization on a simulated flash flood
C. Travis Ashby, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. L. McAnelly |
| P2.56 | Quantitative precipitation forecasting of extreme synoptic-mesoscale events
Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Darlinghurst, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie |
| P2.57 | Short-range forecasts of rainfall amount from an extrapolative-statistical technique utilizing multiple remote sensor observations
David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. D. Vibert and F. G. Samplatsky |
| P2.58 | Anticipating heavy rainfall: Climatological aspects
Robert Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. H. Grumm |
| P2.59 | Forecasting heavy rainfall in the Middle Atlantic region
Paul G. Knight, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and M. S. Evans |
| P2.60 | Criteria For Selecting Meteorological Variables To Be Used In Statistical Models For A Short-Term Forecast Of Thunderstorms And Hailstorms
Jose L. Sánchez, University of Leon, Leon, Spain; and J. L. Marcos, J. T. Fernandez, and E. García |
| P2.61 | Extracting hydrologic information from high-resolution rainfall forecasts
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, CIAMS, College Station, TX |
| P2.61a | On the Use of NEXRAD Stage IV Data in the Multimedia Modeling of Pollutant Transport
Brian K. Eder, NOAA/ARL, Research Triangle Park, NC; and S. K. LeDuc, A. B. Gilliland, and P. L. Finkelstein |
| P2.62 | Use of surface mesonets, radiosondes and profilers to predict basin-specific QPF and flash floods in complex terrain
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.63 | Evolutions in emergency reponse to extreme preciptiation events: hope for the future?
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.64 | Application of an updraft warm layer depth QPF technique to June 2000 flash floods in the NWS Central and Southern Regions
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.65 | Flash floods in the Caribbean: Environmental conditions and Mitigation
Arlene G. Laing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL |
| P2.66 | Post-Fire Flash Flood Prediction: A Difficult Challenge
John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Littleton, CO |
| P2.67 | California Flood Damage and The El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Preston S. Heard, Jr., Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and R. A. Pielke, Jr. |
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| 3:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Tuesday
Grand Poster Night |
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| Wednesday, 17 January 2001 |
| 8:00 AM, Wednesday
President's Symposium |
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| 9:30 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break |
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| 10:00 AM, Wednesday
President's Symposium Continued |
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| 12:00 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break |
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| 12:00 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 1:00 PM-3:30 PM, Wednesday
Joint Session 3 What do Climate Studies Tell us About Future Hurricane Frequency (Joint Session with the Symposium on Climate Variability, the Oceans, and Societal Impacts and the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses) (Invited Session) |
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Chairpersons: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; Ants Leetma, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
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| 1:00 PM | J3.1 | Historical Hurricane Trends and Variability
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL |
| 1:15 PM | J3.2 | Climate Change and Hurricane Intensity
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA |
| 1:30 PM | J3.3 | Coupled model simulations of hurricanes in a CO2-warmed climate
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ |
| 1:45 PM | J3.4 | Global Warming and Hurricanes
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO |
| 2:00 PM | | Open Discussion
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| 3:00 PM | | Coffee Break
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| 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday
Joint Session 3 Continued: Hurricane Mitch: Perspectives on a Natural Disaster (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
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| 3:30 PM | J3.5 | Forecasting Difficulties during Hurricane Mitch
Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL |
| 4:00 PM | J3.6 | Hurricane Mitch's effect on Honduras
Hector Flores, Director of the Honduran Hydrometeorological Service, Honduras |
| | J3.7 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| 4:30 PM | J3.7a | Trends in Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean
Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera |
| 4:59 PM | J3.8 | The reconstruction effort in Honduras
Curt Barrett, Manager of the U.S. DOC Mitch Re-construction effort, Silver Spring, MD |
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| 6:00 PM, Wednesday
Reception (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet |
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| Thursday, 18 January 2001 |
| 8:00 AM-11:30 AM, Thursday
Session 7 Hurricane Landfall Precipitation—Overviews, Our Problems, and Capabilities (Invited Session) |
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Chairperson: Robert F. Abbey, ONR, Arlington, VA
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| 8:00 AM | 7.1 | Overview of the Hurrican Landfall Rainfall Problem
Gary M. Barnes, Unversity of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI |
| 8:30 AM | 7.2 | An overview of the development of heavy precipitation associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry |
| 9:00 AM | 7.3 | Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Hurricanes: Issues and Opportunities
Frank D. Marks, Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL |
| 9:30 AM | 7.4 | Space-Based Rainfall Capabilities in Hurricanes Offshore and Inland
Roderick A. Scofield, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. DeMaria and R. M. del Alfaro |
| 10:00 AM | | Coffee Break
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| 10:30 AM | 7.5 | Hydrological Considerations in Hurricane Flooding
Glenn Austin, |
| 11:00 AM | 7.6 | Societal Impacts of Hurricane Precipitation
Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO |
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| 10:00 AM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 11:30 AM, Thursday
Lunch Break |
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| 1:00 PM, Thursday
Oral Briefing: Poster Session P3: Extreme Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones |
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| 1:30 PM-9:30 PM, Thursday
Poster Session 3 Extreme precipitation associated with Tropical Cyclones |
| P3.1 | Heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclone remnants in the Eastern United States
Michael P. Shuman, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and J. P. Koermer and S. D. Reynolds |
| P3.2 | Relationships between tropical cyclone attributes and precipitation totals: Considerations of scale
Charles E. Konrad, II, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC |
| P3.3 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P3.4 | Two slow-moving hurricanes produce vastly different rainfall patterns over the Alabama coastal area
Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball |
| P3.5 | Extreme Rains in South Texas Associated with Tropical Storm Charley (1998)
Jimmy D. Ward, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX |
| P3.6 | Numerical simulations of mesoscale structure and evolution of landfalling typhoon and induced torrential rain over Taiwan Island
Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China |
| P3.7 | Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T.-H. Yen and Y.-H. Kuo |
| P3.8 | Interaction of Hurricane Georges (1998) with Orography on the Island of Hispaniola and Its Impacts upon Excessive Orographic Rainfall
Qingnong Xiao, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, F. D. Marks, Jr., and K. Park |
| P3.9 | A modeling study of Hurricane Danny (1997) at landfall
Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell |
| P3.10 | Using TRMM observations to improve numerical simulations of precipitation within tropical cyclones
Giulia Panegrossi, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Tassa, S. Di Michele, G. J. Tripoli, A. Mugnai, and E. A. Smith |
| P3.11 | Mesoscale modeling investigation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf of Mexico for a case study of Hurricane Bret
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. L. Miller |
| P3.12 | Impact of satellite data assimilation on precipitation associated with Orissa supercyclone of 1999
Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and P. K. Patra, K. V. J. Potty, and C. M. Kishtawal |
| P3.13 | Prediction of extreme precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones
Robert F. Abbey, Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, and L. Qi |
| P3.14 | Multi-model ensemble forecasts of heavy rain events in Australia
Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia |
| P3.15 | Circulation patterns and rainfall associated with the Feb–Mar 2000 Mozambique floods
Rosalyn F. MacCracken, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. M. Thiaw |
| P3.16 | Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the GFDL Hurricane Model
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. E. Tuleya |
| P3.17 | Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes
Stanley Q. Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff and S. J. Kusselson |
| P3.18 | A Self-Calibrating Blended Satellite Algorithm for Estimating Heavy Precipitation
Robert J. Kuligowski, ORA, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and M. B. Ba |
| P3.19 | Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation for use by River Forecast Centers During Heavy Rainfall Events
Jay P. Breidenbach, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. A. Fortune, D. J. Seo, and P. Tilles |
| P3.20 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P3.21 | The distribution of convective precipitation in tropical cyclones after landfall
Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and L. F. Bosart |
| P3.22 | Radar-derived rainfall estimates for Hurricane Floyd over New Jersey
Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWS, Mount Holly, NJ |
| P3.23 | The dynamics of heavy rainfall in landfallen tropical systems
Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY |
| P3.24 | The quantitative precipitation forecasting problem associated with landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and J. E. Molinari |
| P3.25 | The impact of a coastal baroclinic zone on the distribution of heavy precipitation associated with Hurricane Floyd
Kwan-yin Kong, City College of New York, New York, NY |
| P3.26 | The September 21–23, 1999 rain event in the Maritime Provinces of Canada
William G. Richards, EC, Fredericton, NB, Canada; and R. Brannen and M. Campbell |
| P3.27 | PAPER WITHDRAWN
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| P3.28 | Flood forecasting in Honduras
Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and G. N. Day, R. Lewandowski, and S. Ouzts |
| P3.29 | Improving public response to hurricane flooding
James B. Lushine, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL |
| P3.30 | Installing Automated Weather Stations in Guatemala for Meteorology and Hydrology
Jason P. Tuell, Litton PRC, McLean, VA; and R. Lewandowski, S. Ouzts, and G. N. Day |
| P3.31 | Basic Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
Russell Pfost, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL |
| P3.32 | Graphically Depicting Threat Assessment Information for Flood Situations in East Central Florida
David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break |
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| 3:00 PM-6:00 PM, Thursday
Exhibit Hours |
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| 3:30 PM-4:45 PM, Thursday
Panel Discussion 1 Status and Future of Hurricane-Related Precipitation (Invited Session) |
| 3:30 PM | PD1.1 | Customer Requirements Related to Hurricane-Related Precipitation—Area, Duration, and Rain-Rate
To be Determined, |
| 3:45 PM | PD1.2 | Hurricane-related Precipitation Cannot be Predicted on Usefull Time Intervals—Only Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Makes Sense
Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA |
| 4:00 PM | PD1.3 | Forecasting Hurricane Rainfall Using Numerical Guidance
William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA |
| 4:15 PM | PD1.4 | Improvements Needed for Hurricane-related Precipitation
Charles Guard, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and M. A. Lander, W. F. Krajewski, and P. A. Kucera |
| 4:30 PM | PD1.5 | Numerical Model and Data Assimilation Improvements Needed for Hurricane-Related Precipitation
Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI |
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| 5:00 PM, Thursday
Closing Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) |
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| 5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends |
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| 6:30 PM, Thursday
Closing Keynote Address |
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| 7:30 PM-9:30 PM, Thursday
Fiesta |
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