Analysis continues on one of the strongest El Nino events of this century. The effects of this event were widespread with storms and heavy rainfall posing a threat to life and property to large portions of the globe. Portions of the world, particularly in the south Pacific and north-central Pacific, experienced a threat to life and property from the effects of drought. Several months of below average rainfall created severe drought conditions in Hawaii with record or near record low rainfall amounts reported in many locations of the state. This paper will focus on the forecast and analysis of the drought conditions associated with El Nino in Hawaii.
As early as April 1997, sea surface temperatures and weather patterns began to indicate the potential for El Nino. By June 1998 forecasts from the NOAA, NWS, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) began to forecast the onset of El Nino in the fall of 1997 and a continuation of these conditions into 1998. It was known through experience and further verified through research that drought is the main effect of El Nino on Hawaii and other portions of the Pacific Region in the Hydrologic Service Area of the Honolulu Service Hydrologist. A coordinated effort on the part of the forecast team under the direction of the Meteorologist in Charge, Warning Coordination Meteorologist and Service Hydrologist provided a constant flow of information including forecasts from the CPC to local authorities on what to expect during this particular El Nino. Many references were made that this El Nino was similar to the 1983-84 El Nino. The information was used as a reminder to many in the state and served as a benchmark to this drought=s severity. The evolution of the drought forecast and information dissemination process will be discussed.
As the period of below average rainfall that started in October 1997 evolved into drought conditions, updates on rainfall amounts were routinely provided. The Service Hydrologist used an automated rain gage network and records from the NWS Cooperative Observer Network to provide frequent rainfall updates. These data were provided through press releases, public information statements, faxed data, phone calls, and formal briefings to a variety of customers, including congressional staff members, the governor, and state and county emergency managers. The development of this reporting process, and its evolution and evaluation of how it served the needs of NWS customers will be analyzed and described.