The 14th Conference on Hydrology

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RECENT EXPERIENCE WITH ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION IN THE DEMOINES RIVER BASIN

Danny L. Fread, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. T. Braatz and J. C. Schaake

An ensemble streamflow prediction system is being used operationally to make hydrologic forecasts with lead times of a few days to several months for the Des Moines river basin. These forecasts not only account for precipitation already on the ground but also probabilistically account for estimates of future precipitation. This coupled prediction system greatly improves the capability to take timely and effective actions that will significantly mitigate the impact of major floods and droughts. The system also provides better overall information for use in managing competing water demands for irrigation, fisheries, hydropower and other purposes. The system uses every operational precipitation forecast product, including long range probabilistic products that is produced by the National Weather Service. This paper presents an overview of the system and reviews recent forecast experience

The 14th Conference on Hydrology