The 14th Conference on Hydrology

6B.1
SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY IN A COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and M. Heiser

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.


The 14th Conference on Hydrology