The 14th Conference on Hydrology

J2.6
MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER FLUX FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL

James R. Miller, Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, NJ; and G. L. Russell

Since there is a net flux of water into the Arctic region from rivers and the atmosphere, the long-term balance is maintained by freshwater export by the ocean. A global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model is used to examine changes in the freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean induced by increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The analysis is based on a 110-year control simulation for the present climate and a 110-year transient simulation in which atmospheric greenhouse gases are allowed to increase one percent annually. The model's water and ice fluxes are compared with observations where available. The model's mean annual sea-ice flux out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait is near the observed value for the present climate and decreases for the transient case. The changes in the net oceanic freshwater flux, including sea ice, during the transient experiment are compared with the corresponding changes in river flow and precipitation minus evaporation

The 14th Conference on Hydrology