Description:

There is an ongoing societal need to improve extended-range precipitation prediction in location, type, timing, and amount.  However, precipitation is an outcome of processes interacting throughout the coupled earth system; further, the water cycle provides a link between synoptic and climate, as well as mesoscale and planetary scale phenomena.  To improve precipitation prediction, the research community must trace the errors back to their physical causes and the representation of those causes in models.

This session seeks presentations on metrics and diagnostics that will connect subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction errors to phenomena and their teleconnections, such as MJO/ENSO impacts on the extratropics, Arctic ice distribution impacts on the jet stream, stratosphere interactions with the troposphere, and others. Such measures could help diagnose the ongoing model issues that need improvement, and assess that improvement. Metrics connecting processes across coupled air-ocean-land-ice interactions are especially welcome.