Description:

The biosphere is the life support system of the planet and contributes an estimated $145 trillion annually to human well-being, twice the global GDP, via the “natural capital” industries that trade in water, food, energy, and biodiversity[i].  Continuous observing networks both terrestrial and oceanic are now established, advanced ecosystem models have developed, in-situ biological observations are routinely real-time, high resolution and digital, and decision-based methodologies have matured in a realm that must account for behavior in addition to physics.  The interdisciplinary components necessary to “predict nature” and provide environmental intelligence for the outcomes of saving lives both human and animal, forecasting environmental changes critical to national policy and security, anticipating and adapting to natural crises, and delivering environmental equity are now possible.  

Ecological systems are tightly coupled to human systems and respond rapidly to human decisions. This coupled representation of ecosystem dynamics, human action, response, and outcome illuminates the challenges of predicting natural-human system states and behaviors, but also indicates opportunities to improve decision support and our understanding of human-natural system predictability.  Recent events that tie quality and sustainability of human lives and livelihoods with economic decisions on the ecosystem services of the planet are clear demonstration that the future of Earth System models must include an ecological component.  

The demand for operationalization of ecological predictions as part of the National forecasting infrastructure is increasing and now supported by programs and funding commitments[ii].  Earth System modeling and forecasting, the focus of a new National effort sponsored by Congressional action, is about putting the pieces together, and will be a focal point in the American Meteorological Society for years to come.  This is a timely opportunity to inform, engage, and connect the expertise of the AMS membership with the external ecological and life sciences communities in a broad dialogue on technical and infrastructure requirements, priorities, and policies required for operational ecological forecasts integrated within the Earth System framework.

The CWWCE/Board on Enterprise Strategic Topics/AMS Committee on Ecological Forecasting and AMS Committee on Environmental Security will present a proposed AMS Informational Statement on The Future of Ecological Forecasting to the AMS Membership for deliberation and comment.

[i] Costanza, R. et al. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change 26, 152–158 (2014).

[ii] Dietze, M. C. et al. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 115, 1424–1432 (2018).