Description:

In 2009, NOAA established the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project to accelerate the improvement of forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones and to enhance mitigation and preparedness by increasing confidence in those forecasts. Specific goals include reducing track and intensity errors by 20% in 5 years and 50% in 10 years and extending the useful range of hurricane forecasts to 7 days. HFIP has invested in improving hurricane forecast, high-performance computing, and capacity building in hurricane research and operations. Under HFIP, there have been significant improvements to NOAA’s forecasts through improved modeling, observations, and inner core data assimilation techniques resulting in increased accuracy in the numerical guidance for tropical cyclone intensity predictions. One of the major accomplishments of HFIP is the development of the HWRF model and its transition to operations and to the community. The system is now paving the way around the globe and removing the initial roadblocks associated with predicting intensity changes, dynamical prediction of which was nearly non-existent until 2009. HFIP has also built a capacity for hurricane research around the globe mature for NOAA’s next-generation endeavors.

The new HFIP Strategic Plan addresses Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 to further improve Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasting. The goal of the project is to develop and extend accurate TC forecasts and warnings in order to reduce the loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, with a focus on (1) improving the prediction of rapid intensification (RI) and track of TCs; (2) improving the forecast and communication of storm surges from TCs; and (3) incorporating risk communication research to create a more effective watch and warning products. These goals will be addressed through the development of a multi-scale, ocean-coupled atmospheric modeling system called Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). The HAFS is NOAA’s next-generation, multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide operational analysis and forecast out to seven days. This will provide reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with TCs, all within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan. Transitions of the legacy operational hurricane forecast models to HAFS are underway. We expect several presentations from NOAA and the HFIP community focused on HWRF and HAFS R2O advancements.
Convener: Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/OAR/AOML