Description:

Through collaborative efforts, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of weather phenomena of interest to aviation is constantly evolving.  Improvements to data assimilation and verification techniques has allowed for continued advancement of predicting clouds, visibility, turbulence, icing, and convection: all hazards that pose a threat to aviation.  Probabilistic forecasting is also being explored as a means of predicting risks and communicating probabilities associated with these hazards and their impact on aviation to non-meteorologist users, including Uncrewed Aerial Systems and Urban Air Mobility interests. This session will address recent progress and accomplishments across these areas, as well as examine standard and novel methods for the use of probability and statistics in the generation and evaluation of aviation weather hazards forecasts.