Description:

Key challenges in current models and procedures for aviation and range operational decision-making focus upon needs to overcome dependency on deterministic and experience-driven (anecdotal) solutions for highly uncertain, but high-impact, low-occurrence weather disruptions. Communicating this uncertainty to operational decision makers in terms they can understand to mitigate risks and enhance their operations or business planning framework is a significant hurdle. This session seeks to explore advancements in the practical application of probabilistic and ensemble-based forecasts for weather and weather hazards that support risk-managed responses for impact mitigation. Advancements in effective characterization, interpretation, and dissemination of weather / hazard forecast uncertainty in support of operational decision-making will also be explored in this session.