Testing Impact-Based Forecast Products to Communicate Risk of Severe Winter Weather in Alaska

The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is an operational product for the continental United States at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) that was developed in response to user needs for easily consumable forecast information that identifies impacts and severity of an impending storm. Interest in extending the WSSI to Alaska spurred a social science research study investigating the distinct needs of Alaskan stakeholders and the unique nature of Alaskan climate that require different and additional components. Researchers met with Alaska Weather Forecast Office (WFO) representatives from Fairbanks, Juneau, and Anchorage, along with other project partners to develop focus group scenarios specific to each of six regions: West Coast, Southwest/Bristol Bay, Southcentral/Anchorage, North Slope, Juneau, and Fairbanks.

Scenarios were developed around severe weather events, and NWS briefings and products used to build out the timelines of storm progression. The research team worked with WPC to create mocked-up versions of WSSI for Alaska (not yet available outside the CONUS) for inclusion in the scenarios. Six virtual focus groups were held in June 2022, recruiting stakeholders from each region including representatives from emergency management, transportation, aviation, schools, and more. Focus group participants completed pre- and post-session surveys and participated in a two-hour discussion about preparedness, actions, understanding, needs, and challenges associated with the forecasted weather and presented products. Data collected helped to understand the needs for weather forecasting products and what impacts matter the most to each of the regions, with a focus on the Alaska WSSI product and legend detail. The findings informed the development of a prototype Alaska WSSI product with further testing planned in the Arctic Testbed and Proving Ground.

This presentation will describe how a user-informed and tested impact-based forecast product can inform risk communication of impending winter weather and meet the unique climate considerations of the various Alaskan regions. An overview of the methodology and iterative approach, along with findings to date will be shared along with key takeaways concerning how such a process can improve product design, understanding of communication challenges, and ultimately risk communication to end users.