Developing Guidelines for Measuring, Defining and Fostering Innovations in Earth Prediction Systems at NOAA's Weather Program Office

This investigation is a part of research activities for my 2023 William M. Lapenta Summer internship at NOAA’s Weather Program Office (WPO) and was inspired by the WPO FY2023 Innovations for Community Modeling Competition. Through this competition, WPO funds dynamic research to advance forecasting methods for the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and to promote innovations in numerical weather predictions that enhance accuracy, efficiency, and reliability. My research answers the following questions to help set guidelines for how WPO and the weather community as a whole measure innovation: What is innovation? How can one define innovation in the weather and climate enterprise of Earth scientists, numerical modelers, forecasters, and the general public? How do government, private industry, academia, and other organizations in the weather enterprise understand innovation? How can innovation be measured? What initiatives are important to foster innovation in Earth Prediction Systems? How can we measure progress and learn from failures? The outcomes of my research will help WPO fund innovative approaches to developments in Earth prediction systems rather than incremental changes. This preliminary framework will provide guidelines for reviewers to ensure we attract and fund innovative proposals rather than incremental changes in future NOFOs that focus on innovations, and hopefully my suggestions will lead to the development of an ‘innovation learning agenda’ for the office. It will help identify opportunities in WPO initiatives to better align research with its mission of improving Earth prediction systems such as the UFS, and gain new perspectives from all members in the community. This presentation will also emphasize additional activities and efforts that WPO can implement to better foster innovation and help to draw in the rising generation.