Analysis of NCEP Probabilistic Products

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) produce and maintain over 100 probabilistic forecast products for a variety of different hazards, time scales, and audiences. There have been recommendations from some areas of the community to standardize the presentation of these products. An in-depth analysis and visualization of NCEP probabilistic products can help NCEP and the weather community understand these products before any attempt to standardize them is made. Important characteristics to document were identified, and then the products were cataloged using these set characteristics. Information about NCEP probabilistic products was obtained from the NCEP Center websites. In order to ensure that the characterization is complete and accurate, members of Center leadership were sent sections of the spreadsheet with their respective Center’s data for feedback. The spreadsheet was then revised and analyzed. To show the variety of probabilistic products that exist, “forecast funnels” for a number of different weather events (extreme heat, tropical cyclones, severe convection, winter weather, and flooding) were created only using NCEP probabilistic products. Multiple Centers were represented in each funnel, with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) represented in all funnels. Initial data analysis indicates certain trends in the communication of NCEP probabilistic products. The Centers with the most probabilistic products were WPC with 33 products and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with 27 products. When examined as a ratio, the Center with the greatest probabilistic to total product ratio is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), with a ratio of 1:1. Precipitation and precipitation-related hazards (rain, winter weather, flooding, etc.) represent the greatest portion of probabilistic products, with 37 products. Though inefficiencies in NCEP website organization made this analysis a likely imperfect representation of the product suite, it still has merit as a basis for future social science research, a reference for NCEP employees of different specialties, and as a framework for future standardization of probabilistic product communication.