A Comparative Analysis of NWS Partners' Forecast Information Needs Ahead of High-Impact Weather

This study is part of a larger project aimed at helping the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) ensure the forecast information they share is based on the needs of their core partners. If WFOs have a better understanding of what information partners are looking for in Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) products and how they are being used across decision-making sectors, they will have a better understanding of how to tailor IDSS for these partners. Furthermore, this study is meant to provide WFOs with more detailed information about what forecast information benefits their core partners most in preparing for high-impact weather. We examined how local decision-makers use NWS WFO-issued IDSS in their jobs. Specifically, we analyzed which forecast attributes are driving decision-making in core partners’ jurisdictions. Additionally, we determine the role forecaster confidence plays in partner decision-making processes.

This study is a comparative analysis of partners’ forecast information needs from IDSS across two NWS WFOs and a range of partners. WFO-1 data focused on live weekly and event-based webinars constructed by the office ahead of winter weather. This data was collected via one-on-one interviews conducted by researchers on this project, a total of eight interviews were virtually conducted over seven weeks during February and March of 2023. WFO-2 data are from a simulated weather event that was created by collaborating with forecasters. The event of focus was a compound event of convective weather and flooding, both components based on events previously experienced in the region. WFO-2 data was collected through focus groups conducted with emergency management and other local decision-makers from four counties in WFO-2’s region. This exercise was held over a two-day period in a hybrid format, imitating sharing IDSS on the day before and an update on the day of the event, which is typical of what the office would provide for an event of this nature, with an additional debriefing session with all participants. Interviews and discussions were recorded and professionally transcribed. Transcripts were qualitatively coded thematically. After inductive and deductive coding were complete, statements pertaining to the information partners were paying attention to and how it was used during decision-making were copied into new documents for further analysis.

Data are being analyzed to identify which forecast attributes partners use in their decision-making, when partners pay more attention, and how forecaster confidence plays a role in preparation. Forecast information and resulting actions will be analyzed for similarities and differences across and within sectors and regions. Additionally, we are observing how partners’ IDSS needs compare and contrast between winter and warm season convective severe weather. Data are also being analyzed to determine how forecaster confidence is presented and its importance for partners. Future work includes creating and running exercises with additional WFOs to analyze data from core partners in different geographical areas with potentially different hazard/impact concerns.