Protecting Lives and Preserving Trade: A Call to Advance Weather Forecasting for Maritime Navigation

Every foreign vessel and every U.S. vessel engaged in international trade coming into a state’s waterways is required by law to utilize a certified pilot. That pilot's role is to have a deep understanding of the maritime domain in which they are crossing in order to safely navigate ships in and out of U.S. waters. A cost/loss assessment must be made by each pilot before deciding to transfer from one vessel to another during adverse weather; stopping vessel traffic can have major economic impacts but moving ships in hazardous weather could result in loss of life and property.

Operational meteorologists recognize the importance of these pilots and how our missions align with regards to safeguarding commerce and protecting lives at sea. However, forecasters are sometimes left without the resources needed to adequately issue hazardous weather warnings given these complex marine environments. On February 3, 2023 this was particularly true when a dangerous storm brought 25 to 30 ft seas offshore NW Oregon and SW Washington. The Columbia River Bar pilots had to make critical decisions on whether or not it was safe to transfer and when to stop and start moving vessel traffic based on the local forecast. The unexpected, overperforming sea state eventually resulted in the United States Coast Guard closing the Columbia River Bar for 5 hours; a significant amount of time for an area that transports $24 billion dollars in goods a year.

Combined seas, individual properties of long and short period wave groups, anomalous waves, strong ebb currents, and the potential for breaking waves are often difficult to forecast, even in the short term. However, these features that make up the overall sea state can have significant impacts to the success of pilot vessel transfer and to the vessel’s route in its entirety. As the acting government agency responsible for issuing wave hazards we must advocate for an ensemble based, high resolution coupled model with wave-current interactions especially within these smaller domains. By informing pilots of the potential magnitude and timing of these hazardous seas we will enhance their decision making process. This will not only help to maintain the flow of commerce, but more importantly, save the lives of those trying to move it.