The Challenges of Air Quality Forecasting and Alert Communication in an Unprecedented Air Quality Season

2023 was a year of unprecedented air quality events across Minnesota. Not only did the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) issue a record number of alerts, but the frequent and prolonged air quality events created new challenges with alert communication and challenged existing air quality forecasting methodologies at the MPCA. Forecast challenges encountered by staff include fires at the edge of model domains, ozone formation resulting form lingering surface smoke, and inconsistent model guidance for smoke concentrations. Communication challenges stemmed from air quality alerts last days, smoke incursions causing significant impacts over several hours but resulting in a 24-hour average below alert criteria and responding to international media attention of smoke impacts. This talk will highlight some lessons learned from these challenges and will also highlight future research topics and internal policies that will need to be refined in coming years. Finally, this talk will address some ways the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has been working with other agencies to build a more cohesive air quality alert program. This includes working with other Minnesota state agencies, local National Weather Service offices, local media outlets, and other local/tribal government entities.