Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis of an Arctic Cyclone observed during the THINICE 2022 Field Campaign

Arctic cyclones (ACs) are ubiquitous features during the boreal summer and are often associated with strong winds for long periods of time, potentially leading to rapid declines in Arctic sea ice. A better understanding of features and processes that limit AC predictability may in turn lead to more accurate sea ice predictions. One of the main objectives of the THINCE 2022 international field campaign was to study the dynamics of ACs to ultimately improve numerical weather forecasts within the Arctic region. Windborne’s long-duration weather balloons were launched from Longyearbyen, Svalbard and Fairbanks, Alaska during THINICE 2022 to collect observations and vertical profiles of the Arctic environment. During THINICE 2022, an AC generated off the east coast of Greenland on 15 August 2022 (AC22), tracked into the Arctic, and remained over the Arctic Ocean for over a week. The first goal of this study is to determine the source of error for AC22 by using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate the uncertainty within European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts. Preliminary results suggest that the largest sensitivity associated with AC22 were to a TPV that was coupled with this cyclone. In addition, this study will determine how well Windborne observations aligned with the sensitive regions of this cyclone.