Comparing Simulations of an Arctic Cyclone–Sea-Ice Interaction Event with Various Sea-Ice and Ocean Configurations

The ability to resolve interactions between synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones (ACs) and sea ice in numerical models is hypothesized to be important for AC prediction. This hypothesis stems from the idea that the transition zone between sea ice and ocean (i.e., the marginal ice zone) is often associated with lower-tropospheric baroclinicity, which favors AC formation and intensification. AC–sea-ice interactions are important to AC prediction because lower-tropospheric winds and sea-ice morphology influence spatial distributions of surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes over the ocean adjacent to sea ice, which, in turn, play a key role in AC formation and intensification. The dynamical processes and physical mechanisms underlying AC–sea-ice interactions are dependent on the properties of the sea ice and the ocean adjacent to sea ice, so representing sea-ice and ocean properties in numerical models is expected to be critically important for AC prediction. Despite their critical importance, representing sea-ice and ocean properties accurately in numerical models is difficult due to data limitations, and it is uncertain how sensitive AC–sea-ice processes are to specific sea-ice and ocean properties.

This presentation investigates the sensitivity of AC–sea-ice processes and AC predictions to varying configurations of sea ice and ocean in polar-modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The simulations focus on an AC–sea-ice interaction event on 15–27 August 2022, which was observed near Svalbard during the Office of Naval Research THINICE field campaign conducted during 5–25 August 2022. The 15–27 August 2022 AC was associated with an upper-level trough, a cold-core structure, frontal features, and a low-level jet. Evolutions of these features, as well as AC position and intensity, are compared among experiments to assess the sensitivity of AC–sea-ice processes and AC predictions to varying configurations of sea ice and ocean. Analysis is focused on differences between experiments near the time of peak AC intensity, which occurred shortly after the AC moved from over the ocean to over the marginal ice zone.