Comparing WRF-Derived Methods for Estimating Tornado Outbreak Casualties in the US Deep South

Past research has focused on developing methods to estimate the number of casualties associated with tornado outbreaks. However, these estimations depend highly on the geographic location of the outbreak in question, with many of them focusing on the Great Plains. The US Deep South presents different climate and population characteristics, suggesting the need for a study focused on this area. To address this, WRF simulations of three 20th-century tornado outbreaks in the American Deep South were conducted, and the derived Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the lowest 180 hPa, 1000-500 hPa Bulk Shear (DLBS), and 1000-850 hPa Bulk Shear (SLBS) values were used to estimate the number of casualties if the same events were to occur today. Comparisons were made between this estimation and another estimation from a new method developed based on work from Mishra Et al. and Antonescu Et al.. This method uses demographic information to assess the vulnerability of the affected population and estimate the number of casualties. These methods were also compared to the observed number of casualties in each case to observe any trends. The casualty estimates varied based on the specific case and the estimation method used. However, caution should be taken with these conclusions, as there were several sources of possible error in calculating these estimations and a small sample size due to time constraints.