Towards Future Hurricane Modeling Prediction System: Hurricane Ensemble in Real-time on the Cloud

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) became operational on June 26 2023. Supported by Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) and Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO), HAFS based ensemble prediction system (EPS) was performed on the Amazon Web Service cloud to provide probabilistic forecast guidance to NHC forecasters in real time.

In this presentation, detailed configuration of the HAFS-EPS 2023 real-time experiment will be described, and the hurricane track and intensity forecast skills from the real-time ensemble will be evaluated and analyzed by comparing it to the performance of other experiments, as well as with the unperturbed control member. The probabilistic forecast products will also be discussed.