Anthropogenic Impacts on Future Hydrological Processes in the Village Creek Watershed: Implications for Water Resources Management under Climate Change

The challenges posed by climate change and human activity on future hydrological processes have significant implications for water resources worldwide. One such affected watershed is the Village Creek watershed in north Birmingham, Alabama, characterized by intensive residential, commercial, and industrial land use. This study endeavors to evaluate the changes in streamflow resulting from climate change and human activity, to develop adaption strategies for regional water resources management. The Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model was employed to assess the potential alteration in the water balance (simulate runoff), utilizing the average of three downscaled and bias-corrected climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5) for the mid-century (2050s). Before implementing these scenarios, the SWAT model underwent calibration (2016–2022) and validation (2011–2014) using monthly measured streamflow data obtained from within the watershed. The climatic elasticity method was then applied to differentiate the impact of anthropogenic-induced climate change. Parameters such as CN2, ESCO, SOL_K, GW_DELAY, and CH_N2 were determined as the most influential factors affecting the model simulation through sensitivity analysis The SWAT model demonstrated reliability in estimating aggregated monthly runoff, with NSE ≥ 0.60 and PBIAS≤ ±5 for both calibration and validation periods within the study area. The results indicated that runoff is projected to increase by 7% from the baseline to the mid-century, while evapotranspiration (ET) is expected to decrease by 5%, particularly in the upstream portion of the watershed where urbanization has led to a higher proportion of improving surfaces. Consequently, the Human Activities Contribution. Reveal that. The contribution to 57% of the variation and water yield is anticipated to increase by 30.2% during the same period. Specifically, under a high emission scenario during summer, ET is predicted to decrease by up to 20%, while water yield is projected to increase by up to 57%. Considering these projections, it is imperative to plan and prepare for these anticipated changes to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources within the Village Creek watershed.