Hurricane Ian: An NWS Tampa Perspective on Decision Support Services, Impacts, and Shared Community Experiences

Hurricane Ian made landfall as an intense, category 4 hurricane at 3:05 PM ET Wednesday September 28, 2022 on Cayo Costa, Florida, a barrier island along the southwest coast of Florida, before making a second landfall at Punta Gorda, Florida an hour and a half later at 4:35 PM ET. Ian was a deadly and extremely destructive hurricane that claimed 156 lives in the United States, including 66 direct fatalities in Florida. Drowning in storm surge waters was the primary cause of death. Deadly storm surge claimed 41 lives, with 36 of the 41 surge fatalities occurring in Lee County, Florida.

Lee County, with an estimated population of over 800,000 residents, is the economic center of the five county region that encompasses Southwest Florida – home to nearly 1.5 million people. Approximately 30% of the people living in Lee County are 65 years of age or older. Hurricane Ian produced devastating impacts to some of the most vulnerable people living in the state of Florida with ground truth measurements of 10 to 15 feet of killer storm surge, damaging wind gusts to 140 mph, and flooding. Inland rainfall in excess of 2 feet of water forced the inundation of communities and produced record flooding of area rivers.

Hurricane Ian is infamous with several records, including the costliest hurricane in Florida history ($113 billion in damages), the third-costliest weather disaster on record and, lastly, the deadliest hurricane to strike Florida since the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. Despite the horrific impact, lessons were learned from shared experiences with people who either fled the storm or remained and suffered the perils of Hurricane Ian and its aftermath. Social science findings and National Weather Service ground surveys also provided a perspective on public response.

Over 2.5 million people escaped the wrath of hurricane Ian following evacuation orders. The National Weather Service worked proactively to prepare the public through engagement with core partners in media and emergency management before, during and after the storm. Decision support services were targeted on risk and destructive impacts. Public perception was a factor in overall response based on lived experiences from past storms to impact the region and also a lack of understanding of how small changes in track can result in significant differences in impact based on the angle of approach of a hurricane moving toward the north-south oriented coastline of Florida.