The WindBorne Data Impact on GFS Forecasts

Accurate predictions of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and tropical cyclones (TCs) largely rely on the accuracy of model initial states over the ocean, where relatively few atmospheric observations are available compared to the continent. WindBorne Systems has developed a novel balloon-based observation system, enabling constellations of balloons to be flown throughout the troposphere for extended periods of time. WindBorne weather balloon observation collects atmospheric vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. It is a good data source compensating the data deficient over the ocean, and may help improve the accuracy of AR and TC forecasts. In this study we investigate the impact of assimilating WindBorne balloon data on GFS (global forecast system) prediction for ARs landfall during the winter, and for TCs track and intensity during the summer. We try to understand how the supplementary windborne observation influences GFS analysis and forecast error on AR and TCs. The superobbed WindBorne data used for this study is from 2022 winter (February-March) and summer (August-September). The NCEP GFS version 16 (GFSv16) is used to study the WindBorne balloon data impact. Global control experiments (with the same setting as in the operation) and WindBorne experiments (adding and assimilating WindBorne data) are carried out. Preliminary results indicate that WindBorne observation data help improve GFS forecasts over the North Atlantic Region in summer and have a positive impact on GFS forecasts for tropical cyclone tracks. The WindBorne observation data impact on AR during 2022 winter is relatively small. We will present the results in detail of 2022 WindBorne observation data impacts on GFS forecasts.