Advancements in the Global Tropics Hazards Outlook at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

In September 2022, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) transitioned the Global Tropics Hazards (GTH) Outlook from a subjective format (medium and high confidence outlook shapes) to a more objective, probabilistic format outlining favored areas of tropical cyclogenesis, above/below normal precipitation, and above/below normal temperatures across the global tropics. As part of this transition, the Week-3 forecast period was also added coinciding with the removal of the Week 1 forecast period. These advancements make the GTH outlook more consistent with other probabilistic based products at CPC and, with its new subseasonal scope, bring the product more in-line with CPC’s mission.

Predictions at these time scales rely heavily on teleconnections such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Convectively coupled Kelvin and equatorial Rossby wave activity propagating through the tropics also play a role in tropical cyclogenesis and convective anomalies. Tools to assist these forecasts were created using four global models (GEFSv12, ECMWF, CFSv2, and ECCC) available at the subseasonal timescale. This talk will focus on examining the new product, discussing the methodology and tools used to produce these forecasts, and presenting skill scores for the model reforecasts and real-time forecasts.

In addition, research on Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) prediction at these timescales is being conducted to examine the feasibility of including this new variable on the GTH Outlook. A summary on the status of this investigation will also be included.