Updates on Leveraging Community-Based Modeling for Operational Weather Prediction

NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) continue to advance its strategy of community engagement for developing the numerical weather prediction models that provide NWS forecasters with the best possible guidance. By engaging the broader numerical modeling community, NWS has begun leveraging the vast modeling expertise that resides therein, since each model developer offers a unique perspective about modeling challenges and possible solutions.

The goal of this community effort is to simplify NCEP’s operational applications by using a national unified Earth system modeling capability for operations and research, to the mutual benefit of both. The Unified Forecasting System (UFS) functions on temporal scales from seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S) on the order of months, down to short-term sub-hourly weather analysis and prediction. The UFS also works across spatial scales, from global-scale predictions down to high-resolution, convection-resolving local/regional scales.

Important progress has been made toward this goal. An upgrade to the UFS-based GFS (v16) was implemented operationally in November, 2022. A brand new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was implemented in June 2023 for use in the 2023 hurricane season. Additional upgrades continue the alignment with the UFS. A more detailed description of EMC implementations based on the UFS and plans for future implementations will be presented at the conference.

EMC is excited at the prospect of leveraging the modeling expertise in the numerical modeling community to improve NOAA guidance, forecasts, and other products and services. Better predictions can come from better models, and better models can come from the assembled intellectual might of the entire modeling community.