The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Recent Advances and Looking Ahead to 2024 and Beyond

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), first established in 2007 and revisioned under the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (Wx Act) in 2017, has evolved significantly over the years. However, the focus of the HFIP program remains supporting state-of-the-art research and development in high-resolution tropical cyclone (TC) modeling, and its transition to operations. The original 10-year goals of HFIP to reduce TC model track and intensity errors by 50% and to significantly improve our ability to predict rapid intensification (RI) have been met. Multi-year reforecasts also demonstrate that the new modeling system, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System version 1 (HAFSv1), meets the refined 5-year goals established in 2017, and is on-track to meet the 10-year goals for reducing track, intensity, and rapid intensification errors. HFIP supports leveraging novel observational platforms and data assimilation (DA) techniques to improve the analysis of TCs, the development of new products to aid forecasters and decision makers, and community outreach to ensure that end-users and the public understand how to interpret hurricane forecasts. Along these lines, we seek to improve hazard guidance and risk communication, based on social and behavioral science, to modernize the TC product suite, including products, information, and services, for actionable lead-times for life-threatening storm surge, hazardous winds, and freshwater flooding.

In 2023, a significant milestone was reached with the operational implementation of HAFSv1, featuring two complementary variants: HAFS-A and HAFS-B. HAFS is a technological advancement over the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, conforming to the new Unified Forecast System (UFS) convention, sharing the FV3 core with the Global Forecast System (GFS) and featuring interoperable physics drivers from the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP). As part of the HFIP Real-time Experiment (HREX), EMC, AOML/HRD, GFDL, and GSL have demonstrated prototype advancements to various HAFS subcomponents that are on a path to operations. Preliminary results showing verification for operational HAFS and the experimental 21-member HAFS ensemble from 2023 will also be shown.