Development and Application of NASA SPoRT’s DustTracker-AI model for Real-time Identification and Tracking of Dust in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center developed the DustTracker-AI model for identifying and tracking dust in NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery in a real-time framework. A training dataset consisting of day and night dust cases was gathered over the southwestern consisting of 115 distinct images and over a million dust pixels and 256 million no dust pixels. The dataset was separated into training (60%), testing (20%), and validation (20%). A simple random forest machine learning model was developed originally to overcome the problem of night-time dust detection and has been expanded to a comprehensive day/night model for dust identification and tracking. This physically-based machine-learning approach uses NASA/NOAA GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager infrared imagery as inputs to the model. The model achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels and 99.96% of no-dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. In conjunction with developing the machine-learning model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) partnered with NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices to evaluate the model for utility in weather forecasting operations during the 2021 and 2023 late winter-spring seasons. Preliminary evaluation has indicated the majority of forecasters described the DustTracker-AI probabilities as having added confidence to interpreting the Dust RGB and other satellite products to objectively assess the dust extent and trends and increased the amount of time the dust plume could be tracked into the night as compared to use of the Dust RGB. More recently, SPoRT tested small scale events associated with thunderstorm outflow and burn scars to determine the model’s ability to capture local events. . This presentation highlights design of the model, validation/evaluation of model performance, and example use cases collected during end user product assessments.