Linking past and future hurricane activity changes

Understanding and predicting hurricane activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall and track) changes is essential to developing adaptation and risk mitigation strategies, and confidence in prediction is often developed through evaluation of the past. We here explore past and future changes in hurricane activity. Past changes in global and basin-wide hurricane (at TC) frequency and intensity are dominated by the impact of the specific patterns of ocean temperature change that occurred, which differs considerably from projected future changes. Further, past and future multidecadal changes in TC track include substantial contributions from internal atmospheric variability, which can mask or exacerbate forced signals. Regional warming, and changes in winds and ocean circulation are also key drivers of regional TC-rainfall and sea level change, and can differ in projections from the recent past. That is, the connection between changes over recent decades/centuries and future changes over the next few decades is not straightforward - so that confidence in future predictions must be build somewhat indirectly, likely aided by fundamental understanding of processes and phenomena.