Effects of Atlantic Niño on Hurricane Genesis Potential

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific has a strong link to tropical cyclone genesis in the tropical Atlantic. Similar to El Niño in the Pacific, the eastern equatorial Atlantic also experiences a periodic sea surface temperature variability known as Atlantic Niño. In this study, we investigated the correlation between the Atlantic Niño and the tropical cyclone genesis potential in the North Atlantic. We used monthly mean data from JRA55 and HadiSST reanalysis between 1958 and 2019. We investigated the differences in cyclone genesis potential characteristic during different Atlantic Niño phases. Sensitivity tests of the genesis potential equation indicate that there may be significant changes in genesis potential anomalies across the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and US east coast with magnitudes of up to 2 tropical cyclones per season. The strongest areas of genesis potential variation due to Atlantic Niño are in the southern Caribbean and Gulf of Panama. These variations indicate a substantial influence of Atlantic Niño on the hurricane seasons.