6TROPICAL Prediction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Track Density over the western North Pacific

Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) activity plays a critical role in management of regional water resource and disaster prevention. Here, we introduce basin-wide gridded TC-track-density dataset for June through October from a track-pattern-based dynamic-statistic model over the western North Pacific. This dataset is produced by predicting the representative TC track patterns from the clustering analysis of historical TC tracks. The model combines dynamic climate predictors from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) with Poisson regression based on simultaneous statistical relationships during 1982–2022 between summertime TC counts and environmental fields to produce predictions faster than numerical models. This dataset is available for each summer from February and updated every five days which is the same as cycle of NCEP CFSv2. Long-leading forecasts and regular updates can increase the reliability and utility of this dataset. It eventually contributes to reduce damage to floods and droughts by region and use water resources efficiently.