Emerging Security Issues in the U.S. Coastal Zone Under a New Climate Regime

The body of literature on environmental security has been recently invigorated by a growing interest in climate change and its ability to exacerbate existing security issues. The heightened research and policy attention resulted in new studies on climate security and other socioecological problems such as migration, environmental degradation, and political instability. However, very few studies explore security issues solely in the coastal zone, which is becoming an epicenter of compounding impacts from sea level rise, more frequent and severe storm surges, changes in precipitation patterns, and extreme heat events. This presentation proposes a conceptual foundation for research and policy discourse focused on the emerging security issues in the U.S. coastal areas. It identifies priority concerns and system interdependencies that may undermine human, environmental, and national security in this unique setting. The approach relied on qualitative expert opinions elicited during a workshop using a pre-event semi-structured survey, the Delphi method, and scenario planning. The workshop participants were recruited based on their expertise in coastal resilience and related fields. The results show the participants' consensus about the U.S. coastal security geographic hotspots, coastal stressors most likely leading to security problems, human system aspects with the greatest insecurity risk, security type most affected, specific most pressing coastal security issues, and related uncertainties. Based on initial discussions, the paper presents different scenarios for Puerto Rico, Hampton Roads, and New Orleans and four possible outcomes with implications for environmental, human, water, and energy security.