Environmental Hazard Risk Assessment For Unmanned Aircraft System Operations

As the number of applications for small unmanned (i.e., remotely operated) aircraft systems (sUAS) continues to grow, comprehensive safety risk assessment studies are required to ensure their safe integration into the National Airspace System. Small UAS are particularly sensitive to weather elements, such as wind, turbulence, and temperature even under the current visual line of sight (VLOS) operations of limited duration. Future Beyond VLOS (BVLOS) operations will encounter additional challenges posed by existing environmental conditions (mountains, urban, GPS-denied areas) or rapidly changing weather situations including possible encounters with clouds and precipitation. These hazards may be a source of failure of one or more components of the sUAS. Increasing the safety of sUAS operations under adverse environmental conditions is crucial. In this study, we describe a method for quantifying risks to sUAS operations due to environmental hazards to ensure safer flights under current regulations. We identify the most important environmental hazards as well as their possible outcomes which are analyzed by quantifying the severity and the likelihood of each outcome. The approach that we follow is to demonstrate a bayesian framework that analyzes weather forecasts, population density, and structure density data to provide risk assessment information to sUAS operators so they can make risk-aware decisions. We will show how this system can provide a tool for the design of safe BVLOS corridors, and the assessment of the impact of mitigation strategies or dynamic rerouting.