Expert Metacognitions of Vulnerability in Hurricanes

Coastal areas have historically been vulnerable to hurricanes, and are only becoming increasingly vulnerable and less resilient between each season as storms get stronger and more frequent with climate change. Through interviews of 19 experts from the Gulf/Atlantic region (Emergency Managers and Meteorologists) in October and November 2022, this study’s goal was to see how vulnerability factors into the metacognitive decision-making that comes from using a prototype data visualization in forecast products. Learning how EMs and meteorologists consider these populations when they are making decisions in a hurricane event could provide context for how these meta-leaders use forecast graphic products. The formal, guiding research question for this study asks what metacognitions do experts (EMs and meteorologists) have of vulnerability for hurricane-prone areas? When shown a wind exceedance map graphic with overlays meant to help localize the risk (e.g., city landmarks or road networks), the experts were prompted to think more about the risk and vulnerability of the people in those areas on the map. Vulnerability was conceptualized from both a physical and social standpoint by the experts and applied to how they would use the wind exceedance graphic in a briefing to communicate to their community partners. This study provides documented insight into how vulnerability is thought by experts when they are shown a hazard risk map, and future work should continue to delve into the metacognitions of experts for how the public sees their vulnerabilities during hurricanes.