A Look at Hurricane Ian’s Surge - What Can We Learn For The Next One

For decades the primary safety message for hurricanes has been to leave when ordered to do so. However, many people will not leave even if the storm is well forecast. According to a 2022 Consumer Pulse survey from AAA, nearly 25% of Floridians would not evacuate even if under a mandatory evacuation order. A July 2022 CDC survey of 3000 adults along the U.S. coast found only 32% of respondents planned to evacuate if under an evacuation order. With the technology advancements in cell phones, we now have the ability to communicate with those that stayed behind like we have never been able to before. This begs the question, shouldn’t safety information be provided for those that stayed behind?

This dilemma was quite evident in September 2023 when Hurricane Ian struck southwest Florida near Fort Myers. In Lee County alone, there were 36 surge-related deaths. Sadly many of these drownings occurred in or near vehicles as panicked citizens tried to flee the storm at the last second, while others drowned in homes which were inundated by the rapidly rising storm surge. This occurred near many well-built, vertical structures that could have served as a refuge of last resort. Many appeared to have driven past these structures in an attempt to get off the island, or waited too long to seek refuge not understanding how rapidly the surge waters would rise.

This presentation will examine Ian’s surge damage, and focus on how the weather enterprise needs to work with local officials and social scientists ahead of a significant storm surge to develop ‘messages of last resort’ for those that stayed behind but will soon be fighting for their lives. They would not detract from the primary safety message of leaving while there is time. These life-saving, tsunami-like, messages would only be sent when evacuation would no longer be safe, center on getting vertical and out of the water, and highlight how rapidly the surge waters will rise.