Operational Challenges of Precipitation Type Forecasts

As part of the ongoing effort to improve precipitation-type guidance for forecasters, focus groups of volunteer National Weather Service forecasters were led by CIWRO/NSSL scientists in conjunction with WPC’s Winter Weather Experiment team. The purpose of these focus groups was to explore forecasters’ friction points with current precipitation-type guidance, and to give these forecasters the ability to provide input about a new emerging precipitation-type algorithm from CIWRO/NSSL, the Spectral Bin Classifier. Topics discussed included interpretation of precipitation-type algorithms, forecasters’ messaging of different precipitation types, the creation of advanced decision support tools, and the adequacy of verification tools in an operational setting. This paper will present results from these discussions, including the themes that emerged across the groups that can be the basis for future improvements in precipitation-type guidance. Notable themes include the interpretation of probabilistic precipitation-type guidance, forecaster involvement in the R2O process, and real-time verification of probabilistic precipitation-type prognoses.